2023 Phillies Post Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

It's doing damage when a pitcher wants to throw the first pitch over for a strike - a smart hitter is looking for that first strike FB, not swinging wildly.

[andyb]

The whole point of swinging at the first pitch for a good hitter like Harper is that it is the only pitch where he can be aggressive and still might get a strike. The disciplined hitter becomes aggressive (and technically undisciplined because he does not care if the ball is not a strike) because the consequences (an 0-1 count) are relatively small.

[Austinfan]

The consequences are NOT small, just look at OPS for 2-1 v 1-2 counts, and so on.
Same reason I hate when pitchers waste a pitch two feet off the plate that a hitter won't chase.

The reason you swing at the first pitch is many pitchers want to get ahead in the count and will throw first pitch FB strikes, and those are worth swinging at (b/c players have above average chance of success) - but only if it's a FB and a strike in your sweet zone.

Swinging widely at any first pitch negates the advantage of swinging at the first pitch.

[bkeich]

ALCS goes to game 7. Just what we wanted, now we need to finish off the upstart DBacks on Monday and hopefully we have everything lined up for both our “big” starters to make 2 WS starts in the first 6.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Interesting ALCS so far. The home team has lost every game.

[VoteForKalas]

I do not believe that has ever happened in the ALCS before and the only other comparable situation was the 2019 WS between Houston & Washington.

Houston would also need to buck more history to win Game 7, becoming the first team ever to win an LCS after losing the first two games at home.

[zambonir]

Apparently it is the first seven-game playoff series in any major American sport to go this far with no home wins. (Or rather the 2019 ALCS was until the home team won Game 7 so we'll see.)

They are both scary line-ups. And their bullpens have both taken some shots that would drive us crazy. Perhaps we're destined to see Hector.

[zambonir]

Orion Kerkering could have another late-inning shot in Game 6. There was some thought among Phillies officials that certain breaking balls played differently at a higher altitude. (Chase Field has the second-highest elevation among all MLB ballparks.) One of those pitches was Kerkering’s slider, which looked stellar in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park and then unusable in Games 3 and 4 in the desert. It’s also possible the longest season of Kerkering’s life is beginning to take effect.

Five Phillies-Diamondbacks storylines to watch in Game 6 of the NLCS

[Purduke]

I thought the best inning he threw this offseason was the one in Game 2 where Stubbs was calling his pitches -- Stubbs seemed to be around 50-50% on his FB. JT seems to be in the 85% slider camp and I just don't see somebody being successful throwing 85% sliders. Lidge's was far more vertical than OK's where you basically know a slider is coming and it it looks like it is headed over the plate just let it brake outside. Else, just sit on a slider and eventually you're walk or get something to hit.

I hope the off-season is kind to OK but he needs get him 97\98 FB much more into the mix and learning to throw it down in the zone too to complement the positioning of his slider. Then a third pitch - probably a change-up. Hope he's busy in Clearwater this off season.

[andyb]

That last sentence on the long season is important too. We should never have asked Kerkering to do a back-to-back since he had not all season. Guessing he is more of a 1 inning guy every 3 days from here on in unless they absolutely have to. This is where Rob really needs to go to the lower leverage guys a bit more (Soto, Lorenzen) when he has choices early in a game or in a game where the Phillies have a 5+ run lead.

[zambonir]

Honestly if you run a bullpen game every post-season series it seems like it will be a coin flip each time. Everything worked against Atlanta in Ranger's start and not much did in the Sanchez game. But if Soto or Lorenzen pitch you might get an equally bad result. He wasn't treating any inning like it was low-leverage. And won't be able to the rest of this series either (but hopefully Nola has a good outing and there is no tomorrow).

Next round, it seems crazy to keep both Lorenzen and Walker as extra inning/bulk guys if none of them are truly scheduled to pitch a pre-planned early outing after Sanchez or Suarez. Give Covey a try or roll the dice on Marte; the latter couldn't be any worse than some of the other guys, with the similar high-risk/high-reward stuff.

[Callison]

Purduke, you're hired.

Not buying the fatigue excuse. He didn't go from dominant to dog meat that quickly.

IMHO, Big Rob remains confident of OK and wants to get him back in a game to take up where he left off. Not unlike Hoffman.

[zambonir]

He was never really that dominant though. His outings were very carefully selected in terms of quality of opposition and leverage. His three regular season appearances were practically spring training-type games. Of his first three playoff outings one was meaningless, one was less-than-dominant (he allowed a hit and also walked Acuna on four pitches, even if he never should have faced him) and one actually deserves that adjective. Then came the next two.

If it's not fatigue and it's not altitude than the only answer is, he isn't good enough or able to meet this moment. I don't believe that myself, and clearly you don't.

Either way, wouldn't necessarily prefer to see Soto, let alone Kimbrel. I hope none of them have to pitch tonight. Or tomorrow.

[andyb]

But if Soto or Lorenzen pitch you might get an equally bad result.

But you have lessened the overuse on your key arms. So there is a positive paired with the uncertain result. We also DO know Soto is very good against lefties. He needs to be spotted against them to close innings even in high leverage situations.

[fish]

Something to note- Stott hasn't had a base hit that left the infield on a pitch over 90 mph since his single against Strider back in game 1 of that series. And he's only had 3 hits that reached the outfield off of pitches over 90 mph in the last month. There have been times when it looked like he was starting his swing as the pitcher released the ball just to catch up- resulting in uncharacteristic swings on pitches way out of the zone. I was pretty shocked the D-Backs sped up his bat with slow stuff in Game 5. It seemed like all his hits the last post season came on breaking balls.

[VoteForKalas]

Thankfully, be is playing stellar defense, but I agree we need him, Bohm and Casty to get back on track.

[zambonir]

Thomson was also using Soto to turn around some of the switch-hitters. They still got on base, but didn't do damage.

It just depends on the situation. If Nola gets chased after four innings and the Phillies are down 4-2 that's a low-leverage spot in May or August. It's not tonight. And by failing to actually use Lorenzen you really can't give him anything other than true mop-up (whether leading or trailing).

I suppose Walker would be a candidate to pitch tomorrow (along with Sanchez) if they use Ranger tonight. But they'll try not to.

[zambonir]

Yeah if he keeps hitting this way in the Series and Hoskins has returned you could make the case for a PH (with Sosa then taking the field) in certain limited late-inning spots, though obviously he'd be more likely to hit for Rojas or Marsh (with Pache or Cave then taking the field, depending how the roster spot was freed).

Bohm hasn't been on track the whole playoffs really, at least Stott had one huge hit and Casty's just been streaky. But at least they're doing it on defense too.

[andyb]

Hard to see us using Suarez tonight. We should have most of a full bullpen and if Nola is out early we probably want to save Ranger to start game 7. Doubt Walker is a candidate to start if we use Ranger. Probably a bullpen game if that is the case with everybody but Nola available. Sanchez could easily be an extra lefty in that situation and Wheeler would be good for an inning or two also.

[el-pietro]

...We also DO know Soto is very good against lefties. He needs to be spotted against them to close innings even in high leverage situations.

Unfortunately the Diamondbacks have very few lefties. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Pavin Smith are the only left handed batters on their roster and Carrol is the only one guaranteed to be in the lineup. The Phillies bullpen is maybe too left handed heavy for this round, though it does seem like they trust both Strahm and Alvarado (and Ranger) to get right handers too.

The only spot for Soto is with one or two outs and a lefty up. But you don't want Soto facing Marte as he appears to hit lefties better than righties (and hes killing us). That reaslistically means you can't send Soto out to face Perdomo who doesn't appear to have obvious splits, because if you dont get Perdomo/Carroll out then Marte is next.

You could send him out vs Thomas because then you have Longoria and Perdomo and that seems a reasonable part of the lineup to navigate, though they could counter with Emmanuel Rivera.

I'm probably reading too much into left/right splits. I'm sure pitch type is far more important but I don't know how to look that up easily (and you are dealing with smaller samples). Something to figure out over the winter.