2023 Phillies Post Season Discussion

[Callison]

The Phils look like a team that is just going to outhit you, but watching the pitching against the Braves, you get reminded how strong the pitching is. Was great to see Suarez get the W. Sports scribes everywhere were having a slobbering love affair with the Braves hitters and you got tired of it in June. When the Phils shut them down, the story of how good the Phils pitchers are gets bumped for the story of how the time off at the end of the season takes the edge off the higher seeds' games.

Dominguez is looking more and more like the shut down pitcher he can be. I've often thought the Phils would close games after 6 by pitching Dominguez in 7, Soto in 8 and Kimbrel in 9. Somehow, it never happens that way. Kerkering hasn't been around long enough to be "shut down", but he looks ready.

Congrats to Schram for the save, too. Was a huge moment. Hoffman was warming up behind him... mountain of jello Hoffman...

[phillychuck]

I don't get the contempt for Hoffman. He was a scrap heap pick-up of the Phils who went 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA for us this season, and posted a 1.5 fWAR, which is in the top 20 fWAR of all relievers. He was a very, very successful reclamation project by the Phils' staff, and he deserves much of the credit for it by working hard and listening to coaching. He deserves our respect, not derision. In my humble opinion.

[dicemen99]

Agreed, @phillychuck. I think the criticism is more leveled at the use of him in the highest leverage situation possible. He has worked very hard to get where he is, but I don't think that many (or any) on this board are likely to select him to face Acuna, Albies, or Riley in a tight game or with men on base. And that is not after the fact, 20/20 hindsight, at least for myself. I've never really gotten comfortable with Hoffman in a pressure situation. Clean start to an inning, up 2+, better yet 3+, in the 7th, yeah, ok, that's the extent of my comfort with him. Which is a great success for him considering where he started this year.

You can spout all the numbers you want, but Kimbrel and Seranthony would be my first choices there, no matter the struggles they had down the stretch. They've done it before, which counts for something in these pressure-packed situations.

Of course, I'm the same guy screaming at my TV about Alvarado and Kimbrel choking it up last night, lol.

[Austinfan]

Philly fans are just spoiled by Brad Lidge's sensational season - but you rarely see a RP pitch like that for a whole season and post-season. There are many a half dozen RPs in baseball history that have had years like that more than once in their careers.

I think the pressure was getting to Alvarado, all of a sudden he's overthrowing and yanking everything wide.
Kimbrel was also overthrowing - he should know better - walks are verboten when you have a lead, take a chance you get hit.
Same reason Thompson is spotting Kerkering - he may be the closer next season, but right now he's still green.
SD is still trying to find his groove.

[zambonir]

Hoffman was better than Seranthony for much of the season and he's also much better than Soto (who is only above-average -but by a lot - against lefties). I don't trust him any less than Kimbrel especially since he has more velocity. And once upon a time he was a more valued prospect than just about everyone else in this pen. I would say Kimbrel may have even pitched worse yesterday than Hoffman did on Monday... but Riley hit a home run whereas Acuna was robbed of a three-run double by Rojas. Kimbrel has been there before and then some but he's also been the shakiest off-and-on (both in results and stuff). For multiple seasons.

But agreed that SD seems to have climbed back up the pecking order and that's fantastic.

As for Kerkering, it's obvious the extremely capable Phillies coaching staff does not share the opinion that he's ready for the biggest spots. And there's nothing wrong with that. He's being used judiciously and he will still pitch a key inning or two this week. It just won't be in the very highest-leverage spots if they can help it. His work in this series was a perfect step towards bigger things, especially against a less imposing offensive team.

[andyb]

It is interesting to look at the number of combined saves and holds versus the number of save opportunities on the year. Blowing a hold gets one a blown save, so save percentage is a mediocre stat. Looking at our 6 short relievers Seranthony is really the only one who has blown a large number of opportunities.

Kimbrel - 23 Saves, 7 Holds, 5 Blown Saves = 85.7% success
Alvarado - 10 Saves, 11 Holds, 2 Blown Saves = 91.3% success
Soto - 3 Saves, 24 Holds, 3 Blown Saves = 90.0% success
Dominguez - 2 Saves, 14 Holds, 7 Blown Saves = 69.6% success
Strahm - 2 Saves, 11 Holds, 3 Blown Saves = 81.3% success
Hoffman - 1 Save, 11 Holds, 2 Blown Saves = 85.7% success

This obviously does not account for tie games or keeping losing margins close, but it is still a good picture. Soto looks even better than anticipated though the caveat there is that he has had a number of short 1-2 out outings finishing an inning and has let some games get out of hand.

Add Kerkering and this is just a really good bullpen.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

Do you really think that Rojas robbed Acuna? It really was fairly routine, it's just that Rojas got a little confused for some reason. It wasn't like the catch Michael Harris II made in game 2.

[Austinfan]

Have to see the analysis (probability of the catch), with Rojas, he makes tough catches look routine b/c of his tremendous range.

[andyb]

Yeah it looked like Rojas lost it for a moment or thought it was hit further than it actually was. He got a decent jump but seemed to hesitate getting up to full speed going after it. It was not a ball with close to a 100% catch rate, but I imagine it was 80%+ (meaning Marsh probably gets it too).

[Austinfan]

It was also close to the wall, so it's a matter of tracking the ball but also being aware of the wall (don't want to get hurt, don't want a collision to jar the ball loose).

[zambonir]

Well, yeah he may have made it a little harder at the end but it still required some incredible range, and some athleticism beyond just the speed to make up for his misjudgment.

The hit probability was 47%. Casty's was 55%. Exit velocity a lot higher (108 to 97.5) on the Castellano fly ball.

Riley's home run was 98.5% exit velocity - most of which was generated by Hoffman (but the same was true of Kimbrel).

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

okay, well, it wasn't routine, like when the ball flies right to the outfielder with him moving to get it. Schwarber doesn't catch it, most likely, but certainly Marsh, Pache, and Casty do.

[zambonir]

I'm not so sure Marsh catches that if he's playing CF. And Casty certainly doesn't get to it. Plus it's a home run if it's hit anywhere else.

[dicemen99]

Those are some very good numbers, although not all saves (or blown saves) are equal.

Anecdotally, I think SAD was exposed to a lot more very high-leverage situations this season than Soto, Strahm, and Hoffman which contributes to his lower success rate. I could be wrong on that, but just my impression.

He certainly had some struggles this year, but when he's right there's nobody I would rather have out there facing a top RH guy like Acuna, Riley, Ozuna, not to mention guys like Betts, Machado, Trout, etc.

You ask me who I want facing guys like that, Hoffman or SAD? It's no contest. Again, this is not 20/20 hindsight. He could be going through a rough spot and I'd still want him in there against guys like that. I bet you would get a similar answer if you queried those batters about who they would rather face in a big spot.

Kerkering? Going to be good, but not ready for that yet.

[zambonir]

For sure, leverage, opposing batter, opposing team and inning (if you put any stock in that) all have to be considered if you drill down.

You are basically making the same argument for Seranthony that Thomson is probably going to be making for starting Taijuan Walker over Sanchez at some point.

[andyb]

If things don't blow up I imagine Rob is thinking like this with his rotation:

1 - Wheeler
2 - Nola
3 - Suarez (with Lorenzen backing him up)
4 - Walker (with Sanchez backing him up though Walker is on a shorter leash than Suarez).

Obviously bullpen usage can blow up the potential tandems in spots 3 and 4, but ideally one wants to flip the lineup L/R so those combos make sense. We could also have short relievers finish the inning when a starter gets pulled to allow the tandem long relievers to start an inning.

[zambonir]

Matt just mentioned this on Twitter, Strahm might make a good opener for Walker (he can get Carroll, and he's good against righties too).

It really will be quite different from the last series given both its length and lack of off-days. I'm sure you're right that Sanchez and Lorenzen could be needed in Arizona with three straight games.

[BostonRoss]

I think the love for the Braves offense was well deserved. That makes what the Phillies pitching did (holding them to <3 runs per game, with no slugfests, even more impressive. Every starting pitcher had a good outing.

[Lucky_Beagle]

t is interesting to look at the number of combined saves and holds versus the number of save opportunities on the year. Blowing a hold gets one a blown save, so save percentage is a mediocre stat. Looking at our 6 short relievers Seranthony is really the only one who has blown a large number of opportunities.

Kimbrel - 23 Saves, 7 Holds, 5 Blown Saves = 85.7% success
Alvarado - 10 Saves, 11 Holds, 2 Blown Saves = 91.3% success
Soto - 3 Saves, 24 Holds, 3 Blown Saves = 90.0% success
Dominguez - 2 Saves, 14 Holds, 7 Blown Saves = 69.6% success
Strahm - 2 Saves, 11 Holds, 3 Blown Saves = 81.3% success
Hoffman - 1 Save, 11 Holds, 2 Blown Saves = 85.7% success

This obviously does not account for tie games or keeping losing margins close, but it is still a good picture. Soto looks even better than anticipated though the caveat there is that he has had a number of short 1-2 out outings finishing an inning and has let some games get out of hand.

Add Kerkering and this is just a really good bullpen.

Keep in mind it is often easier to get a "blown save" trying to earn a hold than a save. Saves typically have a pitcher starting with a clean inning. Often a "middle relief or set up man" is brought in with the runner on base who can tie the game. Of course sometimes a pitcher gets a hold when he allows a base runner or two and the next runner gets a blown save for given up a SF or even a DP!

Stats only tell a part of any story!

[DurhamBull]

Do you really think that Rojas robbed Acuna? It really was fairly routine, it's just that Rojas got a little confused for some reason. It wasn't like the catch Michael Harris II made in game 2.

Michael Harris II also made an excellent catch of Rojas' shallow fly to CF in game 4 that would have scored a run.