2023 Phillies Post Season Discussion

[Aquapong]

Mlb app has Elder as the starter. He’s seen us 2x. One excellent start in June and more recently a short outing when he gave up 4 earned.

I feel like we need this one. Nola has got to keep the ball down and make them run the bases instead of homering. We should be able to out slug them.

Beating Strider 2x is a tall task. I wouldn’t want to have to do it tomorrow facing elimination.

[Patchmk88]

Yea this is the decider for me. If we win it, I think we have a really good chance to win the series. If we lose it, I think it is gonna be extremely hard to win two in a row.

[el-pietro]

Elder has been poor for a while now. His season line looks decent, ERA of 3.81, FIP of 4.42.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bryce-elder/27779/splits?position=P&season=2023
Mar/Apr ERA 2.17
May ERA 1.72
Jun ERA 3.56
Jul ERA 5.96
Aug ERA 4.88
Sep/Oct ERA 5.68

I would imagine we will see an approach from the Braves similar the Phillies in game one. A short outing from Elder followed by a bunch of pitchers.

[andyb]

I would imagine we will see an approach from the Braves similar the Phillies in game one. A short outing from Elder followed by a bunch of pitchers.

Yeah, they clearly want to get to Strider tomorrow and get 7 innings from him then. Everyone's available today and they might try a different pitcher each of the first 3 times around the lineup.

[zambonir]

Would be good night to finally get that lead-off Schwarbomb.

[LoneStarPhan]

Would be good night to finally get that lead-off Schwarbomb.

Will be great to start game 4 against the Braves tomorrow.

[zambonir]

Sure why not, another righty eh?

[Aquapong]

Rojas needs to sit a game. Time for Cave to get a shot in LF and Marsh in CF.

Keep it simple and start Suarez or do we do some opener type stuff? I imagine Walker is very much available, along with Hoffman, Kimbrel, Sanchez, Soto, and Alvarado.

[zambonir]

Might be worth trying against Strider but I don't imagine Cave would do any better. Rojas isn't in the line-up for his bat. And Marsh was really good in LF tonight. Cave's not as good.

Thomson already said Suarez is starting. He could change his mind before he has to make it official but I reckon he trusts him enough to face those righties one time.

Seranthony will be available. Strahm too. Maybe not Kerkering (due to his lack of experience pitching back-to-backs as well as in general). Lorenzen was warming up tonight though I don't imagine he's a preference.

Hard for Soto or Sanchez to get in a game where they might have to face a big righty (Soto because he's not good Sanchez because he hasn't been relieving. But if they need two innings in the middle, maybe.)

[Docs]

Lorenzen pitched the ninth.

I think it would be interesting to start a reliever to go through the first, then ranger could face the top of the lineup for the first time in the fourth and possibly pitch the fifth and sixth innings too. Rob lied to ranger before game two it’s possible he is lying to us now!

[zambonir]

yeah I was at the game but my 81 year-old Dad with a two-hour drive ahead of him decided not to stay for the celebratory end so I missed him actually pitching.

I agree. But there's a hard deadline tomorrow fairly early in the day, not possible to actually trick the Braves.

[andyb]

I would not be shocked if they had Walker ready to start the 3rd or 4th inning if they decide it is a short outing for Suarez. Make them pinch hit for Pillar early so a LHP can face him later. Walker and Sanchez are there for a reason and one of them being a bridge to the 6th or 7th inning is very possible tomorrow.

[Aquapong]

Whomever wins this series will host the Diamondbacks.

[zambonir]

DBacks romp. Geez. Phillies still not there yet but I didn't even put NLCS Games 1 and 2 on my calendar (I have tickets for "home game 1").

[Aquapong]

Game time tomorrow now at 8:07pm.

[andyb]

Not to think too far ahead, but the Phillies, Texas, and Houston are all 90-72. Phillies got swept by Texas to open the year but won the Houston series 2-1. Not sure if division champ status would give Houston an edge in that home field tie-breaker.

[bkox]

Not sure if division champ status would give Houston an edge in that home field tie-breaker.

T-Mac tweeted earlier that we would have home field against Houston.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't want to think too far ahead either but the tiebreaker - somewhat incredibly IMO but I guess it's easy to do now with the current schedule - is head-to-head. Turns out it would have been nice to win one of those games in the Mets doubleheader. If it was our team that had won its division and it counted for nothing against the Astros I know I wouldn't like it. Also the NL won the dang All-Star game!

[Austinfan]

Why wouldn't you start Ranger? It's not like he had a bad outing last game, or when healthy, a bad season.
He's rested and should be able to give you 5 innings.

[andyb]

Why wouldn't you start Ranger?

They are going to start him because they can do mostly a bullpen game behind him and he has earned it.

There could be baseball reasons to not start him though if you really wanted to get 6 or 7 innings out of 2 non-short relievers. In that scenario you might have Walker start (for which he is only suited) and then Ranger relieve the second time around the lineup. That would get you into the later innings where you could finish with the short relievers (and not even need Seranthony and Kerkering).