2023 Phillies/MLB Trade Deadline Speculation/Discussion

[zambonir]

I don't think Thomson is really what changed the season though. He pushed some buttons, and Girardi wasn't going to take them there certainly, but players eventually finding their groove, an easier schedule, and trade deadline additions - plus a lot of luck - are what got them there. This year's team in June is just as good as last year's team in June w/ no managerial change, and last year's team in September was just as bad as last year's team in April despite a new manager and roster changes. It is a long season. Granted, many of the things - the schedule and the luck especially - may not favor them this year.

I think your examples from '93 and '07 favor Painter, but not Muzziotti. The '93 team had a huge hole at shortstop. This team doesn't actually have a huge hole in the OF (like you say, Pache is even working out). Just some potential pieces to move around/roles to fill. Anyway, if we are going to anecdote I can provide nine failures for every one success.

In any case right now the question is do you trust Jake Cave to hit like he is in AAA or do you trust Muzziotti to do so? At least with Muzziotti it would be his first look. But this team still needs power (and RH power) more than it needs a major defensive upgrade in the OF. It just needs anyone that isn't Schwarber, and that all still can't fixed before 8/1 unless Harper rushes into 1B (and he's got his own problems clearly).

[allentown]

I can provide nine failures for every one success.

As can I with deadline acquisitions. Bringing guys up from the minors doesn't cost a prospect.

[zambonir]

Ha true, though I think a lot more deadline acquisitions succeed individually. They just don't change the fortune of the team.

The Phillies can't keep all these players though. Some of what they do at the deadline will essentially be compression trades, even if three months early. Cave, Muzziotti, Marsh, Pache, Rojas and De La Cruz (who will have to be protected this time) won't all be on the 40 next year.

[andyb]

Look at Hall's BB/K ratio in AAA. 42/100 last year. 13/14 this year. Still SSS this year, but one could argue that Hall has improved on one of his big weaknesses last year (and he was pretty good in AAA).

He is the easy move to make now. Just swap him for Clemens and the only thing lost is his positional flexibility which is duplicated with Sosa and Harrison anyway.

I really don't know if this organization needs to make a big move. It probably would be nice to be another 5 games over .500 before we have to decide.

[zambonir]

I think it's a business decision as much as anything. Attendance has been incredible. Will that last if they fade, or signal they aren't going for it? I agree that in reality the path to the 6th wild card is probably the same either way, and they should not be making moves with the idea that they can get the fourth. The Giants and Dodgers already seem a cut above the other wild card wannabes too. But I'm not sure it matters if they are .520 or .570 at the deadline. Like, I wouldn't be any more aggressive pursuing the 4th seed than I would pursuing the 6th when it can all go either way.

For sure, Hall needs to come up. If he hadn't gotten hurt he never would have gone down. If they don't take him to Chicago then by the weekend.

[bkox]

The thought no one brings up in the CF discussion... if we feel Muzziotti can hold his own now.... wouldnt Marsh be a huge trade chip? Regardless of his slump, hes been worth 1.7 WAR (which leads the Phillies hitters according to fangraphs and is 4th according to BBref)

In terms of CFers.. hes 7th in all of MLB in OPS, 3rd in OBP, 5th in SLG, 7th in hits, 6th in doubles and tied for 7th in WAR

The only reason I bring this up is because just a few days ago there were people in the season discussion thread advocating benching him or even reminding people that he has options left. If people feel hes actually replaceable.. then he might be a big trading chip.

[zambonir]

Nothing should be off the table but that doesn't feel like a deadline move. But this is where the front office really has to earn its money with the internal scouting. Pache can't be optioned, is he at least a 4th OF and potential starter for the next two years? Certainly his prospect pedigree is better than just about anyone else on the roster (including Bohm and Stott) before he hit the wall in MLB. And so far this front office appears to have been wrong about Sosa - i.e. he is not a starter .

I still think the best 2024 OF would be Marsh in LF, Rojas and Pache in CF and Harper in RF (ok not best but still don't believe he's done playing there). Marsh has shown hints of being able to hit well enough for left field if he's also great defensively (which he isn't in CF). Could Muzziotti? I don't see how the Phillies have time to find out this year.

[zambonir]

Murphy doesn't really dive into the tweaks the Phillies could use, whether internal or external. Merely argues that if Harper comes around (he will), Nola is better than he was (velocity trending up) and Turner finds his game (which seems to happening) that matters more. Agreed, though I think if those things happen that makes it more not less likely that they get aggressive, whereas if they don't they merely do a lot less (not really seeing a SELL scenario).

Phillies have three big reasons to be patient at this year’s trade deadline

[Callison]

George Allen, a great HC for Washington now-Commanders, first said, "The future is now." As surely as the Phils have reason to wait for some players to reach their ML potential, so too there is tons of really attractive trade bait out there. Not just trade bait, season-changing, decade-changing trade bait. Ohtani - two players in one - if the Phils could somehow sign him... it's a great dream to keep until it comes true or is taken away. Goldschmidt - the Cards are sinking like stones, and though they say they won't trade him, everything and every player has a price. A power-hitting All Star added to the Phils' lineup that plays 1B where the Phils have a desperate need... would it be more than we deserve?

Then the non-longshots - Diaz, Red's reliever. Everybody here knows the bottom third of the Phils' relievers - nuff said - and this guy might make the Phils' relievers the strongest in MLB. Candelario has been mentioned previously - last I checked he was hitting some .329. The Phils' might be able to squeeze him into the lineup somewhere.

You guys that don't know how to dream, I'm here for you.

[zambonir]

The Reds are in first place and ahead of the Phillies! They aren't trading Diaz.

Kind of doubt Ohtani gets traded either, but you have to at least consider him if so. Still don't think he'd stay in Philly long-term and that makes it harder to overpay at the deadline.

I consider Goldie but he is not without issues, in terms of his age and salary next year. But it's only one more year, and all indication is Harper will return to RF (possibly even this season, eventually) so sure, you consider that too, even if it means more Schwarber in LF for another month or two.

But your dreams are for teams that legit have a chance to win 95 games and a division. Teams that are trying to win 86-87 games and then get lucky, like last year's team, can't go crazy with trades. And very few of them actually are season-changing or decade-changing (yes Ohtani would be but he will not do an extension in July.

I like Candelario but that's also because I am really not a Bohm believer. They'd be a great platoon, which functionally makes Bohm a bench player.

[tom81]

Then the non-longshots - Diaz, Red's reliever.

The Reds are in 1st place in their division, that is some dream trading for their closer.

[bkox]

Cleaning out the farm for 2 months of Ohtani and then not even getting a draft pick when he leaves just isnt a good idea.

[zambonir]

It's impossible to know what Ohtani would actually fetch as rental. Typically even superstars don't get that big of a haul. But this would be two superstars.

Even so, I think anyone can do it without a really strong indication they can keep him. And I don't know that the Angels will do it.

More fun - if fruitless - to wonder what you would give up for Ohtani if the deal included an extension. But in that scenario there's almost no way the Phillies could win that bidding war.

[Callison]

Didn't think of it myself - saw it as a trade rumor elsewhere and was just picking players that would lift the Phils - but I see it was BS.

One Red's writer said:

< Well, it's time to burst the bubble of Mets fans throughout Queens. Alexis Diaz, who has risen to the A-list in the majors when you begin to talk about the best closers in the game, is not on the trade block. Diaz is under team control for the next four seasons, and while relievers can be quite fickle, the right-hander just seems to have something special. >

Ah, well - the thought of displacing some of the turkeys at the bottom of the Phils' relievers is a desperation.

[zambonir]

as if the Mets are buyers!

I would love to know what baseball teams you have watched that had great relievers after the top four. This year the Phillies' 5-7 guys are better than most, maybe the best ever in modern team history (like the 2008 team had Tom Gordon and Clay Condrey and Rudy Seanez, two of whom were not good then and one of whom was never good). And that's with two pretty good relievers from last year in AAA too.

Relief pitcher is not something this team needs to spend money or trade capital on. The Robertson deal last year was a slight overpay but they needed him without Knebel (and having already ditched Familia) and with Hand not being that great either. He immediately became their third-best option. This year the Phillies already have a strong top four, unless injuries are an issue. If that is the case a month from now they can add a piece.

And if they are really keeping Song there is even less ability to add a new reliever.

[bkox]

More fun - if fruitless - to wonder what you would give up for Ohtani if the deal included an extension.

The top 25 prospects. The Phillie Phanatic. The new 95 bridge. 3 of the Eagles players for the Rams or Chargers and the Liberty Bell.

[zambonir]

Maybe that plus Gritty gets it done.

[zambonir]

Also the Angels have just traded for Eduardo Escobar and Mike Moustakas in the last 72 hours. They also have a better record and wild card position than the Phillies.

[Callison]

Relief pitcher is not something this team needs to spend money or trade capital on.

We will agree to disagree on this. The bottom third of the Phils' relievers reeks.

[Callison]

But your dreams are for teams that legit have a chance to win 95 games and a division. Teams that are trying to win 86-87 games and then get lucky, like last year's team, can't go crazy with trades. And very few of them actually are season-changing or decade-changing

<

I feel the Phils will eventually find a higher level of play this season. With over half the season to play, there's a lot of guesswork in predicting final records,

IMHO, all 4 I mentioned are season-changing.