2022 Phillies Post-Season Campaign Discussion

[Philsmania]

Losing Long would be not great at all. Oh well, next year’s problem.

He's earned it.

[zambonir]

It's an extremely vague tweet. Is he a known candidate for one of the five jobs or a logical candidate for "at least" one of them? And who's the source, his agent?

Of course if the Phillies keep going some teams won't want to wait either.

And meanwhile Keith out there looking for work (I believe his contract is up).

[BostonRoss]

The Phillies before the Mets series that Keith declined to broadcast: 13 games over .500. The rest of the way, one game under .500. I guess they were a different team.

[mdougherty12]

The compressed schedule for the LCS is really going to test the pitching depth, if it goes 6 or 7 games. 7 games in 8 days is like a regular season schedule.

[zambonir]

We're all just looking forward to Ed's post when Gibson finally pitches.

[Sabin]

Appears the Nola family will have a member of the family representing at the Series this year.

This should be an interesting series. The Padres will be riding every bit as high as the Phils, especially after taking out the 111-win Dodger club they dropped seven of ten against in September.

Edit... fun fact: the Phillies have been shutout by the Padres three times this year. In every game they scored a run, they won.

Fun fact #2: Not only do the Padres have their own A. Nola on the roster, they also have an R. Suarez. The latter appears to be of no relation to ours.

[andyb]

If the Phillies had won the hangover games maybe they might have gotten home field advantage for the NLCS. Obviously would have changed both teams' paths. Baseball is seeing the consequences of all these short series. Exciting baseball with unanticipated results.

[Aquapong]

It depends on if Long wants to be a manager. You can always offer a nice raise for him to stay.

So we’re playing the Padres. Nola vs Nola. Harper vs Snell again.

[zambonir]

Long is under contract for one more year but would obviously be allowed to leave for a manager job. Doubt Phillies would sweeten the pot at any meaningful level. But he can also pick his spots, most of those jobs are terrible (and Blue Jays might keep their interim guy).

[EDmuch]

Why do you think the Phil’s would not sweeten the pot” in any meaningful way to keep Long?

[andyb]

Are any coach salaries even half the lowest managerial salary? NFL coordinators (and college) seem to make a lot more in these situations than hitting coaches.

[zambonir]

Yeah, just a financial reality. I suppose the gap between the highest-paid hitting coach in MLB and the lowest-paid manager (for a team like the Royals - or Gabe Kapler when the Phillies hired him) is not huge but between the pay and the prestige as well as the challenge and the opportunity for future financial growth, would be pretty hard to beat a managerial job offer. You'd literally have to pay someone a million dollars.

Wonder what Thomson is going to make! He probably wasn't making more than $3-400K as bench coach (possibly less) and still only six figures as interim.

I also don't think it matters that much. Yeah, this team is humming, and we've seen some real progress with the young players, but talent is talent and there is always a mix of guys who improved/did not improve in any given year (as well as some guys who thrive with what the coach prescribes and others who reject it and still thrive).

In any case, after almost 20 years - yes, even during the last playoff run - of only firing hitting coaches I'd take it.

[EDmuch]

Z, your approach advocated above is somewhat typical of many of the responses on this board. People on this board complain about the Phil’s failure to develop prospects by you then denigrate the importance of coaches who excell in developing young players. We would not be where we are today without a ohm and Stott developing into inexpensive young MLB starters. And they did not become starters just because of their talent. They became effective starters because Long and Dickerson worked with them for many long hours to channel their talent productively. And the price of good coaches who can maximize the talent of young players is chicken feed compared to paying the cost of expensive UFA’s. How do Cleveland & Tampa compete? Their coaching staffs excel at developing young talent. So pay $100 million to Costellanos over five years of invest a couple million per year in coaches who understand how to coach and develop young talent. The idea that talent is talent is absurd: Ex A would be Don Brown. A winning franchise recognized that it is not just numbers, like OPS, but people, who win championships. I think DD understands that people count and would be willing to invest $2 million per year to keep Long, Cotham and Dickerson.

[zambonir]

I think DD understands that people count and would be willing to invest $2 million per year to keep Long, Cotham and Dickerson

Each or total?

That is all well and good though ideally the major league hitting coach doesn't have to do the minor league development people's job either. I think that Cotham and the new pitching coach were both good hires and it would be great if Long stays and has a role in the new minor league hitting hire. But I also don't think even Mr. Stupid Money is going to bust the coaching pay scale... or keep a guy from a manager job.

I am not trying to take credit away from Long, but he's not irreplaceable, and some of the things those young players worked and struggled through still might have happened under other coaches (we just aren't used to that being true on the Phillies even though our last hitting coach was Long's protege. I think Long's best quality probably has nothing to do with hitting, much like Chris Young's worst quality had nothing to do with pitching. And that's also why he'll get to manage).

[EDmuch]

As an example, let’s look at Ortiz. He is athletic, could be a solid left fielder, hits for power but does not make consistent solid contact. I would be very interested in what Lomg could do for him.

[Philsmania]

Not just Phillies-related, but this is an interesting article about how upsets have been the rule--at least for the NL--this offseason.

Cooper: Playoff Randomness Should Be Embraced, Not Feared

[julio]

It’s just reflecting the reality — that success in a short playoff series is largely a matter of chance, rather than differences in quality.

A long season (at least with a fair schedule) can sort the wheat from the chaff, because over time, chance outcomes even out. But in a few games (three, or five, or seven), that often does not happen.

MLB has broken the teams into six divisions - six small divisions, and mangled the seasonal schedule to the point that clubs do not necessarily face similar strength of opponents. They’ve then included one-third of all clubs in the post-season, which largely negates whatever quality sorting the regular season (mangled as it is) might have achieved.

It’s a great spectacle. Lots of post-season games, lots of TV money, lots of tickets sold. But the results are largely a crapshoot; clubs that have demonstrated fairly conclusively that they are better than the competition — in a long season — can be, and are, summarily ousted. Because we want to believe the post-season rewards the better teams, we choose to believe that these clubs have lost because their opponents somehow “rose to the occasion.” But a lot of it is just pure chance - dumb luck.

We don’t want to believe that, of course. And we’ll certainly celebrate and savor it if the Phils are the beneficiaries. But do the Phillies have a stronger roster or organization than the Dodgers? Do we really believe that?

I know I’m in the minority here — but for me, appreciating this reality helps me keep a (somewhat) even keel about it all. If we defeat the Padres, I’ll enjoy that, but I won’t take it to mean that our club is really better (or worse) than theirs. If we don’t win, I won’t see that as a condemnation of our organization relative to theirs, either — because pretty much anything can happen in a short series. So, not over the moon if we win, not suicidal if we lose. We’re rolling the dice.

[zambonir]

If it was soccer the Dodgers (and the 2011 Phillies) could raise a banner and be just as proud of their regular-season "championship."

[Docs]

I am in the minority too then, I don't think the playoff system rewards the most deserving team, however I am enjoying the Phillies journey.

I do not believe that the 2008 Phillies were baseball's best team, but I was ridiculously happy about the championship. I do believe that the 2010 & 2011 Phillies were the best team in baseball, and as we know, they were not crowned in either season.

[Austinfan]

The playoff structure gives the better teams a big edge, the Phillies had to win two games on the road, and then one in Atlanta to get to the NFCCG. They couldn't rest their bullpen and had to jury rig the rotation.

I think winners have to start thinking about how to approach the five days off and stay sharp, but that break shouldn't be a handicap, getting players rested after a 162 game season is invaluable, pitchers get to rest their arms, starters to recover from minor dings, etc. If a team can't figure out how to exploit that advantage, well, tough.