2022 Phillies Post-Season Campaign Discussion

zambonir 2022-10-09 14:15:00 UTC #41

Never a doubt!

allentown 2022-10-09 14:32:33 UTC #42

Bohm impressed me this series. I think we have our 3B for at least the next several seasons.

BostonRoss 2022-10-09 14:42:07 UTC #43

I'm not completely sold on Bohm yet (too SSS). But I was watching the game with a friend who is a Red Sox fans, and he noted that two Red Sox third basemen (Boggs and Devers) who had bad defensive reputations turned it around. Boggs became quite good, and Devers is still improving--a couple of years ago it seemed inevitable that he'd become a 1B or DH. It takes time, but I see the improvement in Bohm's defense. Hope it continues!

Austinfan 2022-10-10 00:31:18 UTC #44

Bohm showed off his athleticism, if you're an athlete, and you're willing to work on your defense, you can become a pretty good defender.

zambonir 2022-10-10 00:43:43 UTC #45

Bohm's trajectory is still unknown. He could make himself a Phillies legend just in the next three weeks! He could be a solid regular for years to come. Or he could still end up like Franco.

Either way he'll get another year or two, and improved defense is pretty huge, but even so, we're assuming consistent offensive production from him that he has yet to show, mostly because he is still barely playable against RHP (and there's more of them).

EDmuch 2022-10-10 11:48:42 UTC #46

Geesh, how about giving him a break ????? His trajectory is not "unknown". IN his draft year coming out of college he was seen as a very solid hitter,one of the best in the draft, although not necessarily a "power hitter". This past year he has been exactly as advertised. Solid. 290 hitter with 15 HR potential is pretty much on target. So to compare him to Franco is really unfair. His fielding was a question mark and it certainly was bad early in the year. But he has clearly improved and has actually turned his height and reach into a strength. I do not know why we always have to belittle our own. To me Alex Bohm is one of the best stories of this baseball season.

And Stott is a success story too.

Austinfan 2022-10-10 14:22:10 UTC #47

We went through a streak of 1st rd picks flopping, so it's hard to believe we're it four in a row!

But it's possible that the Phillies finish next season with a relatively young team:
C: Realmuto/Stubbs/Marchan
1B: Hoskins/Hall/Schwarber
2B: Maton/Sosa/Guthrie
SS: Stott
3B: Bohm
LF: Marsh
CF: Rojas
RF: Castellanos/De La Cruz
DH: Harper

Wheeler - Nola - Ranger - Painter - Abel
SD - Brogdon - McGarry - Alvarado - Nelson - Eflin?

andyb 2022-10-10 15:40:11 UTC #48

We want Harper to be the RF next year (and there is little chance De La Cruz is a solution there). Going with the 2B and LF solutions you outline would also probably be below average solutions. Just no evidence the Phillies think their internal 2B solutions are good enough (though I admit I would be intrigued if I could spend money elsewhere) and an OF with Marsh as the LF is probably not a good offensive OF.

We really need to root for Schwarber and Castellanos to be good for most of their contracts because most of the younger solutions are just not that good.

Clearly we all want those young pitchers to be part of the solution. Just doubt it will happen as quickly as next year (or even if they all do make the majors some of them will be way below average). The bullpen really needs help. Just not many I would trust beyond Seranthony long term there and ever with Ser the trust is fleeting.

zambonir 2022-10-10 15:58:23 UTC #49

Are we watching the same guy? I'm not trying to run him down, I like the kid and the improvement in his defense has felt revelatory. But he still hasn't found his offensive game save for a good start in April and a hot July.

He has a .629 OPS/79 OPS+ against RHP, and that is 456 of his ABs (78%). He had a .697 OPS in August and a .629 OPS in September. May and June, .611 and .609. (That from both sides of the plate so those numbers must be even worse against the RHPs, because against lefties he is great).

If anything I am being too easy on him, that is barely a playable major leaguer other than as the weak side of a platoon. Especially at a power position with still just okay defense. You could have put Maton or Sosa out there every day and gotten the same production.

He might have a great post-season here and that's worth plenty but yes - his trajectory is still unknown. We still hoped Franco was going to be a stud after his third season (when he hit 25 HRs and put up a .733 OPS, both better than Bohm this year).

zambonir 2022-10-10 16:30:34 UTC #50

Per Salisbury on Twitter Thomson's non-interim status going to become official (he doesn't say exactly when).

Oh haha that was fast

The Phillies have signed manager Rob Thomson to a two-year contract for the 2023 and 2024 seasons, President of Baseball Operations David Dombrowski announced today. pic.twitter.com/fUyPgFIdgY
— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) October 10, 2022

Dirk41 2022-10-10 16:35:57 UTC #51

The players seem to love him

andyb 2022-10-10 16:37:30 UTC #52

I am OK with Bohm's year but also wide eyed to where he is still a below average 3B when you add everything up. Announcers pay more attention to the decent batting average instead of the OPS. I will note that a high average as a component of OPS is a bit undervalued since getting on base is more important than slugging in terms of value and hits move runners more than walks.

But Bohm does need to improve his offense since his defense is still below average. He has been very aggressive this season and that helped him get out of his slump. But being aggressive also means pitchers will react. They will still throw Bohm strikes to lead off an at bat, but are throwing him pitches aimed at getting him to hit a ground ball somewhere. If Bohm continues to be aggressive he needs to do more damage, which in turn would lean to him seeing fewer strikes and getting more walks. None of that has happened yet so he is still a finished product.

Bohm is still serviceable though. He is a legit starter now even though he is below average. That counts for something given the low salary. We just need to see more to see if he is playable at 3B in his later arbitration years when he starts to get more expensive.

zambonir 2022-10-10 17:07:57 UTC #53

The funny thing is 15-HR, .280-hitting, 100ish OPS+ pretty much describes our longtime 2B before Segura. But Cesar was a 2-3.0 WAR player. Hopefully improved defense plus fulfilling more of his offensive potential gets Bohm to 2. It's also not his fault the team has too many RHBs and too many DHs. We will see what happens. As noted, pessimism is kind of the default position from this era (not just Brown and Asche and Franco early but Haseley and Kingery and Moniak more recently). For better or worse Bohm is the best Phillies draft pick/prospect/position player since J.P.

andyb 2022-10-10 17:33:27 UTC #54

I think Bohm can be a 2-3 WAR player. He just is not yet. The second half defense could have been closer to a -0.5 dWAR, so he may already be close to that 2 WAR line if his offense continues to be in the 2-3 WAR range.

If he adds 10 walks and gets to 15+ HRs his offense might be +3 WAR. Just getting his defense above the -1 dWAR line makes him that 3-5 year inexpensive starter we need. This is below expectations of a number 3 overall pick, but still good enough to be a regular.

Austinfan 2022-10-10 21:39:09 UTC #55

I think Bohm will develop more power as he hits his late 20s, he's got line drive power, but it doesn't take much of a jump for him to become a 20-25 HR guy, he has solid alley power already and hits to all fields. He does have to become more selective as a hitter, but I think he has some upside left.

andyb 2022-10-10 21:55:02 UTC #56

We just don't know that though. It was a "hope" in his scouting report. He should be showing more power by now. He just may not have the swing for much more power. He had to shorten his swing because of his height to enhance his contact ability. That may not be compatible with much more power. He does chase more with his aggressiveness, but his contact rates are above average so that is not necessarily a bad thing. Bryce's chase rate is much higher but he does much more damage when he makes contact.

How Bohm develops is just an unknown. He might be the .280-.290 15 HR guy we saw this year. That guy is playable. Just not that great.

zambonir 2022-10-10 23:02:53 UTC #57

Yeah, I don't consider my statement that his "trajectory is unknown" to be any more controversial than "water is wet." He might make an all-star game, he might be a decent everyday player for several years, he might be disappointing, he might be a flop. His bat skills are solid and the idea that he hasn't hit his power (or defense) ceiling is tantalizing. But those are still question marks.

We could (and did) have the same conversation about Kingery at the end of 2019 (and Kingery's 2019 was still quite a bit better than Bohm's 2022 in terms of OPS and WAR, even after he tapered off. Obviously what went wrong with Kingery was pretty unique to him, in terms of the multiple health issues more than the swing issues).

I still don't understand why Bohm can't play LF but it's probably moot now, he's holding down 3B fine and his bat still doesn't work in LF or at 1B/DH anyway, except against LHP. Obviously the roster construction still doesn't help him in the long run, as it would still be nice to give him some DH days, and sit him for defense/platoon advantage some other days.

Patchmk88 2022-10-11 12:11:02 UTC #58

It’s game day. Let’s go Phillies!

Hoping we can take 1 of 2 in Atlanta.

tom81 2022-10-11 13:57:47 UTC #59

The Phillies mojo was strong enough to overcome any. jinx

I sure wish they would announce a game time for Friday's game so I would know if I have to take time off from work.

Aquapong 2022-10-11 14:18:55 UTC #60

Did they announce a time for Friday yet?