2022 Phillies Post-Season Campaign Discussion

[andyb]

This is interesting. The Astros do not have any left-handed relievers. But all the relievers they DO use don't have significant platoon splits. This is a tiny argument for Hall instead of Guthrie, but there is really no argument that Hall would do well either against these pitchers. Framber Valdez is left-handed so Vierling and probably Sosa should start against him. I think I would prefer Guthrie though for defense and potentially pinch-running if it came to that.

The Astros Don’t Need Lefties

[Philsmania]

Funny how our teams routinely run into dynasties in the championship round.

2001: 76ers v Lakers
1985: Flyers v Oilers
2004: Eagles v Pats
1980: 76ers v Lakers
1976: Flyers v Canadians
1987: Flyers v Oilers
1980: Flyers v Islanders
1993: Phillies v Blue Jays
1997: Flyers v Redwings
2010: Flyers v Blackhawks
2009: Phillies v Yankees

Only ones I can think of where we beat the dynasty was 2017: Eagles v Pats and 1983: 76ers v Lakers. I guess you could add in 1974: Flyers v Bruins since the Bruins won the Cup in 1970 and 1972.

The championships we won were otherwise against equal or lesser teams.

2008: Phillies v Rays
1980: Phillies v Royals
1975: Flyers v Sabres
1967: 76ers v Warriors

The one that still stings deeply was the 1980: Eagles v Raiders that we really should have won if we had played at all well.

I've noticed that before. During that long quarter-century champioship drought between the '83 Sixers and the '08 Phillies, Philadelphia teams that played for championships routinely ran into the brick wall of dynasties, including in some cases emerging dynasties (1980 Islanders, 1997 Red Wings). It's hard to call the Astros a dynasty, except maybe an AL dynasty. All they have is one WC and that was five years ago. Also, the 2009 Yankee team was a standalone champion and that was their first WC since 2000 and first WS appearance since 2003 and they haven't been back to the WS since. The 2010's was the first decade in a century in which the Yankees did not appear in a WS.

The '83 Sixers was the only NBA team not named the Lakers or Celtics to win an NBA Championship from 1980-88,

[phillychuck]

And they cheated to win it. But they do have a boatload of wins over the last 5 non-covid years:

2022 106
2021 95
skipping 2020 b/c Covid
2019 107
2018 103
2017 101

I think that kind of success is dynastic.

[Philsmania]

And they cheated to win it. But they do have a boatload of wins over the last 5 non-covid years:

2022 106
2021 95
skipping 2020 b/c Covid
2019 107
2018 103
2017 101

I think that kind of success is dynastic.

Two straight WS losses including the last two full-season World Series.

[zambonir]

I think that many World Series appearances is itself dynastic. If they'd routinely topped 100 wins and then got bounced in the wild card round, different stories.

The Dodgers are a bit of a grey area there as well.

[julio]

Two straight WS losses including the last two full-season World Series

Success in a short series, against an opponent of similar ability, is largely random. The Astros are a good, dangerous club. Nothing is easy or certain at this level.

One caveat: If one club is clearly stronger than the other, then a short series can happen. The 1983 World Series, where the Orioles basically crushed the Phillies, is an example of that.

[zambonir]

I'm certainly nervous the Astros will do what they just did to the Yankees. They are 7-0, but hey, we're 9-2.

[Philsmania]

I'm certainly nervous the Astros will do what they just did to the Yankees. They are 7-0, but hey, we're 9-2.

If we win game 1 and hit them with a proverbial punch in the mouth, as Mike Tyson would call it.....

[allentown]

If we win either game 1 or game 2 we have a chance. Nola or Wheeler need to come up big in Houston.

[zambonir]

yeah, for starters I just want a Game 5. Ideally with the Phillies up going back to TX.

[BostonRoss]

Umpires for the World Series have been announced. For some reason, Angel Hernandez is not going to be there.

[phillychuck]

But Dan Iassogna is, as the crew chief no less. Umpitre ratings have him as the worst ball/strike ump in the crew.

Saw this elsewhere:

https://twitter.com/bnightengale/status/1585356133790777373?s=46&t=CH_vdzpEl2H5uYEbKI_wgA

Dan Iassogna - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Dan%20Iassogna

Alan Porter - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Alan%20Porter

Jordan Baker - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Jordan%20Baker

James Hoye - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=James%20Hoye

Lance Barksdale - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Lance%20Barksdale

Pat Hoberg - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Pat%20Hoberg

Tripp Gibson - https://umpscorecards.com/single_umpire/?name=Tripp%20Gibson

[andyb]

Well at least 5 of the 7 score well above average (all but Iassogna and Hoye). I think they are clearly using data to pick most of the umpires but seniority rules with crew chiefs.

[EastFallowfield]

This is a pretty good writeup of how well Thomson and company have managed the relievers so far this postseason.

[zambonir]

Phillies put Nick Nelson and Nick Maton on the World Series roster. They took off Bailey Falter and Dalton Guthrie.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) October 28, 2022

I guess the surprise here is Hand keeps his spot. I do think they were just never that eager to use Falter based on his small sample of success/stuff and then when they did, he showed why.

[Callison]

IMHO, the Pen has been both brilliant and scary. Damn near just blew a game throwing a wild pitch in the rain. Can't feel confident about the guys behind our 2 stars.

I think nearly everybody expects low-scoring, stare-down games. I think 7 games fer sure. Here's hoping Nola brings his A game tonight. GO PHILS!

[Aquapong]

I would’ve thought Guthrie would have more value as a defensive replacement/pinch runner than Hall. Hall hasn’t seen an MLB ab for quite awhile.

[zambonir]

There is no Hall (Hand, is what I mentioned). Maton's LHB instead of Guthrie, he's probably a better hitter too, but otherwise same skill set (i.e. fielding/running). Plus he gets to see his injured brother.

[andyb]

I would’ve thought Guthrie would have more value as a defensive replacement/pinch runner than Hall. Hall hasn’t seen an MLB ab for quite awhile.

That was my initial thought, but remember Houston has no left-handed relievers and only one left-handed starter. Probably more chances for Maton than Guthrie in an extra inning game and while Guthrie is a bit faster, it is not as if Maton is slow.

Nelson makes sense if they are not going to start Falter. I do NOT want to see Falter come in as a reliever after really not doing it all year.

[andyb]

Astros roster actually added Will Smith, a left-handed reliever we should be familiar with from Atlanta. Traded midseason and was pretty good for Houston (3.27 ERA, solved the control issues he had with Atlanta earlier) but did not make the playoff roster the last 2 rounds.

Assume he is basically there for Harper and maybe Schwarber though the Astros probably don't want him pitching beyond the 3 batters if that.