2022 Phillies Minor League Spring Training

Austinfan 2022-02-26 14:54:08 UTC #21

If a player hasn't learned to be selective at 22, doubtful he'll ever develop plate discipline - which means he's a goner when he hits the Show, b/c ML pitchers know how to nibble and get you to chase bad pitches.

Martin may be a great athlete, but I'm not convinced he's a baseball player.

andyb 2022-02-26 16:15:43 UTC #22

There are lots of players who learn to be selective after they are 22. I know you love these blanket statements, but they are just not true. Not everyone needs to be like Rhys Hoskins to be a major leaguer. An athletic players that can every position on the field with some speed and power can be a productive major leaguer without having a great hit tool. Martin actually had an 11% walk rate last year which is not bad. He swings and misses too much of course, but there is still a lot to work with.

He is not a top prospect and has many holes in his swing, but tools also matter and he should not be dismissed after 1 season in the minors.

Austinfan 2022-02-26 16:23:02 UTC #23

Well, he does have a college track record.
This is different than a LA player who's trying to break bad habits.

allentown 2022-02-26 18:18:39 UTC #24

Decent walk rate, but indecent K-rate and awful BA and OBP. He shows some power; perhaps he is trying too hard to demonstrate power. Of course he missed 2020, but so did everyone else. He's certainly a guy to watch in 2022, especially with changes to the Phillies approach to development. He was highly rated out of college, so perhaps 2021 was a fluke and down to our coaching.

julio 2022-02-26 18:25:59 UTC #25

Martin's walk rate in 2021 was 9.6% (BB% is BB/PA, not BB/AB). That said, that's not bad - 10% is a "gold standard," is it not? His K% is high - but not outrageous, at 28% - and in college, his K% was about 24%. (That sounds "bad," but his collegiate OBP was .389, and when you're doing that, it doesn't matter a whole heck of a lot what the outs look like...and just for reference, I checked Pat Burrell's K% for comparison, and... well, look it up.) Martin hasn't replicated that in the minors, of course, but his only season was 2021, most of which he spent in Clearwater, in the COVID circus. Honestly, I don't know how one can read much of anything into a stat line from a situation like that.

Austinfan said, "He does have a college track record," so I looked at his collegiate numbers...which, frankly, led me to wonder whether Austinfan had looked at those numbers.

Austinfan 2022-02-26 21:57:34 UTC #26

He's not a power hitter, it's one thing for a 30+HR guy to put up big K numbers, but Martin's calling card is speed (though he had a bad ankle). He has some pop but has to make consistent contact.

His K rate jumped through the roof at Jersey Shore, from 22.6% to 41.3%, smaller sample, but still . . .
22% in college, jumped his junior season to 31% but a SSS.

We'll see how good their development process is with him.

andyb 2022-02-26 22:23:22 UTC #27

The main point is that Martin does not have to have a great OBP to be a major league player because he does lots of other things well. He has many varied paths to make it. Remember Ronald Torreyes is a major league ballplayer.

His walk rate and K rate are important of course, but we also know he is a raw prospect that would need time. Then he missed a year.

AF is too quick to turn a page on any player that does not fit his sabermetric view of a player that draws walks all the time. He never gave Jimmy Rollins credit for being a good leadoff hitter because he has only one thing in mind - walks. Rollins' power was among the things that made him special. Martin has a long way to go before he is any sort of decent prospect, but he should not be dismissed because he does not fit one narrow definition. There was a reason he got a big bonus. Give him more than a year to see if he can be worth it.

Austinfan 2022-02-27 02:10:16 UTC #28

Rollins could have been a sure fire HOF player if he just took a page from the Joe Morgan playbook.
Morgan was a little guy with pop, but who also walked 100 times a year, letting him utilize his speed.

allentown 2022-02-27 03:31:14 UTC #29

And the Ronald Torreyes of baseball are cheap and largely fungible. I certainly hope we develop such players from the farm, especially the middle relief equivalents of Torreyes, but I more strongly hope that we develop MLB starters. Martin was a high enough draft pick that I would see Torreyes as a disappointing result, even though so many drafted in his slot become a lot less than that.

andyb 2022-02-27 15:04:35 UTC #30

Again, criticizing Rollins just because he is not as good as the greatest second baseman in baseball history makes you look foolish. There are many, many ways to be a productive major leaguer. Rollins was a very good fielder who did not strike out much with above average speed and way above average power for his position. And great baseball instincts.

Even though you don't think tools are important, they are. It is why we drool over Johan Rojas who is less likely to be a major league regular than Bryson Stott, but also much more likely to be an All Star if he puts things together. And also Rojas could be a major league starter with a .290-.300 OBP where Stott could not. It is because he does other things well too and some things very well.

At no point have I said Martin is a great prospect. He is not. He deserves to fall out of our top 20. But I am also not dismissing him because it is just one year and he has great tools. Different player, but it is also why we don't dismiss Moniak yet because he also has some tools (more than Haseley for instance).

Evaluation is not simply looking at a player's K/BB ratios even if that is a very important thing to judge.

andyb 2022-02-27 15:06:23 UTC #31

I would too, though I also think a utility player that can field pretty well at multiple positions (something still in doubt) that can hit home runs and steal bases is something. Brad Miller with speed and better defense.

phillychuck 2022-02-27 15:27:15 UTC #32

And Larry Bowa could have been a sure fire Hall-of-famer if he only took a page from Babe Ruth's playbook and led the league in homers.

That's a ridiculous statement, of course, equally as absurd as the Joe Morgan statement above. Drawing walks is a skill, not a choice. It's skill that can be developed, just like power. But not everyone can develop to be Joe Morgan (or even close to Joe Morgan), just like not everyone can be Babe Ruth. And when one skill is emphasized (patience) often other skills recede (exit velocity, BA). It's a delicate balancing act.

Austinfan 2022-02-27 17:00:36 UTC #33

No. Bowa couldn't develop power if he spent 8 hours a day in the weight room.

Rollins wanted to be in the leadoff spot, but never focused on improving his plate discipline, his BB% and thus his OBP.
Morgan sacrificed some BA for power, but compensated with a high BB rate. Rollins would have been a better player if he had emulated Morgan.

Players get stubborn, Howard insisted on pulling everything when he was best when he focused on driving the ball to left center, that is, not trying to pull balls on the outside of the plate but trust his great power.

andyb 2022-02-27 17:14:37 UTC #34

Really? I mean really????

Rollins struck out 108-113 times in his first 3 years in the league. His OPS range was .686-/743. In 2004 he cut his Ks to 73 while raising his BBs a small amount (to 57). His OPS suddenly jumped to .803 and stayed close to there for the next 5 years till he hit natural regression in his 30s. He had more walks than Ks 2 years and was pretty close to even through his age 32 season after which he likely lost bat speed.

There is no scenario when he did not work on his plate discipline. He just figured out that what worked for him was a combination of discipline and aggression that allowed him to tap into his power. He was a leadoff hitter that figured out a way to get to second base often (through power and speed). Was he Joe Morgan? Of course not. But he was still pretty dang good.

phillychuck 2022-02-27 19:59:35 UTC #35

AF, you missed the entire point of my absurd parody of your statement. Developing plate discipline isn't as simple as "taking a page" from a Hall-of-Famer's book. It's a difficult skill, something not everyone can develop. As hard as it might have been for Bowa to develop Ruthian power, it was probably just as hard for Rollins to develop "Morganian" discipline. You act like he was stupid and/or willful in refusing to take more walks. You don't know that; it may not have been possible given his physical and mental gifts, just like it would not have been possible for Bowa to hit 30 HRs a year.

zambonir 2022-02-27 20:49:14 UTC #36

Heck we could start picking apart Chase Utley's game too if we wanted to. Great player, but not an MVP or certain Hall of Famer. Too bad he didn't hit 40 home runs or bat .300 more.

(All kidding aside it is really sad to look at Chase's stats - both the lost seasons of 2003 and 2004 - and how hard he levelled off at and after age 31.)

allentown 2022-02-27 23:03:34 UTC #37

It's the way many Phillies fans and media reacted to Bobby Abreu: if he can hit so well for both average and power and runs as well as he does, then surely if he was willing to try, he could be a great defensive RF. He was lazy! He's too willing to accept a walk when what the team really needs is an extra-base hit! From the days of Richie Allen, this was the plight of minority stars. Utley had been the Phillies equivalent of heavyweight boxing's Great White Hope, so he was immune to this sort of criticism. His play should have made him immune, but then, so should the play of Allen and Abreu and Rollins and Howard.

zambonir 2022-02-28 00:12:05 UTC #38

You are correct, though Werth and Burrell were also whipping boys - including by the team's own decision makers - for daring to take walk instead of hitting with RISP.

Austinfan 2022-02-28 01:39:08 UTC #39

Abreu maximized his value, fans and media were just to dumb to understand what he was doing, so was the FO.

Rollins first six seasons his BB rate varied between 6.3 and 7.9
Then 9.3, 6.1, 10.2, 9.2, 8.9, 8.9, 10.6
So he basically increased from 7 to 9% in his 30s, when his skills were eroding and he had to compensate.
The highest OBP of his career was .349, yet he was adamant that he saw himself as a leadoff hitter.
His career OBP was .324.

andyb 2022-02-28 02:43:40 UTC #40

A leadoff hitter that gets to second base often is pretty valuable. Again, your definition of value is completely one dimensional.