2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[Patchmk88]

I was surprised that both Halladay and Lee fell off (although I guess injuries played a role). I thought they would age well since they didn’t rely a ton on velocity.

[zambonir]

Yeah career-ending injuries, both actual and de facto, probably more common than just age-related decline/loss of stuff. In Lee's case he might have been able to have surgery and come back but saw no reason to do it at that point in his career.

Heck Thor is still under 30 but might never be the same.

And somehow Hamels hasn't quite made the call yet.

[andyb]

Medical science is continually getting better rehabbing pitching injuries. It is seemingly becoming more cautious too, seeing pitchers out for all or most of a second season for Tommy John and similar injuries (see both Verlander and Syndergaard).

Looking at the top heavy free agent pitching market for next year, I think I fully expect the Phillies to bring 2 out of Gibson, Eflin, and Syndergaard back, maybe on one year deals. DeGrom, Verlander, and Rodon probably get more money than the Phillies want to give. Kershaw will stay put. The next best are Bassitt and Wainwright and Severino and Morton and some of those may not even reach the market. Really looks like a year to pay attention to shortstop for the Phillies and not starting pitching. It is probably a good strategy given the Phillies at the moment to do 1-year deals for the back end of the rotation and hope they have 1 kid ready by the end of 2023 and 2 by some point in 2024. Probably should think about extending Nola too.

Top 30 MLB free agents for 2022-23 offseason: An early look at a special class

[zambonir]

Yeah Nola is the question, I don't think you go after a big FA pitcher unless you are also already thinking about replacing him.

But as with Hoskins not sure either side is super-interested in an extension. Phillies playing it safe in case he gets injured, Nola wanting the power of hitting the open market (or at least getting closer to it). But given his performance this year, his general health (which Matt W also noted among his many interesting tweets yesterday) and the fact that not every elite pitcher is cooked at 35, some dead years on his next contract don't seem as risky to me as they did a year ago... especially if they do also manage to have two pre-arbitration youngsters in the rotation during that same period (or even Super 2s which would certainly be a good thing).

[andyb]

Since Nola's option year next year ($16 million) is about $10-$15 million under market value, the Phillies do have some leverage on an extension. Tack on 4 years and $100 million (so the whole deal is 5/116) and the Phillies get a slightly better AAV and start the contract when Nola is a year younger. Nola seems happy. I'd think about something like that.

[phillychuck]

I'd be happier from the Phils' perspective with 4/$91M, which I think Nola would have to consider.

[Austinfan]

Thor is interesting, he probably won't get $20+M on the open market nor a lot of term.

How he works with the Phillies pitching coach Cotham could have a big impact on his decision making - he's making the transition from a power pitcher to one who has to learn to rely on secondary pitches and guile. If Cotham helps him with that transition, Thor might decide the grass ain't greener.

And one advantage of re-signing your own is you have a better idea what they're really worth (physical limitations, character) and can set a reservation price based on better information.

[flyers19rw]

When it comes to pitchers, I’m in favor of taking care of your own first because you totally know their health history. Extending Nola makes the most sense to me before chasing someone from another organization. Degrom, Syndergaard, Kershaw all have had injury issues. As we’ve seen with Doc and Lee, these things have nasty habits of recurring. See Strasburg and Scherzer.

[zambonir]

I find Nola hard to read. He's a lifelong Phillie, he does seem to like it here, not everybody can be like Utley or Hamels or Harper and go all-in on the city and the culture, but I still can't help but think - and certainly his vaccination status colors my perception - he might want to play in the South/closer to home (or perhaps even Southern California, especially if his brother sticks around out there).

And given Scherzer got a $40 million+ AAV from the Mets (albeit more limited years) I just think the guy wants to hit the open market, and he will get five (certainly not four if you're including next year). He already gave the Phillies a pretty good deal the first time, no reason to do it again.

And yes Thor still seems like he has to take another pillow deal, he wound up getting overpaid this year.

[andyb]

Stott leading off tonight. Probably the right call given how he has been working counts lately. Vierling in LF.

[bkeich]

Stott leading off tonight. Probably the right call given how he has been working counts lately. Vierling in LF

Stott has a 0.273 OBP, I am sorry, but even on a hot streak it makes no sense at all to me to maximize his at bats. Realmuto (0.337 OBP and equally hot lately) makes a ton more sense to me.

[andyb]

.329 OBP in his last 40 games. It is not a small sample size any more and during that period he has 14 BBs and only 12 Ks. His advanced swing stats show very few swings at pitches outside the zone.

He is ready to leadoff and I'd prefer JT in the middle where he has been swinging that bat well lately in a lineup tonight without Schwarber and Harper.

[LegoDoom]

Has something happened since midday (I haven't been following Schwarber's status)? William Hill has the Phils @ +205 now. That seems like a decent bet to me.

[phillychuck]

That's a good bet -- looking at the Mets odds there might be an arbitrage opportunity pairing that up...

[zambonir]

Yeah even the announcers talking about how Stott finally got his BA over .200 strikes me as irrelevant, though I get the symbolism. His seasonlong stats are much like the Phillies' seasonlong record, the first 1/3 no longer counts (I mean, the W-L record still does, and maybe the Phillies won't get a draft pick out of Stott either. But different team and different player now.)

[andyb]

He has had a low BABIP (.267) in that 40 game stretch too. 714 OPS. The seeds of a 750 OPS middle infielder are there, which is kind of what we hoped he would be even if he did not add much power. He has to keep doing it of course, but the Phillies were convinced enough to release Didi. That was not all about Didi being bad. It was about Stott being legitimately pretty good. He is a 270/350/400 slash hitter with average luck.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Stott has a 0.273 OBP, I am sorry, but even on a hot streak it makes no sense at all to me to maximize his at bats.

Good reverse jinx.

[LegoDoom]

That's a good bet -- looking at the Mets odds there might be an arbitrage opportunity pairing that up...

Looks like the line closed at +200 and 7o/u. Would have been a sweet parlay.

Still can't believe enough people were betting on the Mets at -210 (and worse) to sweeten the odds on the Phils.

[Jazzhead]

You can make the case that the Phils lose last night if Schwarber had played. Could Schwarbs have thrown out Marte at the plate like Veirliing did? And could he have scored on that shallow fly like Stottsie?

Of course, a three-run Schwarbomb would have made such derring-do unnecessary.

[Jazzhead]

And another thing, Schwarber should not be hitting lead-off. By doing so the chances of that three-run Schwarbomb decease by 25%