2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I think Hoskins actually is the flex point, but it should probably be to replace him with Schwarber, not Hall. Then you can upgrade LF with that same money you were going to pay Hoskins - not a big-time free agent but a solid everyday player both defensively and at the plate. But such a a plan requires certainty that Bohm is for real (and will continue to develop power) and that Castellanos will come back around. Rhys has carried the offense but he shouldn't have had to if the rest of the line-up had performed/been healthy (and he's been one of those players himself too).

[EDmuch]

I agree that the only real point of drama over the next few years will be Hoskins. And I agree one possibility is to move Schwarber to first and get a left fielder who can hit. A lot will depend, as Z suggests, on the development of Bohm and the reliability of Castillanos because right now Rhys is clearly the big bat on the right side that balances the lineup. There is no one other than DD that I would want to handle that situation. I still think the Phil’s win the pennant next year but lose in the WS. That will create big pressure on what to do for 2024.

[Austinfan]

Castallanos is the obvious move to 1B, he's a RF, so you'd be either moving him to LF, out of his comfort zone, 1B or DH when Harper returns and can play the field again.

[Austinfan]

Before they traded for Marsh, they had Long look at hours of film on him to see if he could be "fixed."
So I doubt they make that move without Long signing off.
So it'll be interesting to watch Marsh this year and next year, to see if the wizard can perform his magic.

Marsh lost a lot of development time, so if Long can get him up to .700+ OPS, that will fix CF, allow them to live with corner OFs with limited range, and to keep Rojas and Muzzioti in AAA ball for a full season or more instead of rushing them. And Vierling becomes a RH platoon option and supersub.

Which sets the lineup, outside of SS/2B for the next few years.
Stubbs/Sands/Marchan, Hall, Sosa, Maton, Vierling becomes your low cost but useful bench.
Realmuto, [Hoskins], Stott/???, Bohm, Schwarber, Marsh, Harper, Castellanos.
The two decisions are extending Hoskins and who pairs with Stott.

[EDmuch]

If we add Trea Turner next year, I do not agree the Braves have a better lineup. Less expensive, true. But not better. And they could be losing Dansby Swanson.

[zambonir]

I already consider Hoskins to be gone. The only drama to me is if the Phillies move him this off-season rather than losing him in free agency, and to creatively improve the team (because I still don't think they will be better than the Mets or Braves on paper).

I don't see how you extend him, I don't think Boras would take an extension (at least not a realistic one), and I don't think you want him playing 1B anymore after next year (and only then because you have no choice). So unless you get rid of Castellanos there's no path.

And I would not move Castellanos to 1B either. When you move an aging 3B or OF to 1B at least they actually used to be good fielders or had a few games there before. Castellanos is an aging bad fielder who's never played one inning there. And the Phillies have far too many other players who need 1B open eventually (Harper, Realmuto, Schwarber, possibly still Bohm).

[Taudawg]

I would trade Hoskins this winter. However, I have some concern about the Boras and Harper’s influence on roster construction. Rhys is one of Bryce’s guys. Based on that influence, I could see the Phillies attempting to resign Rhys…which would be a mistake.

[zambonir]

Bryce is too busy trying to get Turner to be his teammate for the next 10 years. Won't be any money left for Rhys in 2024.

[Aquapong]

I like Turner, but the Phils have a luxury of being able to wait out the market here and not sign another life time contract. Even getting a 3 war player at SS would be a huge upgrade. Maybe we just roll with Stott and Maton in the middle and load up on pitching.

[zambonir]

I am not personally arguing for Turner, just that it seems mildy inevitable, and that Bryce is already shadow GMing for it. Whereas I've never seen him publicly wonder why the Phillies haven't tried to extend their most productive homegrown player and offensive rock (this year).

Heck, if this team is actually as good as its record since June 1 Turner would be filling a hole that doesn't even exist. Not saying I just go Maton/Stott (or Sosa/Stott) but there would be other cheaper options to cover 2B. Money might not only be better spent on pitching but if you're trying to fill a hole that technically doesn't exist I'd still try to address the DH logjam and get better outfield defense (not sure we can even count on Harper for that anymore going forward).

[allentown]

Given wiser roster construction, extending Hoskins could be wise, assuming the cost/years weren't unreasonable. The signing of Castellanos guaranteed that Hoskins could not be extended. Castellanos hitting better lately, but still a very poor fit for this team and with his contract he is totally untradeable, without sending a big pile of cash along with him. Castellanos may just be feeling the weight of a big contract, but no reason to assume the same thing wouldn't happen to Hoskins (it did with Burrell) if he got a big(ish) $ extension, as happened with Pat Burrell. Hoskins only a year younger than Castellanos.

[EDmuch]

Not going to spend a lot on pitching with the Big 3 only a year or two away. I mean this is now a solidroster. A bit weirdly constructed I agree. But quite effective and stable for the next few years.

[zambonir]

Listen, if Rhys wants a team-friendly extension (both $ and years) maybe they can bite the bullet on Castellanos. But probably they play this year out, Rhys walks, and Castellanos either bounces back (which would also make him more tradeable, if not still without pain) or becomes an albatross.

Big 3 or not they are going to have to spend on pitching next year. It might not be a $20 million guy but it won't be less than $10 million either. They can overpay someone (perhaps even Gibson) on a one-year deal but to get a #3 (who would be #2 if Nola leaves) will either take cash and 3-4 years, or a trade.

And a $20 million pitcher plus a $10 million second baseman might make for a better team than a $30 million SS on a 10-year deal. I'd say the same if you could trade Rhys for a great pitcher (in that case I'd try Castellanos & Hall at 1B) but I don't think you can.

[EDmuch]

We will have to see how they do in the playoffs but I think 2023 lines up as a potentially very big year. I doubt they try to move either Hoskins or Nola this off season. Once they are back in the playoffs, Middleton will be dying to taste the champagne. He will give DD a blank check to do whatever DD thinks should be done to reach the mountain top.

[allentown]

Given wiser roster construction, extending Hoskins would be wise, assuming the cost/years weren't unreasonable.

[allentown]

Once they are back in the playoffs, Middleton will be dying to taste the champagne. He will give DD a blank check to do whatever DD thinks should be done to reach the mountain top.

I seriously doubt this.

[EDmuch]

Why do you doubt this?

[zambonir]

I assume they will get back under the CBT for 2023 but will be able to go over it again in 2024. And may need to. Even with the good things we are seeing from young players and the Big 3 (any one or two of whom could still flame out or be traded along the way) they lose Nola and several important players will be in decline (both mildly and not) by then. I still don't extend Hoskins at 31 for that reason (better to imitate the Braves with Freeman).

2024 is also the last year of DD's contract, though he could certainly stick around (doesn't seem like he has a gig to go back to in Nashville any time soon).

[allentown]

Why do you doubt this?

I don't believe the Phillies have ever been or will ever be a 'blank check' team and Middleton hasn't shown evidence of such.

To Zambonir:

I agree, but I interpret what EDmuch wrote as meaning if we make the playoffs this season that Middleton will give DD a blank check to go even farther over the cap in 2023. I don't think that happens. But yes, in 2024 I expect the Phillies will exceed the cap by about the same amount as they did this year, perhaps even a little more for the right opportunity if things are looking up the rest of this year and 2023.

[zambonir]

Yes, we agree. Everything they've done this month also suggests they don't intend to go crazy with the spending next year. They got a cheap CF (at a pretty high trade price) and made great use of the fact that they were over the CBT (in terms of paying Thor and cutting loose three sunk costs) but probably want that $ back on the actual balance sheet next year.

But the way things have played out they don't actually have to exceed the cap next year. At least not until the deadline. If Middleton is thinking parade at that point I'm sure he might write the check. Right now if I were him I'd be patting Dombrowski on the back about where the team is with one hand and punching him in the arm over all that wasted money (and the fact that they exceeded the tax for Castellanos specifically) with the other.