2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

Might be a new mindset.

A sign of a GM that is comfortable in his position, unlike Klentak.

This is the right move. It is not like there is a huge difference in talent now between Didi and Munoz. But Stott is clearly a bit better than Didi offensively and that should improve. And if Stott is the primary SS (with occasional Sosa starts), then Munoz is just the much more flexible bench player, even playing some outfield. Didi has really only played SS in his career.

A nice last memory of Didi was him covering 3B on the Bohm almost-error the other night. Both Didi and Stott had the right instincts there. A solid, professional moment in his last Phillies game.

Now we need a major hot streak from Stott to get that bonus draft pick in the new collective bargaining agreement. He currently ranks 48th in WAR among position players so unfortunately a long way to go.

[Philsmania]

Post deleted--historical inaccuracy. I had said that Gillick was willing to eat Adam Eaton's and Geoff Jenkins's money but it was Amaro who released them.

Didi & Familia get paid roughly $21.25 million together. Even just a 1/3 if the season remains that's about $7 million. And, there's Herrera's 1/3 of $1.5 million and Kingery in Allentown.

[andyb]

Matt Winkelman makes a pretty good case here that these moves were designed for the Phillies to bring in a free agent at SS/2B next offseason. They solve the CF issue inexpensively and they kept all 3 top pitching prospects with some comments that they are considering them as options (more likely McGarry) for 2023.

Wonder if this means McGarry will get a quick bump to AAA this year if he has another few good starts in AA.

Phillies Deadline Moves Tip Hand On Future Team Construction

Marsh is in the line tonight (behind Thor on the mound). Segura at 2B and Stott at SS. Starting to resemble a pretty deep lineup, especially if Marsh can improve a bit. He will at least get a bunch of pitchers who have not seen him in the NL much.

[EDmuch]

Near the end of last year DD started talking about Stott being on the 2022 team and that has come to pass. Thus,I think his references to McGarry as an additional arm for 2023 team should be taken seriously.

[andyb]

He has actually implied that McGarry could be an option this year. Lots of dominoes would probably have to fall in place for that to happen but I guess it is possible.

[Austinfan]

Don't write off Falter for next year. He got a taste of ML hitters, and he's probably not far away, it's not like you're asking him to be a top 3, you'd be happy if he was an inexpensive 5th/6th starter.

Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, ???, McGarry/Falter, SD, Brogdon, Nelson, Bellatti, Alvardo.
Plassmeyer and Sanchez as candidates for bullpen depth, Miller/Morales though both probably start the season in Lehigh.
So you need a 4th starter and 3 BP guys, 2 of which are 7th inning plus quality.

You need one middle IF, worse case is Guthrie/Maton/Sosa/Kingery - with Harper back if Marsh can be salvaged they can carry a good field/no hit IF, but two would be pushing it. That assumes Stott discovers his hitting mojo, which is a pretty good bet.

So they can go big or go deep, depending on the market (that is, one mega-contract or 2-3 good contracts).

[andyb]

There is absolutely now way they will have Guthrie/Maton/Sosa/Kingery as a starting middle infield option at the beginning of the year. None.

They'll be in the market for Turner and others. They won't pencil in Falter as 5th starter either. Track record is terrible. AAA is not the majors and his stuff is average while his command is probably below average at the moment. He gives minor league hitters a different look and gets away with stuff that won't work in the majors.

[julio]

Post deleted--historical inaccuracy. I had said that Gillick was willing to eat Adam Eaton's and Geoff Jenkins's money but it was Amaro who released them.

Didi & Familia get paid roughly $21.25 million together. Even just a 1/3 if the season remains that's about $7 million. And, there's Herrera's 1/3 of $1.5 million and Kingery in Allentown.

Again - remember that these moves don't mean the Phils are "out" this money. It was all committed prior to the moves. They are replacing these guys, for the most part, with players receiving at or near the major-league minimum. For the last third of the season, that's about $235k apiece (Robertson is more like $1.15 million).

Yes, the guys they've cut loose get big paychecks regardless. But the actual cost of making the moves is not what they're paying those guys - they were already paying that. The cost is what they have to pay the replacements, and it's not very much. Moreover, as zambonir noted, if Familia, Didi or Herrera get picked up by somebody else, the Phils obligations to them decline by the major-league minimum which the signing club picks up.

Not to harp on this, but focusing on what the released (or outrighted, if Familia and/or Herrera clear waivers) get paid - as opposed to the additional cost the Phils have assumed here - seriously overstates the actual cost of making these improvements. Besides, it plays into the petty fan attitude that "players are paid too much," which leads to fans getting bent out of shape when players prove to be... human?

[zambonir]

They'll be in the market for Turner and others.

They only question is whether they will want a SS or 2B and that depends both on what they decide with Stott and who's available (and for how much). I think I would just as soon put the the older Turner at 2B (already where he'd played 1/3 of the time this year).

[andyb]

There are less expensive options like Boegarts and Dansby Swanson too.

[julio]

They only question is whether they will want a SS or 2B and that depends both on what they decide with Stott and who's available (and for how much). I think I would just as soon put the the older Turner at 2B (already where he'd played 1/3 of the time this year).

Maybe. Stott has been playing pretty well at 2B. If they were to sign a reliable SS, it wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world to have Bryson Stott, just possibly, step into Chase Utley's role.

[Austinfan]

You start with a baseline, then weigh options relative to that baseline.

So if McGarry/Falter is your 5th starter, do you pay $10M for a veteran who projects to be a 4.5+ ERA guy?
Or do you decide if I can't get a 4.0-4.5 guy, I invest that money into a deeper bullpen.

Same with say Sosa at SS and Stott at 2B, if I have a plus fielding pair, how much do I pay for additional offense in my middle infield.

The stronger your baseline, the higher the threshold to make an investment in a potential improvement.
So the last two months are also about evaluating your internal options before you go shopping.

[Dirk41]

Would also love if Correa opts out.

When was the last time that this many great SSs would be available?

[Taudawg]

That would be a surprise. Correa with two players options (23&24) at 35 mil. Hasn't played like a 35 mil player this year. I would expect him to exercise the 23 option and try to get back to his 2021 level.

[zambonir]

Maybe. Stott has been playing pretty well at 2B.

He has, but how many games is he going to play at 2B the rest of the season? (a few when Segura gets days off, with Sosa at SS, I'm sure, but not many).

[julio]

Maybe. Stott has been playing pretty well at 2B.

He has, but how many games is he going to play at 2B the rest of the season? (a few when Segura gets days off, with Sosa at SS, I'm sure, but not many).

We’ll, agreed, Stott won’t see much time at 2B the rest of this season — but if they sign a middle infielder this winter, the decision as to who plays where should be made on the basis of which arrangement provides the better overall defense; if they sign somebody who is a better defensive shortstop than Stott, then Stott should move to 2B. (What the players “want” should count for little; if somebody wants to put his personal druthers ahead of what’s best for the team…well, he can go play somewhere else.)

[BostonRoss]

(What the players “want” should count for little; if somebody wants to put his personal druthers ahead of what’s best for the team…well, he can go play somewhere else.)

Reminds me of when A-Rod went to the Yankees and Jeter wouldn't move off SS despite A-Rod being much better defensively.

[Philsmania]

(What the players “want” should count for little; if somebody wants to put his personal druthers ahead of what’s best for the team…well, he can go play somewhere else.)

Reminds me of when A-Rod went to the Yankees and Jeter wouldn't move off SS despite A-Rod being much better defensively.

But Jeter wouldn't get to do his spins.

[zambonir]

I suppose the best case would be that they sign someone who is a better SS than Stott now who gets replaced by Stott later (though if Stott plays 2B for a few years he might never move back).

Bryce said Trea Turner was his favorite player in MLB on the broadcast tonight, incidentally (I believe his previous favorite player was Realmuto). It does seem inevitable.

[EDmuch]

Listening to Bryce on the broadcast last nite and he really comes across as a very charming person. I don’t know if it comes naturally to him or maybe some consultant has worked with him about how to present himself in public. But he seems very down to earth and likeable.