2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I mean, it's the first road trip of the season and the article talks about how all of April is for gathering data. I'm sure in saying that, Hoskins expects to look at video and get that information, perhaps as soon as tomorrow's off-day.

But I also think that was a bit of a turn of phrase/rhetorical question - he already knows most of them are probably not strikes (almost by definition, with many breaking balls).

[allentown]

the article talks about how all of April is for gathering data.

Well, that's another strange statement. Other teams seem to be able to win, while they're compiling their month's worth of data and considering what changes to make. Perhaps they are more nimble and don't need to flounder for a month, before trying to adapt. And where is the guarantee that once we spend a month figuring things out, other teams won't readjust to whatever we do. The Phillies aren't a good enough team to wait a month to clean up problems. Games lost in April count as much as games lost in September. It's not a big deal in Hoskins case, as he is hitting well, but for much of the rest of the team.....? Of course, the hitting coach has far more pressing matters than Hoskins. The old bromides haven't served the Phillies particularly well in recent years (if ever?). Perhaps we should adopt 'the incredible urgency of change'.

[Philsmania]

And, not to mention, it looks like the 2022 Mets are worth every penny Cohen paid for them.

[andyb]

The Mets are definitely interesting. Money certainly helps with Scherzer now, but their start has been driven by dominant starting pitching including all of the other low paid starters. They have made smart trades (some like Carrasco clearly involved money).

The Phillies kind of gave up after their big ticket spending items. They decided to not get starting depth over the winter. They decided to not address CF. They have not moved on from Didi. Not to say any of those things would be game changers, but we are getting very little from CF and SS while we rushed Wheeler into the season without facing a single hitter in a preseason game.

[allentown]

The Phillies kind of gave up after their big ticket spending items. They decided to not get starting depth over the winter. They decided to not address CF. They have not moved on from Didi. Not to say any of those things would be game changers, but we are getting very little from CF and SS while we rushed Wheeler into the season without facing a single hitter in a preseason game.

I think they spent plenty, more than any other Phillies GM has ever been allowed to spend. They still have what I view as a poor idea of how you build a team and what is important. This is a continuation of the Kingery at SS view that defense is unimportant and far more players can adequately play almost anywhere than the supply of players who actual possess that capability. Loading up on DH-types and assuming to outhit the pitching and defensive deficiencies is not a proven approach to success. Both Schwarber and Castellanos as the determination on how you spend your $, when you already have Hoskins, Bohm, Didi, and even Harper: stupid. What should they have done:
1. I'll admit right off that my preferred off-season: splurge on SS (Correa or Story) hasn't worked thus far for Twins and Boston and that Schwarber/Castellanos may turn their O around faster than Correa. I nonetheless still see this as a more logical strategy

1. Castellanos or Schwarber + a pitcher

2. Castellanos or Schwarber + a CF

The problem likely is more with Middleton and the Phillies' decision-making process than with DD's individual choices: I think the off-season likely looks quite different if DD is greenlighted to exceed the lux tax cap early enough to make optimal use of the $. By the time DD got the light, too many options were off the table.

To me, this is the same sort of organizational dysfunction which resulted in giving away Lee for dross, after RAJ got Halladay. That was not a truly big one year over-budget, but refusing the $ badly altered the course of Phillies history.

[LoneStarPhan]

Phillies with the well needed off day Thursday and then start a 7 game home stand with the Brewers and Rockies. After a weekend (3 games) at the Mets, they are back at CBP for six more (Rangers 2, Mets 4).

These 16 games, 13 at home, are key to the season. If they can go 10-6, they will get back over .500 going into the second week of May.

I expect some roster moves by Friday. Herrera went 2 for 4 tonight for LV and should be ready to replace Muzziotti. Vierling will get some starts against some LH pitchers, but I expect Herrera will get the bulk of the starts in center at least for the next couple weeks.

I also think Stott needs to be sent down to AAA where he can start and play fulltime. He needs at bats. He is not getting them now. He has 4 hits in 30 at bats but 2 of those hits came on opening day and the other 2 in the final game against the Mets. I think it is critical to get him playing every day and that is not going to happen if he stays in the majors. Who to replace him? I would call up Maton unless they want to make a 40 man roster move and try Torreyes. I'm sure Joe would vote for that move.

Vierling has also struggled so fat this season. While I would not be too surprised to see him sent down at some point, I expect he will stay on the ML roster for now.

[zambonir]

I think it is critical to get him playing every day and that is not going to happen if he stays in the majors. Who to replace him? I would call up Maton unless they want to make a 40 man roster move and try Torreyes. I'm sure Joe would vote for that move.

Quinn really should try to add SS to his portfolio!

You almost have to feel bad for Vierling too in that he worked hard to become a utility player and while the opportunity to play CF was a good one there's really no use for him at any of the corners, except maybe as a late-inning sub.

[julio]

Quinn really should try to add SS to his portfolio!

Quinn started 149 games at SS in the minors, in 2012-2014, and appeared there in one game for the Phils (1.1 innings) in 2018. However, playing Quinn at SS is an invitation to get him hurt again.

[zambonir]

Oh, I know he did, they talked about trying him there more often (presumably in 2018 but maybe even more recently). As for the getting hurt part, that probably can't be helped wherever he plays (even expecting him to stay health in Allentown before a call-up comes is a stretch).

It just seems like if you can't hit but can play SS and OF passably you might get another year or so of service time (over 2-3 seasons). I believe Torreyes and Maton both played CF last year too.

[LoneStarPhan]

I actually forgot about Quinn. Last time we went to Clearwater, we saw him at SS in a couple spring games. That was 2018 as I recall, and Kingery was all the rage.

With Camargo, Segura, Gregorious, and Bohm on the roster, Quinn being able to fill in as an emergency infielder while being primarily an outfielder might work.

Of course, Quinn might be considered as a replacement for Vierling at some point if Vierling continues to struggle this season.

I would not be surprised to see Torreyes on the ML roster sometime in the near future.

[bkeich]

However, playing Quinn ... is an invitation to get him hurt again.

I fixed your statement for you. Playing him anywhere is a time bomb. Actually, just having him come to the stadium is dangerous.

[andyb]

Quinn would only be a substitute for the right-handed side of the CF platoon at the moment. He might be more useful in that role than Vierling if Veirling continues to struggle. Anything more (and even health at that platoon role) would be a bonus. The left-handed side of the platoon is Herrera's at the moment but he'll have to be better than Moniak (who presumably will get a couple of weeks of minor league rehab when he is healthy) by the beginning of June.

I only threw out Quinn because he might be better than Vierling at the role Vierling is playing now. He is not a SS. He just might be the least bad of multiple mediocre options in CF. Face it. We don't really have a major league CF at the moment. There have been a couple of fly balls this week that Muzziotti or Quinn might have caught but Vierling didn't. The whole concept of Vierling in CF was acceptable defense (which he gives even though it is probably below average) coupled with good offense on his strong platoon side. He needs to start hitting to keep his role.

[BostonRoss]

I saw Quinn play in what I think was his first game back last week in Worcester. He looked really bad (poor swings at bad pitches) and left the game early. Of course, it would be hard to be worse than the big club's CF so far, and Quinn was better than that when he was on the Phillies last season.

[andyb]

He is 4-10 with 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BBs, and 3 Ks so far, so you probably saw his one bad game. The walk rate increase is intriguing if he can keep that up. He is simply worth keeping an eye on if Vierling continues to struggle (and by all reports he is a good kid who has worked really hard as injuries have wrecked his career).

[Austinfan]

We're still in extended spring training, ST was truncated by two weeks, so players are just where they'd be if they broke camp.
The fact that some teams started hot, big deal, there's a lengthy list of hot Aprils followed by mid-season collapses.

The key to the season
1) get the five starters on track, Wheeler is concerning, the others not so much, hard to read into a pitching performance in Coor's field other than Eflin has his velo.
2) get the bullpen set, Familia is concerning but velo is there, Knebel, Hand, Alvarado, SD, Norwood, Nelson, Sanchez. Falter needs a little more velo to be credible as the 6th starter.
3) get the hitters warmed up.

So far Camargo looks like a great pickup, he got buried in Atl, went to AAA and didn't pout and showed he belong back in the show (.958 OPS last year at 27), and so far is looking like a great 10th man.

With Bohm seemingly past his yips in the field, and looking like the #4 pick at the plate, time to send Stott to AAA to play every day. Same with Muzzioti as soon as Herrera and Quinn are ready. Might need them by August, 400 minor league ABs could make a big difference. Sands, Stott, Kingery and Muzzioti at Lehigh is nice insurance.

Vierling will probably get another week or two, then he may join the others in AAA. Play the kids or send them down, but the worst thing they can do, not just for the future but for later this season, is to bury them on the bench without the PA to help refine their game.

[allentown]

We're still in extended spring training, ST was truncated by two weeks, so players are just where they'd be if they broke camp.
The fact that some teams started hot, big deal, there's a lengthy list of hot Aprils followed by mid-season collapses.

If we were a stronger team, that would be valid. Since the Phillies project as a marginal wild card team, they really cannot afford this start. Yes, it's early with a shortened ST, but other teams faced the same problem. As with work stoppages in NFL as well as MLB, some teams hung together better, with the players all working to get into peak condition during the stoppage, while other teams' players took an extended off-season rest. Guess which teams made the playoffs.

Stott isn't going to AAA until DD is able to play.

[zambonir]

Stott isn't going to AAA until DD is able to play.

DD: the initials of our general manager.

Didi: the nickname of our shortstop (I sure would love to hear Harry Kalas say his full name: Mariekson Julius Gregorius!)

I don't think he's supposed to be out for long. If he goes on the IL that would certainly clear the logjam for a while.

I think you are both right (it's still spring training, and this team can't afford to fall so far behind - though history does say you can, including Phillies history). But there's not really a fix is there?

But I doubt the Phillies players were lazier or trained less in the off-season than other team's players. It's still just not a well-run team or well-designed roster. And what seemed like a very necessary bunch of changes last season (i.e. getting a new hitting and fielding coach) backfired when they didn't get any time to work with the players. The Mets have the same challenge; they just made better off-season moves and probably have a better manager (that we didn't hire) too.

[allentown]

DD: the initials of our general manager.

Didi: the nickname of our shortstop (I sure would love to hear Harry Kalas say his full name: Mariekson Julius Gregorius!)

Yes, I often mistype homonyms when typing fast, athough this is one of the stranger ones I've done.

[zambonir]

If it were up to Julio we'd never use nicknames or abbreviations

[Austinfan]

162 games is a long time, most seasons the first 40 are a shakeout cruise - how often have we seen teams that are 20-20 or so get hot and win 80 of the next 122?

Which is why you should wait until July to panic!