2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I am sympathetic to the idea that the Phillies are not only playing below their potential but are underperforming their differential (which has them 23-21). Even though it's still a small sample. But if they are actually between .475 and .525 come July 25th and still have a positive differential after that many more games, they are absolutely wild card contenders. And 84-86 wins probably will be enough. Right now Fangraphs predicts Phillies at 83.5, missing the last spot to the Cardinals at 84.2.

Deadline moves aren't hard to guess: they will need a starter upgrade even unless everyone is perfectly healthy and better than they sometimes have been. They obviously need one more relief arm as ever. And if they are serious, they actually do get a CF or a SS (unless Didi surprises), or even consider the higher risk/reward of trading Hoskins. If they're not serious they just repeat last year and add another spare part.

[bigegypt0417]

joe Girardi is the wrong manager for this team.

I normally have no real feeling about managers but i have developed a strong dislike for him...it's the same one I have for Doc Rivers.

[zambonir]

And I'm not sure either of them are bad, but ultimately being disliked by or unconnected to the fan base is an easier way to get fired than being bad at the rest of the jobs. And in both cases, we were told they could achieve more than their predecessors (which is absolutely the expectation for the Sixers and was at least Middleton's delusion with the Phillies).

I bet you Mackanin could manage this team better.

[bigegypt0417]

In my opinion...both want to manage their way and not manage to how their teams are built.

Both seem to lack the ability to adjust to their rosters.

There is no real evolution to their styles.

Neither is a bad leader...they just aren't very good at the type of team they have.

[Taudawg]

I'm in the camp that changing managers won't make a huge difference, yet at the same time, I don't think Girardi is going to be back in 2023. He's not Dombrowksi's guy and Girardi isn't guaranteed another year. Dombrowski is not going anywhere. I suppose you don't shake things up if you don't think you can get the future guy now as that guy is probably on another team's staff or otherwise unavailable.

[Austinfan]

The guys who are underachieving are Realmuto, Schwarber and Castellanos.

Realmuto is what I was afraid of, his offense is slipping and while his defense is top notch, if the league goes to automated strike zones (which I hope, it would improve the game over erratic umpires) that removes some of his edge there. He's not hitting well for a catcher, much less a DH.

Hoskins needs to go, he's a subpar fielding 1B on a team with no room at DH.
Bohm is struggling at 3B, but is young enough to improve.
Stott needs to be in AAA.
Didi and Segura are subpar fielders with no upside.

Camargo and Stubbs were solid bench additions, but they can't carry the load for subpar starters.

Suarez is the only SP struggling, and even then, he's pitching like a #5 instead of a #3.
The bullpen hasn't been awful, but no one has stepped up either.
SD looks like he's back, at some point the kid gloves have to come off.
Morales may be the key to the second half, he has late inning stuff if he can throw his breaking ball more consistently.

Problem is their three best pitching prospects are in A ball, not much at Lehigh or Reading.

[Taudawg]

Didi and Segura are subpar fielders with no upside

Not going to disagree with much, but this idea that Segura is subpar fielder has been disproven many times. Segura is an average to above average 2b. I haven't seen a single defensive metric to suggest Segura being subpar at 2b.

[bigegypt0417]

The guys who are underachieving are Realmuto, Schwarber and Castellanos.

They are underachieving...the three will also be fine by the end of the season.

they are losing because they still have the same bullpen issues they have had for years and a manager who still depends on dead arms when everyone knows the outcome. Once again...one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

[zambonir]

Broadcast last night talked about how hot Schwarber was. .841 OPS .364 OBP in last 14 days.

Segura's fine, he's hitting, his defense his adequate, he's gone after this year.

[andyb]

Our only 2 plus defenders at the moment are Realmuto and Segura. Stott seems average at SS which is a bit better than Didi.

If one looks at where this team could do a temporary upgrade that is meaningful it would be SS. Stott does not seem ready. If Didi is hurt we should give up hope of getting anything plus out of him (where we do have platoon options in CF). Just don't know if this team is close enough for a big move to make a difference. There could be as much upside in making Camargo the full time SS as any other potential move.

[flyers19rw]

Don't put Segura in a casket too soon. The Phillies have no one that can play that position and better than him nor hit as well as he does for a 2B. The club has an option on him for next season. It would surprise me if they don't exercise it. Some think that he'll be gone to save salary next year. That may happen but the only major salary drop will be Gregorious. I expect JS to be here through '23.

[Taudawg]

Segura's option is 17mil. I like Jean, think he's a good player, but I don't see Phillies picking up the option.

[andyb]

Segura also might be our most flippable asset (maybe Knebel too) at the deadline if we fall out of contention.

[Austinfan]

That's actually not a big deal, not much of a raise over his current salary, and at $7M a WAR (the price you should pay in FA or why bother?), he'd only have to be 2.5+ WAR to justify picking up his option (and far less risk on a one year deal).

Given no alternative at 3B and SS (i.e. Stott not moving to 2B), Kingery and Maton still a question mark, it's not that unreasonable to think they'd pick up the option to buy a year. I'm sure they'll bring back Camargo, but he's probably better suited as a super utility guy.

[BostonRoss]

I’m ready to give Castellanos some time off to clear his head. Play Stubbs in RF.

[zambonir]

Segura is certainly more worthy of his option than Herrera or Cutch were but I still think he doesn't get it, and doesn't get more than $10-12 million from any team next year. He is currently the 4th-highest paid 2B in the league and also the 4th-highest OPS, so that's great, but I still think you quit while you're ahead and before he ages another year.

Where it actually gets interesting is if they do fall far enough out to be sellers, because he has a no-trade and would probably want the option exercised.

2B are easy to come by but I do agree that the Phillies' current alternatives don't look so great either. If they end up going after a completely different SS or 3B entirely though, an average 2B (including a grab-bag of Stott, Kingery and Camargo) might be okay.

[David_Criss]

Besides Harper and Bohm, Segura has been the only other one really hitting a lick recently.
Stott needs to be at AAA, he got a good taste of Major League action and wasn't/isn't ready just yet. Then who plays SS?
They can trade Hoskins and call up Hall or move Bohm over and let Camago play 3B. But I don't see that happening.
I like bringing Falter up for a start. This kid rarely misses the plate. Suarez looked real earlier this month in Seattle and LA, but can't get past the 4th the last two starts - wondering if there is something there and this could be a safety move if Suarez needs an IL stint......

[andyb]

538 thinks the Phillies defense is good enough:

The Phillies’ Defense Might Be Good Enough

I guess if we hit like we are supposed to. We are just not seeing enough of that yet.

[EDmuch]

I really wish people would stop with this talk about cutting our losses at the trade deadline. For gosh sakes, last year’s World Series Champ was below .500 at the trade deadline. The year before the Nats were left for dead in June. There is plenty of time left to win this thing. Eulogies in May are sort of silly.

[zambonir]

The difference is those teams had won multiple division championships and proven themselves worthy of doubling down, plus they had more young talent to deal from. This group has yet to even make the postseason.

If they're actually bad enough to be sellers, we'll know. If they're on the fence, they will fall on the buy side.