2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[Taudawg]

Not sure any one of them makes a huge difference. Mullins and Reynolds way down from 21. Is the new fence in Baltimore the difference? Red flag.

[zambonir]

Yup it's a darned if you do darned if you don't move - the guys you can afford (given still-thin farm) are the ones with the question marks. That said almost anyone would be an upgrade if you don't think Herrera can stay at a decent level or Moniak's the answer. Another reason there's no rush, but it's going to be interesting when it's time to give Mickey a shot.

[BaseballCat]

The play to date does not lead me to trade anyone of value and certainly not Abel or Painter. I might consider all remaining bodies if the team starts playing more consistently. At this point I would go with the best defender that can bat over .200 - someone that can cover alot of ground. If that is someone we have - great, but I am not giving up our two most recent #1s in any trade.

[Aquapong]

Yeah we need to ride it out and give Mickey a shot. According to Fangraphs the Phils are 7th in the MLB for collective defensive score and 12th in UZR150. Not great but not a defensive nightmare either. If we’re going to give up big assets, it better be for Mullins.

[zambonir]

It's very unlikely the Phillies would trade any top prospects (a list that also includes Stott), and prospects of that caliber are rarely included in mid-season deals anyway, especially when there's $ involved.

Still plenty of players 6-20 they could move, but even that is not an easy thing to do for this farm system when you are merely trying to salvage a season/steal a wild card. Plus if you want to strike early you'd have to overpay with a pre-emptive offer.

Different story if it's July 15 and they've actually turned out to be a solid .525, .550 team. Or if they could get Juan Soto....

[andyb]

I think they really need to get a better idea of how much they can get out of Bryce before they even think of marginal moves. Something like Kiermeier near the deadline when there are fewer dollars and prospects involved still seems the most likely. And that timeline would allow another couple of months to see what they can get out of Moniak or any of their other CF options (Kingery, Vierling) in addition to seeing whether Quinn and Herrera play well.

[Aquapong]

One thing is clear over the past few days… we need Harper in the lineup. Whether he’s doing the damage himself or his presence gets the guys in front of or behind him in the order pitches to hit…we need him.

[phillychuck]

Really was a shame how hot he was when he got the shot...

[zambonir]

June trades are just rare no matter what. But you can't get an answer at CF by trying out five different guys... or even three different guys. I think Vierling has already had his shot, and Quinn is not a starter. All that is really left to do is give Herrera another month - no harm in letting Moniak take that long in AAA - and then give Moniak a month, if you can't have them both on the roster at the same time. But even then what if Moniak is just a first-time-through success like Vierling and terrible later in the season?

Kingery, I'd like to see him force the issue for even the last spot on the bench. But a lot of players struggle to produce in their first season after being fully recovered from injury.

[Taudawg]

I'd love to see Kingery force the issue as well. Of course this would all have to happen quickly, but... Hoskins traded in a deal for CF/pitching, Bohm shifts to first, Kingery takes over 2B, Stott puts a hold on SS and Segura shifts to 3B. Completely changes the look of clubhouse (IMO - needed) and significantly improves the defense.

Could be able to get Enrique Hernández or Kevin Kiermaier straight up for Hoskins.

[andyb]

A Moniak/Quinn platoon might give you better defense and a 700 OPS potentially. Really curious how Moniak evaluates in CF defensively when we see some real metrics. There is nothing wrong with a platoon when you get acceptable results. The Phillies have 5 options to get to that platoon and one would have to question whether any player that they could acquire with their financial and prospect limitations.

We don't have 5 players competing to be the CF. We have 2 competing to be the LH side of a platoon (Herrera, Moniak) and 3 on the right side (Quinn, Vierling, Kingery).

[zambonir]

I don't think the Rays would take Hoskins though I suppose they could flip him in the off-season.

And that's a pretty big fantasy you just laid out there! I will settle for Kingery on the bench and Stott playing well enough to replace Didi. By force the issue I merely meant Kingery doing enough to even get back on the 40 and earn a look. In your scenario I'd probaby just make him the CF (i.e. if he's good enough to play everyday at 2B and displace the only good IF we have, he's good enough to play CF).

We're all worried about Harper but I also don't think we can overstate how much it messes up the line-up that no one else can DH.

[andyb]

The Rays will not want Hoskins. Guessing they see 1B as a position where offense can be acquired on the cheap. More likely they trade for Darrick Hall and see him hit 30 HR for the major league minimum.....

[zambonir]

We don't have 5 players competing to be the CF. We have 2 competing to be the LH side of a platoon (Herrera, Moniak) and 3 on the right side (Quinn, Vierling, Kingery).

Well sure but I think we have enough information on most of them. All three of the RHBs are not currently acceptable options, even on the short end of the platoon, even if that may yet change. But swapping Quinn for Vierling is merely a wash and Kingery is probably two months away. He still needs the 200 ABs he never got last year.

And then Herrera is merely an adequate option. And also loses his role if you want to give Moniak a chance.

Of course if we lose Harper suddenly these guys are all in the mix for LF too. But we sure don't want that.

[allentown]

If we lose Harper, there is no point in making a move to 'fix' CF, because we've got zero chance. Even with Harper, we've struggled to be a .500 team.

[andyb]

Vierling has started to hit the past few games and we do know that he might have needed some AAA time. We don't "know" him as a bad player. We know him as a guy who played well in a small sample size last year and poorly this year in an even smaller sample. While also having good advanced metrics on exit velocity which suggests improvement is very possible.

We also know Quinn was walking more in AAA so could be useful in a limited role on his stronger platoon side while also providing late inning defense and pinch running off the bench.

We know Moniak played well in Spring Training. We don't know yet whether he can take that into the regular season but it is possible.

We know Kingery has been a decent bat in the past and is now healthy.

We know Herrera was a positive WAR player last year and is again this year with a .773 OPS. He is frustrating but is hitting better than most of the 6 named in that article.

The cupboard is not bare in CF even if none of the options is that good in the long run or even in any non-platoon role. There just is not a reason to make a trade for a marginal improvement over what we have because what we have is not awful.

This chart from BR is kind of fun. Pick PHI in the team highlight drop down and it shows relative rankings. SS is our weakest spot. LF is as bad as CF. The Braves are worse at each OF spot though. We did shore up DH this offseason....

2022 MLB Team Position Performance by Wins Above Average |...

[Taudawg]

And that's a pretty big fantasy you just laid out there!

Yup. Except a variation or some portion of it isn't hard to achieve. Hoskins may have low trade value, he is easily tradable for something.

[zambonir]

If we lose Harper, there is no point in making a move to 'fix' CF, because we've got zero chance. Even with Harper, we've struggled to be a .500 team.

I mean, probably. But it still depends on how things play out, and the timing. If he plays for the next eight weeks and the Phillies actually start winning again and then the worst happens, I can't see them white-flagging it, even though the injury would give them very good reason to do so (as well as PR cover). As all-in as the team is this year it seems more likely to me that they would go out and get a LF as well as a CF, if they could.

But, it's doubtful the team will actually play that well, and if Harper got shut down sooner, the losses would also come.

But for now, the status quo is the status quo. We have a .500 team and a Harper who can only DH. And a team that's probably not good enough - and a farm that's not deep enough - to inspire an aggressive June move. Late July, we'll see.

[Taudawg]

Can't see them surrendering at all this year. Too much invested. If Harper goes down, Nick plays RF or the Phillies acquire a bat. As Braves showed last year, picking up corner OF bat or DH type at the deadline doesn't require much.

[zambonir]

Well, Nick is already the RF for probably another eight weeks (Harper can't even throw for six and I would think reinjury risk is higher if they rush/overuse him too).

I think surrendering will take care of itself. If they are in legit playoff contention (which is still true now), no. But the Braves had a proven record of winning the NL East last year. The Phillies probably can't win the NL East. What they invested this year was supposed to at least produce NL East contention or a top wild card spot and if that's out of reach, they should back away. Being pot committed isn't worth it if you only get to win 20% of the pot.

And if they are again a .450 team on July 15, it should be over.