2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[Austinfan]

Abel and Painter could get buy for an inning or two just on heat and one secondary pitch, but after that the league would have film and they'd be in trouble. Plus kids have a tendency to overthrow with Adrenalin and could hurt themselves.

[zambonir]

Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin unlikely to rejoin Phillies until after series against...

[Dusty]

9-0 ain’t bad………….in the 8th. I doubt they’ll blow this one.

[zambonir]

On the Phillies listserv someone said he was going to feel like it could happen again any time all season, whereas I reckon it probably won't happen again for another 20 years or more.

[LoneStarPhan]

Morales pitches the 7th and 8th innings in the first game in Seatle. Faces six, walks one followed by DP, strikes out 3. Part of the shutout with Suarez and Norwood (9th inning).

[gmwannabe]

Zamby, you are correct. I seem to have trouble getting anything by you. Although A Town has a point about the young pitchers. how old was Ray Cup when he was brought up?
gm

[phillychuck]

Joe Nuxhall was 15 when he made his big-league debut. Different times, and he was sent down shortly afterwards. 24.something ERA in 0.2 IP. During the war (1944). He did not return to the big leagues until he was 24, but pitched every year from then on until he was 37. Long time Reds' broadcaster with Marty Brennneman.

[andyb]

There used to be a bunch of teenagers that got a cup of coffee in the 1950s because of the bonus baby rules. From 1947-1965 any player signed for a bonus of $4,000 or more had to be on the major league roster for a full season. In rare cases like Sandy Koufax they stuck (with some ups and downs) but many of them just sat and went to the minors the next year.

Without that rule the Yankees would have just signed everyone.

[allentown]

Zamby, you are correct. I seem to have trouble getting anything by you. Although A Town has a point about the young pitchers. how old was Ray Cup when he was brought up?
gm

Ray Culp was 21. After Wise's remarkably good season for an 18-year old, he also returned to the minors. Not saying it is a good thing to go straight from HS to MLB, just saying that it happened and that the Phillies participated in that, because at the time there was no other way to land a big-talent HS kid. l
On the other hand, Abel is now 20 and in high A and doing fine. The big negative for bringing him up is that it takes up a roster spot in a year in which the Phillies are still likely going to limit his IP. Wise was limited to only 70 IP as an 18 year old, including 8 starts. He then spent the next year in the minors.

[andyb]

I am not sure there are many scenarios where we would see Abel or Painter before they turned 21. Abel really needs to work on his control. Hopefully he gets to Reading by the end of the year, but then of course he will need to transition to a 5-man rotation there.

Painter has better initial results and could move a bit quicker I suppose, though he is really only throwing 2 pitches now. Assume they vary his arsenal as the season goes on and try to get him to Jersey Shore throwing 80-90 pitches a start.

I guess there is a scenario where Painter could be ready next year. Any top prospect could get promoted from Reading if they dominated there. There is just not much incentive for any team to rush a high school pitcher. Hunter Greene is showing he could have used more seasoning and he is 22 (though he missed 2 years because of TJ).

[Austinfan]

Yeah, both should start next year in Reading, barring any setbacks. Then a promotion to Lehigh if all goes well by August. Then a long look in ST in 2024.

[flyers19rw]

Getting quickly to the show and having them then get beat up for lack of control or a shortage of effective pitches aside from a FB and a still not refined breaking ball does them no good. First of all, the organization needs to protect the health of their arms by gradually building up their pitch counts. After that, control needs to be refined as secondary pitches are added to their repertoire. The phans need to be patient.

[Philsmania]

I do remember, however, the Braves bringing up Glavine and Smoltz pretty young in the late '80's and letting them get beat up for a year or two while they developed at the ML level. The Braves, of course, had no intention of contending in those seasons and were doing the process long before anyone heard of the process. The Phillies may or may not have designs on contending at that point.

[andyb]

That is not what I was saying. Abel is ahead of Painter now. We actually don't know if Painter will catch up because he is still using a more limited pitch arsenal. Early results suggest he might, but we do not know that.

They both are on limited pitch counts in essentially 7-day rotations. Abel will get to 90 pitches before Painter does. And Reading along with the transition to a 6 and then 5-man schedule.

I would not put them both off till 2024 though. If they are good they could easily pitch in Philly at some point next year. A dozen good starts in Reading on a 5-man schedule and they could be promoted directly from there. Not saying it will or even should happen, but performance can force things. Each pitcher is on their own schedule. At the moment they both have things to learn and durability to acquire. Another 15 months can change things.

[andyb]

Falter to start today. No corresponding transaction yet but thinking they will send Morales or Brogdon down.

Still need a starter for tomorrow also. Maybe Sanchez on 3 days since he really did a long reliever stint anyway rather than a full start on Sunday. Assume they can get Sanchez again because of the COVID IL.

[bkox]

the Braves bringing up Glavine and Smoltz pretty young in the late '80's and letting them get beat up for a year or two while they developed at the ML level

Glavine and Smoltz both had full years at AAA before that though. Smoltz had 61 total minor league starts over 3 years. Glavine had 85 over 4 years. 440 Minor league innings pitched for Glavine and 550 for Smoltz.

[zambonir]

Well, again, good job GM in turning this into a serious conversation! I suppose right now the Phillies actually are desperate enough that a one-off start by someone who isn't ready wouldn't be unlikely, but not without the 40-man exemption. What's sad is there still isn't anyone we can think of who would get it ahead of those guys.

Maybe they should just let Crouse do it. He's pitching terribly but he's on the 40, he's been in the majors before, the game is probably not winnable anyway, maybe the call-up goes differently for him.

Whatever/whenever Abel or Painter can be ready the Phillies have a lot of rotation holes to fill in 2023 (Eflin, Gibson) and 2024 (Nola). Wheeler gone in 2025.

[andyb]

Cole Hamels had 36 minor league starts before getting promoted. It can happen more quickly (and some of Cole's starts were really rehab starts).

It probably will be 2024 or even later, but we really don't know that for sure yet.

[andyb]

Maybe they should just let Crouse do it. He's pitching terribly but he's on the 40, he's been in the majors before, the game is probably not winnable anyway, maybe the call-up goes differently for him.

Crouse is hurt. Has not pitched since April 20th. McArthur and Sanchez are the other potential starters on the 40 that are not hurt as of now.

[zambonir]

It would be cool if it was 2023 but they can't make off-season moves based on that. They're set up pretty well for 2024-2025 (with whoever they sign/re-sign along the way) if both of them stay healthy.

Another reason to expand the 40 - injured minor league pitchers still count against it.