2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

julio 2022-08-19 01:51:16 UTC #41

it is. He's been placed on the IL-Full Season list in AAA. I don't think it's possible to so list a player, and then say, "Oh, never mind."

What we don't know (or at least, I don't know!) about Muzziotti's knee injury is not whether it's season-ending – it's whether it is serious enough to threaten his career (beyond the obvious impact that it's cost him an opportunity to play in the majors this year, and prospects don't get unlimited opportunities like that).

zambonir 2022-08-19 02:23:07 UTC #42

Got it. But he's not yet on the major league 60-day IL - a move the Phillies have left to make if they need it. But at this point they are probably happy to not have to take on yet another injured-player major league salary, especially since Zimmer makes more than minimum - if still not that much. The Harper timing allows them to do it.

andyb 2022-08-19 11:43:34 UTC #43

Muzziotti not being on the 60-day IL yet does present an easy move for the Phillies to bring back Bryce at any point. The easy scenario is September 1. If they do it a few days earlier they will just try to get Zimmer through waivers to Lehigh Valley (using the Muzziotti 60-day move) or simply release him.

Zimmer is a placeholder. He will not get offered arbitration next year. He might not even get major league offers as a free agent. If the Phillies like what they see they might try to keep him around as depth on an expensive minor league deal (like $200K a year), but that is it. The plan is still Marsh then Muzziotti then Rojas with Vierling as the depth and potential platoon partner. Hard to see Zimmer changing that in the 10 days or so he is likely here.

Austinfan 2022-08-19 13:51:26 UTC #44

Rojas is at least a year away, Muzzioti is probably a half AAA season or more.
Given how bad our corner OFs are defensively, carrying two OFs who are plus defensively would be a possibility.

Long will have enough time to evaluate Zimmer and decide if he can be fixed - it's not like he needs to drastically improve with his speed and defense. In 2021, his 89 RC+ was good enough for 1.4 WAR (FG) in 100 games. And that was with a 35% K rate. In 2017, a 79 RC+ was good enough for 1.3 WAR in 100 games. His struggles this season come with a ridiculously low BABIP. Which may reflect his approach to hitting, he has just enough power to be seduced into overswinging.

andyb 2022-08-19 14:17:18 UTC #45

But we are talking about next year. There is just no way they are going to devote a roster spot to what is now a AAAA guy who is easily replaced. As I said, if they can get him through waivers and then he chooses a minor league deal he might stay, but other than that there are 10 other guys they could sign to minor league deals also that are as good as Zimmer.

He is a placeholder who plays decent defense. That is it.

Austinfan 2022-08-19 14:29:19 UTC #46

There aren't 10 guys they can sign to minor league contracts who can play plus defense in CF.
Same with Sosa at SS.

It's much easier to find AAAA guys who hit just enough to be on the bubble but can't field than to find plus fielders who have flashed the ability to maybe hit enough to start in the majors. Both Sosa and ZImmer have done so, they just haven't been able to maintain their offense at a high enough level - but plus fielders don't need drastic improvements the way someone like Hall did to have value.

Not saying he's a lock, but if Long thinks there are improvements that could be made, they may want to keep him around - as a top athlete, he has a few years left before the age curve dooms him. And they'd rather not rush Muzzioti and Rojas.

bkeich 2022-08-19 14:30:05 UTC #47

Taking my wife to her first ever top level professional game (of any sport) Next Friday, August 26. I have not been to a Phillies game in 5 years. Going to be fun

Lucky_Beagle 2022-08-19 14:35:44 UTC #48

Could they keep Zimmer up and send Vierling to AAA for Sept provided Marsh returns?

I am still under the impression Zimmer would not be able to play in the playoffs as he wasn't with the team before the trade deadline and was on another teams 40 man roster. Please feel free to correct me if needed.

flyers19rw 2022-08-19 14:51:00 UTC #49

Zimmer has talent; especially speed and glove. However his hitting has always been a question mark since he is hyper in the batter's box. He often changes his footing and swing from pitch to pitch. He'd be a challenge for Long to straighten out. Now after having a series of injuries, one of which led to shoulder surgery, he has a lot of question marks about his game.

andyb 2022-08-19 15:20:44 UTC #50

They could, but it unbalances the bench. Both Zimmer and Marsh are left-handed. So is Bryce when he comes up so you probably already have Hall as your left-handed bat off the bench. The Phillies need a right-handed bat and ideally one who can play CF.

Zimmer just is not that good these days. Somebody will bring him to camp next year on a minor league deal with a chance to win a major league roster spot. There is just no reason for the Phillies to think he is better than Marsh or any of their other left-handed bats that need to be in the lineup like Schwarber and Harper. And he is not better than Vierling against left-handed pitching (570 career OPS for Zimmer).

andyb 2022-08-19 15:25:59 UTC #51

There are lots of Travis Jankowskis and Roman Quinns out there. You just don't sign them to guaranteed contracts once they hit arbitration and are no longer worth it. You seem offended that somebody would say Zimmer is now a AAAA player. That has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his performance. Guys like him just don't get major league contracts until they perform. That means he'll shop himself around to all 30 teams for the best spot. There is just little to say that the Phillies are that best spot for him. They have a guy 4 years younger that has the job for now and a bunch of kids who will be ready starting next year. The Phillies are probably one of the lesser fits for Zimmer for next year.

And all that has exactly zero to with whether someone like Long can fix him. The Phillies just don't need him enough to devote a roster spot to him. That means he'll go shopping in the offseason.

Adding Matt's thoughts which are along the same lines of the Phillies needing a body for the next 10-14 days and really not expecting anything more:

David_Criss 2022-08-19 16:55:33 UTC #52

I know Guthrie is right handed, but really thought he'd get a shot, especially with Muzziotti and obvious 60-day option.....

zambonir 2022-08-19 17:21:10 UTC #53

Pretty sure I already did (in another thread or maybe that was someone else). But here's the details. Correct me if I'm wrong (i.e. if this page is out of date).

In a typical season, any player who is on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list as of 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31 is eligible for the postseason.

A player who doesn't meet said criteria for postseason eligibility can still be added to a team's roster in the postseason via petition to the Commissioner's Office if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list and has served the minimum amount of time required for activation. (For example, a player on the 10-day injured list who has been on it for at least 10 days, or a player who has been on the 60-day injured list for at least 60 days.) Players who are acquired in September or after are ineligible.

Seems to me that ever since they changed the rules some after K-Rod you can pretty much get anyone onto the playoff roster so long as someone is injured (including, as it says above, anyone on the 60). The only guys you can't are the ones acquired on 9/1 or later.

So if the Phillies wanted to call up McGarry on the last day of the season he'd still be playoff eligible (he'd be replacing Eflin or Knebel).

Lucky_Beagle 2022-08-19 17:26:26 UTC #54

You had answered, but I still wasn't sure if your answer was "opinion" based or factually based. (like mine was opinion based without any real rules in front of me)
Reading what you added this time (thanks!) I do believe he would be eligible if desired (and of course the Phillies qualify). I believe I was combining the ability to acquire via a trade with post season eligibility.

andyb 2022-08-19 17:34:10 UTC #55

It does seem that MLB will approve adding any player in the organization as of 8/31 to the playoff roster even if they were not on the 40 or 26-man rosters yet. It is not written that way, but I think there are multiple instances of non-40 man callups the last few years.

The whole intent of the rule is to prevent somebody from outside the organization as of 8/31 from being added to the roster. Say an expensive player on an expiring contract that got released to hook onto a playoff team.

zambonir 2022-08-19 17:39:56 UTC #56

If memory serves when we acquired Tad Iguchi for the second time he wasn't playoff-eligible. They just figured he might be able to help for the stretch run with expanded rosters.

andyb 2022-08-19 18:15:23 UTC #57

Key difference is whether that person is inside the organization before or after 8/31. If we claimed Zimmer on 9/2 he probably would not be eligible. Claiming him now means he is. And Griff McGarry would also be eligible too since he has obviously been with the organization. That would probably require a waiver, but there is really no reason for MLB to deny it. There is no unfair competitive advantage being given which is the intent of the rule.

zambonir 2022-08-19 18:23:29 UTC #58

Right. The other big change of course, separate but not unrelated, is that you can't make any major league waiver trades in August. So no way to acquire a Matt Stairs (who was obviously very playoff-eligible) or Justin Bour/Jose Bautista (who would have been) before 8/31 anymore unless their team just lets them go (as with Zimmer).

Austinfan 2022-08-19 18:43:31 UTC #59

" They have a guy 4 years younger that has the job for now and a bunch of kids who will be ready starting next year."

In what universe?
Maybe Guthrie, but while he's hitting better, he's still struggling with plate discipline.
Muzzioti probably needs a full season at AAA, we've seen this year how kids struggle when they don't have enough minor league ABs.
Rojas is probably 2 years away.

Who else? Ortiz is never going to sniff the majors, and the rest are in low A ball.

Zimmer could be a good addition to the bench if they want to carry two OFs, especially if Vierling can also fill in at IF spots. Do they carry 4 or 5 next year on the bench. If Harper has to DH, is Hall worthy of a roster spot?
Stubbs/Sands, Sosa, Vierling, Zimmer.

This is where you gather information, have Long work with and evaluate him, and then make a decision in the off-season.

julio 2022-08-19 18:45:07 UTC #60

I think somebody (andyb?) already addressed this: If they add Guthrie to the 40-man, they either have to leave him on the 40-man (not only for the rest of tis season, but indefinitely), or try to pass him through waivers. If they don't intend to add him to the 40-man this November (e.g., expose him to the Rule 5 Draft), but still value him, they may not want to expose him to waivers. They may not have enough slots on the 40-man to include Guthrie on the winter roster (I haven't really looked at this - it's pretty early); if they don't, then adding him to the roster now, and then waiving him sometime between now and November, would basically be throwing him away.