2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[zambonir]

Thor still has to make a start as well this week. I'm curious to see Devenski. Seems like McGarry is off the table. But I bet he goes to Clearwater which is apparently where Hall (and presumably anyone else on the 40 if not on taxi squad) goes too.

[andyb]

Hall should really travel with the team along with an extra pitcher or two. We don't want to lose someone on Tuesday and then have to fly in the replacement (guessing on the pitching side that is Sanchez).

As for McGarry Clearwater does seem the right move. Simulated inning every 2-3 days to keep him fresh. I think K-Rod made his actual debut in the playoffs so anything is possible and really would not cost anything other than keeping him on the 40 all winter when they do not have to make that move yet.

[zambonir]

Is anyone even getting COVID anymore (that's being reported)?

[julio]

Is anyone even getting COVID anymore (that's being reported)?

I assume you mean ball players, because something like 500 people a week are still dying of COVID in the United States.

And the answer, obviously, is yes - ball players are still catching COVID. Some of them may not bother testing for COVID if they have a minor respiratory infection, but there’s no way that they’re somehow different than the population at large.

[andyb]

Players are a bit different in that they work in an environment with a much higher vaccination rate than most people. Notwithstanding the Phillies trouble getting to 85%, I imagine other team employees are well above that. And then add in the fact that they simply don't get tested any more without symptoms (which is now standard practice in most sports) and you don't get too many positive tests any more.

The taxi squad on this road trip is probably more about injury replacement than COVID replacement. Do IL placements even carry over into the postseason roster? If we put someone on that list for the Houston series because we needed fresh bodies could we then put them on the playoff roster? I legitimately don't know the answer to that question.

[phillychuck]

I assume you mean ball players, because something like 500 people a week are still dying of COVID in the United States.

To be fair, no one really knows how many people are 'dying of COVID' these days. All entering patients in hospitals are routinely and frequently tested for COVID with or without symptoms. This testing is much more comprehensive than it was even a year ago. My Father, last October, entered the hospital with lung cancer and already in hospice from the cancer. He died a few days later, and tested positive for COVID on the day he died. He had already outlived the hospice prognosis for his life expectancy due to his cancer, yet he was listed as a COVID death. According to my friends in health care, this is happening to people entering hospitals for nearly any reason, even automobile accident victims and heart attack patients. We really need to find some way to separate COVID-caused deaths from deaths with COVID.

[zambonir]

You don't need to get on your COVID high horse with me, obviously it is still everywhere and even vaccinated and boosted people can and are still getting it (including the new bivalent booster). My tongue was somewhat in cheek. I presume somewhere between 10 and 25% of all MLB players have had COVID this year. But something like 99% of them have not missed a game because of it. The symptoms are too mild for them to bother testing and I can't remember the last time a player on any team missed games because of it (obviously it happened to the Phillies once mid-season).

I thought the taxi squad was only for COVID. But even if it's not you'd still need a roster move or injury.

Postseason is still open to anyone who was in the organization by 8/31.

[andyb]

Postseason is still open to anyone who was in the organization by 8/31.

I actually just checked now and it looks like players need to serve the minimum number of IL days too to be eligible. We could not just activate Appel for instance because he has not been on the list 60 days. And we could not put someone like Thor on the IL after the double-header for a "tired arm" and then bring him back less than 15 days later. The rule does make sense but I was wondering if you could abuse this to add extra arms in the final series.

Postseason Roster Rules & Eligibility | Glossary | MLB.com

[zambonir]

ah, gotcha. I think they are in trouble if they need to be messing around like that. plus you still need 40-man space to take someone off the 60. they are just hoping have to Sosa and possibly Hand back for the actual playoffs.

[bkeich]

I wonder how often a team in contention ends the season on a 10 game road streak. I am sure it happens, but it is a very big disadvantage for the Phils.

Milwaukee ends the season with 9 home games. We actually are in trouble simply because of the 53/47 home field advantage. (Well, not completely, but it is a disadvantage, the difference is a little less than 0.6 games)

We of course have had 9 more home games than Milwaukee up until now, but it is still unfortunate.

[LoneStarPhan]

I think the original schedule had the Phillies ending with six games on the road, but the adjustments for the late start of the season resulted in the extra games on the road to end the season.

[zambonir]

yup Astros series was originally in March and Nats doubleheader shouldn't exist.

[David_Criss]

For the post season the three SPs would be: Suarez, Nola and Wheeler. Does that mean Thor, Falter and Gibson don't make the post season roster? The pen is: Alvarado, Bellati, Brogdon, Eflin, Nelson, Robertson......With Falter being a starter all this time, can he be the other lefty in the pen? Is Hand back in time? Does Guthrie or Hall get the final bench spot?

[schillingfan]

Speaking of being fair, Covid is pretty much like flu these days and people with certain premorbidities or in hospice can succumb to flu, which means an earlier death than otherwise. I don’t know how those deaths are counted. I suppose it is to be expected that this would be normal with most viruses as the mutant strains that are more infectious, but less lethal are the most likely to survive. I still get my yearly flu shot and will get my yearly Covid booster, because “why not.” Hospitals test more and still require masks because they have more vulnerable people suspect I left to catching it.

[BostonRoss]

I think most teams need four starters for the playoffs. At his point I would guess Falter is #4, but I would think one of the other two would also be on the roster as a long reliever.

[Aquapong]

When the postseason comes Thomson has to stop looking at particular roles for most guys and just look at who can get outs that day. While someone like Thor, Saurez, or, Falter may not like not starting, it’s about winning games at that point. Not egos or bonuses. Gibson only makes the postseason roster if we have no other spots and we need a guy for mop up.

[zambonir]

They don't need four starters in the first round, but they do need to keep a starter (presumably Falter) off the roster and ready to start a possible Game 1. Thor seems like a better fit than Gibson out of the pen but we can't rule out Gibson being back in the rotation if they get to the NLDS. I'd still be equally nervous counting on Falter, but the previously inconsistent Gibson seems to have fallen off the cliff completely.

And if it gets to a Game 3 and Suarez isn't perfect he's not going to get to pitch out of trouble in the third or fourth inning. They might even script for someone replacing Suarez before the third time through, if not an opener (depending on the opponent's line-up).

I still have this feeling that Thomson would rather have Munoz or Maton (assuming Sosa is back) or Guthrie as his fifth bench guy than Hall. But - there's no ghost runner in the playoffs either right? So that extra pure PH, and not having to worry about PRing for possible ghost runners, also a consideration. They could also go with Hall in the first series and worry about having a more versatile guy if there's a second.

[Austinfan]

This is done ex post by comparing expected with actual deaths.
Obviously with multiple morbidities, assigning a cause of death is arbitrary.

[Aquapong]

Can’t sleep on the Cubs, as we found out last time. They have some good young players.

[andyb]

Castellanos activated for Sands and is in the lineup tonight.