2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[zambonir]

2023 is likely not the year for major changes. Hoskins trade value isn't really higher than his value on the team and they can probably squeeze one more year out of Bohm at 3B. I still don't see Bohm as any kind of certainty though. He is not good enough against RHP (which is 75% of his ABs) and not good enough in general to be at 1B or DH. It is great he has improved (and I realize he started in a big hole) but he's still the worst fielding 3B in MLB by DRS.

He's probably more valuable than Hoskins just for being younger, cheaper/controllable, and theoretically at a premium position with a still-unknown ceiling. Of course they tried really hard to trade him last year; would he actually fetch a mid-rotation starter, closer or a couple of really good prospects this time, if they did want to make a big move?

Too bad Hall can't play 3B too.

If they don't intend to exceed the CBT and face a repeater tax they can't pick up Segura's option. If they don't care, then hey, it's only money.

I assume Nola doesn't want an extension; we'll find out soon enough.

[flyers19rw]

I think that Hoskins will get moved over the winter. He goes to FA after the '23 season. It doesn't look like it will extend him. Best to deal him before then.
Actually my candidate to take over 1B would be Schwarber. At one time he had been a C/1B. This would get him to a position that he could handle and out of the OF where he isn't the greatest player.
The Segura thing is a tough decision. He may decline but then again he takes good care of himself. Having his arm at 2B is an asset. With Stott settling in as a MLB shortstop, the need to add there is not imminent. It might be better to use the cash on a SP. Wheeler, Nola, Suarez and then another decent SP takes the pressure off of jumping the young guys to the show.

[zambonir]

Segura is not the one who gets to decline, that's up to the Phillies. And it's still a fool's game to pay him like he's the exception to aging if you don't have to. He could end up having a season like 2019 (though by his own admission he was not taking care of himself at all then) or he could miss two months with another injury (this year was bad luck, granted, but older players also heal more slowly and recover less convincingly).

Hoskins just doesn't have much trade value. He's a RH DH due for a big salary bump who is about to hit free agency. His bat plus the comp pick is probably worth more to the Phillies than any trade return, unless you see the primary value of the trade as simply freeing up the $ and playing time. You can certainly make the case, though

Castellanos/Hall would make more sense at 1B as Schwarber is still probably a better LF than Castellanos and can't platoon with Hall at 1B or DH.

I also think if Harper is going to end up missing a couple of months they probably have to keep Hoskins.

My guess is our shadow GM (Harper) will still get the guy he wants (Turner), or else our real GM (well, President of Baseball) will convince him Bogaerts is the guy. Just a question of where they actually play.

[andyb]

I am not sure it matters that much if Hoskins has trade value. The larger question is whether they have better uses for his anticipated salary. There is definitely a case to move him because it can lead to either Schwarber or Castellanos playing more 1B (with a little Hall in there as well). That depends a bit on Harper playing the OF again of course. We are still a year away most likely for considering whether Rojas might contend for playing time.

I just have no idea if they would make s serious play for Turner or Boegarts. Hoskins' salary might be needed if they do (and add/resign one midlevel starter to replace either Gibson or Eflin).

[zambonir]

I think that's basically true but his production and, in some ways, his star power (okay, not star, but a beloved and longest-serving homegrown player) makes it hard to just give him up for nothing. It would be perceived as cheap if it's to help get back under the CBT with no decent return. Even though they might do just as well to take 2-3 lower level lottery tickets for him as to expect a useful major league piece or good prospect.

The Rays or Dodgers make that deal no problem. I don't know that the Phillies do.

It's either a big FA SS or a bigger FA pitcher, IMO. If you are willing to take your chances on Falter while also awaiting Painter you probably don't need the latter.

[andyb]

I actually don't think Dombrowski cares much about what the public thinks here. Ownership yes, but the public no. If moving Hoskins for a couple of lottery tickets helps us get Turner the public sentiment will be just fine.

[Aquapong]

Looking at Bohm and Schwarbs limited time at 1b, there’s no guarantee either will be better defensively than Hoskins.

[andyb]

They probably won't. I guess Bohm has the tools to be better but until he can put up an 800 OPS (and he is not close to that this year) I just don't see Bohm as a fulltime 1B. Hall is probably not any better defensively either.

Moving Hoskins is more about clearing a lineup spot so we can find another OF that is actually good defensively. Schwarber at 1B, Castellanos at DH, and someone like Rojas in the OF pushing Marsh to a corner. Marsh and Rojas of course need to hit in that scenario which is also far from given.

[flyers19rw]

Hoskins is one of the, if not the worst, Phillies first baseman in a long time. I'm going back to Pancho Herrera and Ed Bouche. It costs the defense in a huge way. It's not only the balls that he can't field that are hit to him, it's the throws that he can't handle as well. That puts a stress on the rest of the IF knowing that they almost have to make the perfect throw to him for the out. A weak fielding first baseman is one of the hallmarks of a bad defensive team.
Schwarber probably would not be a gem at first base. However he has played it in college and some games in the show. Give him the glove and allow him to work on it, and he probably would be fine. The additional plus from that move is that it gets him out of the outfield where his limited range is an issue.
What the organization would choose to do with the money saved by moving out Hoskins is a separate thing but the topic needs to be explored. With all of the possible players that the club has committed to salary wise that can play first base, it makes little sense to string along Hoskins for another season.

[andyb]

Sounds like it is possible Castellanos will be back Sunday or Monday without a minor league rehab. Remember Lehigh Valley is up in Syracuse Monday so Sunday would be the only possible rehab day.

Matt Gelb: Nick Castellanos (oblique) hit against the... - The Athletic

[julio]

Hoskins is also the Phils’ player rep. I’m not sure how much stock one should put on “clubhouse presence,” atmosphere, etc., but to the extent it matters, moving Rhys is not likely to sit particularly well in the clubhouse.

[schillingfan]

Julio, Impossible to know, but a lot of the body language of the team suggests that he is the heart and soul of the clubhouse. His defense is bad, but it’s not for lack of trying. He just seems the classic good guy, try hard, really cares about winning kind of guy that fans can relate too. He’s also my favorite Philliie. I can understand that he may need to go, but hate to see it happen.

[zambonir]

I think to all these points, including Andy's, it's possible that Middleton is the one who might be reluctant to part ways with Rhys. But if you're not going to extend him - and if Boras isn't going to negotiate before he reaches free agency - all the sentiment and clubhouse chemistry in the world doesn't really matter in the end.

If Dombrowski wasn't here I'd actually worry that Middleton and Boras might make a deal on their own.

And no, there won't be a better player at 1B next season, but you'd be upgrading the OF and DH spots in incremental ways, with 1B as a wash.

Of course 2022 Castellanos is also not a good enough bat to play 1B. I think a Bohm/Hall platoon is probably your best 1B but then of course you need to fill 3B.

[xogfog]

I want to keep Hoskins, I understand his deficiencies, but he is an important member of this team. I wouldn't worry about paying him because over the next couple of years 3/5 of the pitching staff is going to be on rookie deals. I'd rather let Segura go and let Maton platoon with Vierling or even Kingory at 2B.

[Aquapong]

I think Kingery is out of the picture now.

[zambonir]

The right answer might be to extend him but only if both sides give a little. 4-5 year deal including 2023 where the extra year helps lower the AAV in additon to giving him more guaranteed money. But it just doesn't seem like that is where things are headed, and the team also had too many DH types who can't be moved as easily, so you gotta at least consider getting ahead of it.

Kingery will come to spring training unless they trade or release him so he can start fresh. But no reason not to give him a look really.

[EDmuch]

Hoskins numbers look pretty good compared to Matt Olson.

[EDmuch]

I would place Hoskins easily within the top 10 first basemen in MLB.

[zambonir]

And yet, Rhys's defense is bad enough that there's not really that big a gap, and Olson's a year younger and adjusting to a new team and league.

But the real problem with that comparison, if you buy it, is that means Rhys deserves an eight-year $168 million deal.

I would place Hoskins easily within the top 10 first basemen in MLB.

He is at the plate (actually 10th in OPS) I think he drops to the middle of the pack when you count the glove (he's 14th in WAR). But do you pay the 10th-best 1B $20 million a year?

The real problem here is Castellanos. Castellanos and Rhys on the same team doesn't make sense and Rhys is the homegrown guy we love, but Nick was the guy our President loves.

[bkeich]

Well, that and Castellanos' contract is an albatross until he can have a season with much better offensive stats. He came around in the 2nd half, but getting hurt just puts him back in the albatross category.

At the moment Hoskjns has a little trade value and Nick has significantly negative value.