2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[Austinfan]

I suspect it'll be Guthrie, he's hitting well, and he can play all over the field.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Phillies struggles are a big mystery. It's 50% strength of schedule and 50% injuries. With better health they might be more competitive against the best teams, but so it goes. The bullpen's struggles are still directly related to both the loss of Knebel and Seranthony (putting more pressure on the others in addition to the rough return of Seranthony himself) and the rotation's own struggles. The line-up has never not been missing two key players and Harper is not yet himself.

They're going to make the playoffs, and maybe with health and luck they'll do better in October than they have in these last five games. Maybe they'll even do better over these next four. But at least we get to ride the ride. And I still welcome the 6th seed over the 5th.

Here’s 12 thoughts on a flagging playoff push as the Phillies try to ‘stay in...

1. Interim manager Rob Thomson pushes back on the Phillies-can’t-beat-good-teams narrative, citing their victorious season series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals. The facts remain: Against winning teams, they were 5-11 since the All-Star break, 16-17 under Thomson, and 29-34 overall, with eight of the last 15 games coming against playoff-bound clubs.

2. Nobody is asking the Phillies to apologize for beating up on the NL’s four weakest teams, but it’s hard to ignore that they are 37-11 against Washington, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati and 43-56 against everyone else.

Phillies keep making postseason berth more difficult, but the math is still on...

The Phillies, right now, are a postseason team by default. The National League must send six teams to the tournament. The sixth-best team was always going to be a good — not great — team. But the Phillies have lost five straight games. They have lost 16 of their last 20 games against teams with winning records, since July 10. They are neither good nor great in their current form.

[andyb]

Maybe the manager does make a difference?

Rosenthal: OK, Phillies fans, I will say it — I was wrong!

[zambonir]

The thing is, we'll never really know. Clearly there was a vibe shift (sorry). And he did some tangible things differently than Girardi with the bullpen. His embrace of younger players wasn't truly by choice but I think it's safe to say Girardi would have made different choices (leaning on the AAAA players more). Maybe Didi doesn't get released, even.

But at the same time, a lot of what happened under Thomson might have still happened under Girardi - the softening schedule, Ranger rounding into form, the deadline moves, better depth throughout. And when this team has played the Mets and Braves recently they've still looked like the team from May.

The craziest thing about the season IMO is that the team probably played its best baseball - albeit against mostly bad teams - without Harper and Segura. Segura was already on the IL before Thomson took over, even.

[andyb]

The move to Stott was the biggest one that Girardi might not have made (or made as soon). I think that really sent a message that if the young players played well they would actually play.

Though I kind of wish Sosa was healthy now because Stott has made a couple of lazy errors this week that it would probably be healthy for him to watch a game or two against a tough lefty.

[zambonir]

Sosa is an underrated loss for sure.

Hopefully they can win a couple of games this weekend (as well as in Chicago) and make the Nats series relatively low pressure (with the actual clinching there at some point).

The weird thing is that by all accounts Girardi pushed to break spring training with both Stott and Bohm. But then he couldn't really manage it, and even favored Camargo some.

[Austinfan]

Whatever happens, this is the season where they finally turned the corner, producing and relying on young players instead of another group of retreads.

Playiing in a playoff race has to be good for guys like Bohm, Scott, Marsh, Vierling, Maton, Sosa, Stubbs, Ranger, Falter, SD, Brogdon, et al. These are the guys likely to be around for a few seasons.

Phillies are finally moving to a sustainable model, carried by young players with a few key veterans obtained in free agency, instead of trying to build an entire roster with free agents like the last few seasons.

[allentown]

I'd say 'started to turn the corner'. They have stepped beyond the recent past terrible of even needing FA to build the bench and pen, but we still fall waaay short in producing home-grown plus players and stars. At this point we have only one (Nola) who fits that category. When healthy, you can add Seranthony to that list. It's a start, but still very far from what is needed. We have a real chance to have a majority home-grown rotation by the end of next season, which will be a big plus if it comes to fruition. But... we do not have a plus or star homegrown position player on the immediate horizon (and Hoskins is falling out of that category and likely gone after next season), although given the new limit on pick-off moves, it's possible that Rojas can meet that definition with a nudge up in hitting. High hopes for Lee, although he's farther away. Beyond that, I see useful bench players until we get down to the low minors and this year's draft.

[zambonir]

I am somewhat less convinced by this. The general approach and signs of life/a better future, for sure. But a lot of people are trying to compare this to 2007 and there is just not a core of young - or even late 20something - players who are anywhere near that good. Half of the guys on your list are still bench players or relievers (who can be injured or have a down year anytime - which both Seranthony and Brogdon have done already) and Bohm is still a question mark. Meanwhile JT, Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto, Schwarber and Castellanos are a declining core, with Nola and Hoskins heading into their final seasons potentially. Odds are if we see Andrew Painter celebrating a World Series on the mound it won't be with too many starters from this year's team other than Harper, but it's also not still clear where the rest of the position players might be coming from.

[allentown]

All of this is a reason the Phillies have to be strong contenders (actually need to spend the $ to win the bidding) for one of the two top Japanese players being posted this coming year.

[andyb]

I think it is good they will play marginal AAAA younger players as opposed to veterans, but it is hard to see how much of a difference that has made. In particular the young pitching has not really been that great other than the normal churn of finding veterans having decent years.

It is great that a Vierling takes the place of a veteran OF that might have cost a few million dollars. It is just not really a difference-maker.

[andyb]

two top Japanese players being posted this coming year

The two really good ones are at least 3-5 years away. Japanese players still need to be 25 to get big contracts. Ohtani was the exception to take the minimal international pool deal. Most wait till they are 25 and then are posted (because Japanese free agency does not kick in till they are 28-30).

[Austinfan]

There is no upside in a bench and minor starters who are 30+.

I don't know what the upside of the current group of young players, but my suspicion is that a number have more than we think, COVID really screwed up development (players losing up to a season of minor league PA) of a lot of these players, and a few have been rushed.

You don't need them to become 4-5 WAR players, if a Maton/Guthrie platoon at 2B next year got you 2 WAR for $2M, that's a lot better than paying $15M to Segura. Stott saves you $15M over Didi. Marsh/Vierling over Herrera. And guys like Stott and Marsh definitely have a lot of upside. Maton may as well, I like his stroke. Guthrie is a surprise to me, more patient at the plate than I expected.

It's building a critical mass of these guys to supplant the high priced veterans, and avoid going on the market and spending $10M for a mediocre IF or 5th starter or $5M for a 6-7th inning guy. What has been killing this team is the cap constraints of paying $50+M each year for players who are replacement level or barely above because they had zero organizational depth.

[andyb]

Nobody is arguing against the value of younger bench players but you seem to think we are. They are just not that important in the larger scheme of things. The one advantage you overlook with vets is that they sometimes do not need to play every day.

But the larger point is these bench players are not that good. They can be fine 1 WAR replacement players. Maybe you can even cobble a platoon together (though there is a strong chance someone like Maton or Guthrie might be quickly overexposed). But they also don't move the needle much like stars do (i.e. Wheeler and Nola and Harper and Schwarber and Dominguez).

You seem to think we are arguing for the organization to not try to develop young players. All we are saying is that the young players are nowhere near as good as you think they are. Not sure Stott will ever be more than a 2-3 WAR player in his best years for instance.

[Austinfan]

For every star who is an instant success, there are 2-3 players who develop over time.
I've watched these players all year, and you can see they have the potential to be more than bench players.

Heck, Guthrie keeps surprising me (and probably the Phillies brass) by both hitting but also showing more plate discipline than I would have expected - to go with his defense at various positions.

There's a big difference between a bench player you rarely play and playing someonebecause he can fill in more than capably at various positions - and the Phillies seem to be developing some of the later, Maton, Guthrie, Vierling - they're what they tried to make Kingery to be.

The only kid who isn't positive WAR is Vierling, mostly a combination of plate struggles and playing out of position in CF, but he's hitting better and Marsh allows him to play corner OF.

Stott needs to hit better, but his second half improvement and a BABIP of .269 suggests there's lots of upside. He was rushed and it shows, but he's settled in and his defense is better than expected

But Maton is the kid I'd bet on to breakout, his short but powerful stroke and plate discipline suggest that with enough PA he could be a very good hitter.

[andyb]

Maton, Guthrie, Vierling - they're what they tried to make Kingery to be.

An inexpensive utility player with small positive WAR contributions? These players are just not that valuable. It is great that we can develop our own and save a tiny bit of money. But they are not really moving the needle much in making the team better. Small sample sizes will also fade over time.

[Jazzhead]

I think the big breakouts this year have been Bohm, who lately has been fielding great and seems to hit nothing but line drives, and Stott, who is shaping up to be an excellent middle infielder with pop. A big decision will be whether to just play Stott at second and sign one of the marquee free agent shortstops, or exercise the option to keep Segura, use Stott at short, and direct the bucks to a pitcher or other position of need.

I think the club is on the cusp of greatness for the next couple of years, assuming that the outfield/DH quartet of Schwarber, Marsh, Castellanos and Harper play up to expectations. Obviously, Castellanos is the one who hasn't, and his contract may have been a mistake, but he could come roaring back especially if he unloads Ben Simmons' house of Bad Karma. The team's positional flexibility has been hurt by Harper's inability to play in the field; I think it's telling that we played our best ball of the season when Harper was out and folks could be rotated in and out of the DH slot (including the amazing Long Ball Hall who replicated Harper's slugging).

[Austinfan]

A big question will be to extend or trade Hoskins, Hall is a better fielder at 1B, but is a platoon hitter, but that would open 1B for Castellanos or Realmoto (if they want to limit his games at catcher) against RH pitching and allow Vierling/Guthrie to play RF (much better defense). Eventually, when Harper is healthy, Schwarber needs to DH full-time, he's a terrible OF.

I don't see them going for another mega-contract, Maton/Guthrie/Sosa could probably give you similar production to an aging Segura (as Didi showed, don't hang on too long). They also have to upgrade Thor/Gibson, decide to extend Nola, and revamp the bullpen to some extent. It's the pitching that has hurt them down the stretch. The kids are coming, but it may be too much to expect an impact in 2023.

Next year we probably see Muzzioti, Rojas, De La Cruz and Ortiz in Lehigh to start the season.

[Aquapong]

I think Segura will be gone next season. There’s no reason to pay him the amount of his option. I believe some combo of Stott, Maton, Sosa, et al can duplicate his output for far less and we can use that money elsewhere.

Hoskins is a harder decision. He’s streaky as a hitter less than ideal defensively. I’m not sure moving Bohm there would be ideal either as a line drive hitter isn’t a traditional 1B bat. However I think he could duplicate the War output of Hoskins, just in a different way. Then we create a hole at 3b however. In the end, we’ll probably keep him around another year.

The easiest way to improve the team is to nab one of the high profile SS’s that will be available. With Segura, Eflin, Knebel, Gibson, Hand, Robertson, and Thor coming off the books, we have the money. We will also need probably one short term SP and I wouldn’t mind a multi year SP since Nola will be a FA after next season. We will need a few bp arms as well. I wonder how Eflin would do switching to the bp honestly.

[Patchmk88]

Also according to data, Hoskins is among the league leaders in outs recorded hitting into the shift (or something along those lines). He (and Schwarber) may see some benefits due to the shift rules next year.