2022 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion Part 2

[Aquapong]

We didn’t trade O’Hoppe for Marsh to only get one year.

[zambonir]

Well, they didn't give Scott Kingery that contract or draft Adam Haseley and Mickey Moniak to only get one year either. If they can find his bat he will be a productive player for a long time, and in a line-up where Jean Segura hits 8 they can also carry him for a season or two, but if he stays exactly what he is now he'll eventually be a platoon/bench player.

[RolenRules]

Yes, and last year Marsh OPS was .926 in Angel's minor league system before being called up, so there might actually be a bat to find.

By comparison, Muzziotti at age 23 this year had an OPS of .744 before being put on the 60 day IL.

Obviously as Phillies Phans we want all our young players to succeed.

[Aquapong]

The Diamondbacks are calling up Corbin Carroll in time for our series with him. He’ll be an interesting kid to watch.

[allentown]

AF didn't say to just keep Marsh for the tail-end of this season. He's minuscule sample size at the moment, but if he can't OPS higher than his current .541 next season, then it should be his last season in Philly, other than perhaps being a 5th OF. In that case, perhaps we shouldn't have traded O'Hoppe for Marsh. It was a pressing short-term need and a gamble.

[allentown]

Just no! It's bad to torture stats like this. Marsh actually had an OPS of .832in 94 AB in AAA. Not bat, but almost 100 points less than you quoted. You aren't actually going to make your argument based upon adding in his 14 AB in rookie ball are you? Really, you think rookie ball stats at age 23 mean something about MLB performance. His career MLB OPS is .646. If he matches that and is excellent in CF, that's probably ok.

[RolenRules]

OK sorry and thanx for the clarification. I did not have a breakout of his stats at the various minor league levels.

[Sabin]

OK sorry and thanx for the clarification. I did not have a breakout of his stats at the various minor league levels.

No need to apologize for making an otherwise well-intentioned argument, even if countered with superior evidence or data. It's how we learn. Some of the more veteran members here come off a little over the top at times. You're good.

[zambonir]

The MLBPA is finally stepping up. (This could get ugly - teams will try hard to get their prospects to vote no.)

BREAKING: Minor Leaguers have been sent a card to vote on designating the MLBPA as their collective bargaining representative

More to come at https://t.co/9R0lQQcyRF pic.twitter.com/yhaNDfTlBM

— Joon Lee ( @joonlee ) August 29, 2022

[Austinfan]

Problem for Marsh is Rojas is starting to look like he could be exceptional, he's hitting better at Reading than Jersey Shore, RC+ of 90 v 67. However, a few reasons to think he can get much better, his BABIP is .289, which is very low for a guy with exceptional speed, his K rate has gone from 19.8% (A ball), to 18.8% (A+) to 16.8% (AA).

Here's the kicker, 54 SB, 3 CS. Wow!

The key is keeping the K rate down and improving his plate discipline as he develops more power the next couple years. If you figure he starts in Reading and finishes in Lehigh, he could be pushing to start as early as 2024.

[Aquapong]

If they both perform, it would be a good problem to have. We could mix and match the outfield each game. Schwarber and Castellanos could split LF duties and these two and Harper CF and RF.

[andyb]

Nobody is saying Rojas is not a very good prospect. There are just major questions with the bat. The Phillies got Marsh with the expectation to play 5 years. Of course there are questions about Marsh's bat too but he is farther advanced and probably got promoted to the majors a bit early after the pandemic cost him a year of development.

If either takes the next step then great. They'll push the other or a corner outfielder out of a job. Or be trade bait. But Marsh is the CF now. He had solid BB rates in the minors. Just needs to figure that out at the major league level and prove he does not need a platoon partner like Vierling.

[Austinfan]

My point was simply that Marsh and Vierling will get a full season to prove themselves, Marsh is the better defensive player but Vierling should improve somewhat with experience, his timed speed is similar. Both were rushed to the majors and need work offensively.

However, if Rojas keeps progressing, his upside is much higher than those two. So if they don't make a big jump next year the bench or trade bait may be their fate in 2024.

[andyb]

After looking a lot at Vierling this year he is just an average outfielder. His jumps on balls in center are mediocre and that may be something that can't be completely fixed. There are valid reasons he was pushed into mostly corner outfield play in the minors by multiple other outfielders. He is playable in center. Just not that good. The speed and arm fit much better in the corners.

Marsh has to show he can hit, but he was brought here to play. The Phillies figured a 625 OPS with good defense was playable now compared to what they had (basically the same OPS without good defense). He'll need to get in the 700-750 OPS range to be a regular. You don't trade a really good prospect in O'Hoppe if you don't think he can do that. None of that means they dislike Rojas. They just see Marsh as having better odds of success than Rojas. A classic higher floor, lower ceiling comparison (though Marsh probably does have a pretty good ceiling if he could ever hit 15-20 HRs). Marsh will get lots of chances to prove himself because the floor is playable with our offense. Vierling is probably fighting for his bench job next year unless he hits better.

[zambonir]

"If Marsh doesn't get better he will lose his job to Rojas" is, as already said, a good problem. A real problem is, "Marsh doesn't get better and Rojas doesn't pan out." Or, "Marsh gets good enough that they trade Rojas and then Rojas is the much better player after that."

Given the state of our OF/DH types it is not impossible they are in the same OF by 2024 as well.

[Austinfan]

Marsh and Vierling will handle CF in 2023, if Marsh can handle LH pitchers he'll be full-time, otherwise they'll platoon. After that he's going to have to be more than no hit/good defense to keep the job.

From their perspective, O'Hoppe was never going to increase his value with JT in place, plus Stubbs has surprised as a good hit LH catcher. With Sands and Marchan already entrenched in AAA ball, they strengthened the team this year and next, and if Rojas emerges, even a slight improvement in Marsh's hitting would make him solid trade bait. Get him to .700 OPS with his defense and suitors will line up to offer real value.

Rojas isn't a sure thing, but he's a potential upgrade in 2024, and the A ball OFs should be pushing in 2025-26.
So a black hole (due to the flops of Haseley and Moniak) is becoming a strength, and since all these candidates have plus plus speed, they can compensate for corner OFs with limited range.

[andyb]

I think Vierling is 50-50 at best to have a job next year. They certainly will bring in competition and give Marsh every opportunity to win the full time job.

And saying O'Hoppe was never going to increase his value because of JT is simply not true. A top catching prospect has lots and lots of trade value. If O'Hoppe succeeds we can cue up the debate of whether the Phillies should have waited for a better trade opportunity. What they did was odd with Marsh. They know he is not that good now but must like him as much long term as O'Hoppe. O'Hoppe had and has lots of value. We'll have to check back in a decade to see if this was a good trade or not.

[zambonir]

Marsh was a good compromise trade - better short-term answers would have been rentals and possibly even more expensive and better long-term answers definitely would have been more expensive. They filled a short-term need that also had long-term upside (and a low salary). Obviously if Marsh flops, they missed out on trading their chip for something better.

And yeah after the way this season has gone I don't think we can assume anything next year in terms of who is on the bench (to say nothing of a few starting spots). Even if pitching is more in flux.

[Austinfan]

O'Hoppe has value, but there were still a lot of questions whether he projected as a starter at the ML level. On a pure value play, O'Hoppe > Marsh, but in terms of team needs and the depth chart, Marsh has more short-term value.

And he'd been in Lehigh next year, Stubbs as a LH bat makes more sense as the backup catcher on a playoff team.

Marsh has more value to this team this year and next season, after that, O'Hoppe had more upside, but probably wasn't going to start until 2026 (if they don't extend JT). By that time, Perez might be ready.

I think the play of Stubbs and Sands made O'Hoppe expendable, they've both exceeded expectations, and the Phillies have always like Marchan.

[andyb]

The reality of the Phillies needing to trade O'Hoppe is completely independent of his trade value. He was projected as a starter pretty universally. He'll be up midseason next year if all goes well.

Marsh does have more short term value obviously because he was a couple of years older. But it is not like he has a lot of short team value because he is not that good yet. He was a unique fit for Philly because our CFs were terrible. That does not make him good though. His short term value was the least important part of the trade. They could have figured out something like Jackie Bradley if they only cared about this year and did not want to trade prospects.