2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Best case he's Kevin Stocker, worst case he goes back to Allentown when he cools. But his "emergence" also opens another 40-man spot if needed (should they DFA Torreyes at any point). If his future is still bench player he can just step into the role, he doesn't need ABs in Allentown.

I'm not sure the pitching is that much worse than expected. Moore is, yes, but they knew it was possible - even likely - that only one of those guys would work out. If there's a list of expected WAR in the GM's office I'm sure it included getting 0.5-1.0 from the 6th starter and then upgrading in July.

Whereas I think the defense is a much bigger concern than expected. Nobody expected it to be good and nobody expected Gold Glove work at SS or CF, but they didn't expect Didi to be an active negative. Nor Cutch.

Either way, the offense and bullpen needs to be able to win some of those starts. Bats couldn't do it this weekend, and 'pen is a bit thin. Should have had it Friday though.

[David_Criss]

Lets not get to excited and think Maton is the CF solution. In fact, please don't screw with him and try and make him one, just because they can't find one out of Moniak, Hasley, Herrera, Kingery and Quinn. Maton has always played a year ahead in his brief minor career. He is fast and athletic, but I don't get the put him anywhere and let him learn at the highest level there is mentality.

At this point, put Velasquez in center and Didi in left if that is the thinking. I'm joking here.

It isn't just centerfield. Didi has been awful at SS as has McCutchen in left. Hoskins isn't exactly a gold glove winner at 1B, either. There have been a lot of defensive weaknesses exposed, so why move Maton where he is a positive glove?

Maton should be allowed to do what he does best and be the steady glove and bat at SS or 2B.

[BostonRoss]

If the Phillies are contending this season (while they’ve been playing poorly the last couple of week, they are a game out of first place), they should play whoever is the best option in CF. If that is Maton at some point, so be it. If someone else emerges, then great.

[zambonir]

Maton should not be a serious option in CF, but you can't rule it out either. When Segura comes back and Kingery returns to Allentown he will merely be replacing Torreyes, which means very few starts, and the success he is having right now probably won't continue as a lightly-used PH. If he's still hot he needs to keep playing, wherever. And if it turns out Maton is the player who least needs to be in AAA between himself, Kingery and Moniak, all the more reason.

I also don't buy the notion that position switching is the reason some of these players haven't worked out. Doing whatever you can to get a rising young player in the line-up is hardly new. And if Kingery fails I don't think it's going to be because the Phillies tried to make him into Chris Taylor, but, rather, that Chris Taylor is better. And if the failure is on the Phillies it's because they're so bad at development in general, not because the multi-tool philosophy is invalid.

Alas it's just as likely he cools off in two weeks and goes back to LV himself, because Joe likes Torreyes and we don't need a third LHB on the bench.

[andyb]

Alvarado supposed to be back tonight, so it appears he did not have COVID which would have put him out longer. Falter probably gets sent down, which is to be expected after getting 1 IP out of him yesterday. He seemed Cole Irvin part two yesterday. Not enough velocity to be great if his location and command are not close to perfect. Hopefully he can get back in that 93-94 range over time.

[David_Criss]

Let Maton learn CF at AAA if that is his future. At this point, we need to thank God above that this team is somehow in second place and 1 game out of first after Colorado and the San Fran series) When Segura returns if Maton is not going to play everyday at SS, then he needs to be playing everyday at AAA.

In other thoughts - how much longer does McCutchen lead off and play everyday? I'm ready to see Realmuto and Maton bat first and second.

[andyb]

Segura leading off is the move that probably makes the most sense if they demote Cutch (though Cutch still has a 300 OBP so it has not quite been the disaster his batting average implies).

There is no easy solution if Cutch is not going to recover to 90% of what he was last year. I think there is still a strong chance he might (think 750 OPS, not 800), but he is also at the age where things can fall apart quickly. Just not sure Miller or Joyce or Maton would really be that much better.

[David_Criss]

I was thinking now before Segura comes back just to get something going.

[andyb]

I'd definitely get Miller in there more (not sure Joyce adds much), but in general I am waiting a couple of weeks for major switches with the whole division struggling. We are one game out in second place. It looks ugly, but so does everybody at this point.

[zambonir]

He likes Joyce as a lead-off hitter though.

There's something to be said for just sticking with Cutch when the other options aren't great. Obviously there's a reluctance to move Harper, JT or Hoskins (plus you don't want to rely on Hoskins as a runner).

Even though you don't want your worst hitter leading off, I could also see having Quinn do it when he starts. Challenge him to just get on base.

PItcher hitting eight might not be the worst idea on a couple of days either.

[andyb]

Which is all why there is really no good leadoff solution at the moment, especially if Segura is out.

In other tweaks I might also slide Bohm down a spot or two. He just is not hitting consistently and they should probably take some pressure off him being in the middle of the lineup.

[zambonir]

Herrera's coming.

The Phillies optioned Spencer Howard, Mickey Moniak, and Bailey Falter to the minors to make room for Odubel Herrera, Jose Alvarado, and Matt Moore.

— Matt Breen ( @matt_breen ) April 26, 2021

[David_Criss]

Moore is back.....
Tonight Hererra starting in center and Miller starting and leading off in left.

[andyb]

I guess that is the right move. Of course his defense could be like this on Sunday:
https://twitter.com/RailRidersTT/status/1386055429189476353

[David_Criss]

Moniak looked a little over his head, but has a lot of promise. Hopefully he has a great year playing everyday at AAA. Howard adn Falter need to be starting every 5th day. It will be interesting to see how long before Moore and/or Anderson move to the pen in favor of VV/Falter/Howard/Suarez/Medina/trade/signing

[andyb]

I imagine Moore has a pretty short leash and it is probably not impossible he could work out of the bullpen even now. Probably 50-50 versus Velasquez as to who you want to start at the moment though being a LHP is an advantage for Moore.

Herrera fits on the 40-man roster with the Haseley and/or Muzziotti slots. Note that Jim at PhuturePhillies had noted that Muzziotti's visa issues might not be resolved until July. Not even sure he is in Clearwater yet.

[zambonir]

Are we even sure Moore is ready to start Wednesday? I guess he'd have to be or they wouldn't have made the move. I suppose with COVID once MLB clears you the player has to be re-activated but I would think there'd be some rehab component allowed if necessary.

Of course every time he starts it is de facto a tandem, so just let VV prepare regardless.

Howard isn't starting every fifth day DC, he's a 2-3 inning pitcher regardless of where he is or in what role. The only question is whether they end up getting some major league starts out of him or if he spends all of July-September in the pen. We may yet see Falter make a start before Howard (the Athletic article today said he's the 7th option, i.e. ahead of Medina and the others in LV. Howard included).

I think Anderson will be okay. It's a derby to see which one of the three (including Vince) might actually still be pitching for you in July. Trading for a someone who is better than all of them is inevitable, but not possible yet.

(I'm seeing some tweets which say they now intend to get Howard stretched out, is that the case? Not necessarily the wrong move, if the story ends with him doing well in AAA and then making 15 starts for the Phillies that's still not nothing, so long as they can still get through September.)

[andyb]

Moore and Alvarado were both throwing into a net when they were out. Not the same as throwing to a catcher of course, but it clearly indicates they did not get sick. I think Girardi's comments were more hesitant about Moore simply because he has not been pitching well. Moore did pitch out of the bullpen in 2018, though mostly because he was truly awful as a starter that year (8.02 ERA in 12 starts, 5.36 ERA in 27 relief appearances).

Girardi probably will give Moore the start a few more times but probably safe to assume VV is the tandem behind him with a quick trigger.

[bkox]

Matt Moore has rejoined the team, but Vince Velasquez is expected to start in his place Wednesday. Spencer Howard will be stretched out more in Allentown. He could start in an opener-type role this season.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) April 26, 2021

[BostonRoss]

Maton should not be a serious option in CF, but you can't rule it out either. When Segura comes back and Kingery returns to Allentown he will merely be replacing Torreyes, which means very few starts, and the success he is having right now probably won't continue as a lightly-used PH. If he's still hot he needs to keep playing, wherever. And if it turns out Maton is the player who least needs to be in AAA between himself, Kingery and Moniak, all the more reason.

I also don't buy the notion that position switching is the reason some of these players haven't worked out. Doing whatever you can to get a rising young player in the line-up is hardly new. And if Kingery fails I don't think it's going to be because the Phillies tried to make him into Chris Taylor, but, rather, that Chris Taylor is better. And if the failure is on the Phillies it's because they're so bad at development in general, not because the multi-tool philosophy is invalid.

Alas it's just as likely he cools off in two weeks and goes back to LV himself, because Joe likes Torreyes and we don't need a third LHB on the bench.

I agree with all of that. I am not thinking Maton is a longer term CF solution, but he may be the best we have (the bar is set quite low). Of course, I wrote my original message before Herrera was recalled; so it makes sense to use Odubel first.

I never understood why people would assume that Kingery's problems were related to his defensive switches. As you note, Chris Taylor (and several other Dodgers--Hernandez, Muncy, ...) seem not to have been affected adversely. It's possible he just was never going to be that good, but I would like to believe that he has started doing some things very wrong and can correct them (I hope the Phillies have the coaches who can help him).