2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[bkox]

Hoskins and Eflin are probably playing themselves into $8 million deals instead of $10 million plus.

Hoskins BA makes it look likes hes had a bad year... but he really hasnt. 5th in the NL in HRs, 8th in RBIs, 5th in doubles, 11th in total bases, 9th in ISO, 6th highest in barrel percentage

And among NL first baseman he is 1st in doubles, 2nd in HRs, 1st in XBH, 2nd in Total Bases, 3rd in SLG

Rhys has actually had a really good season. 802 OPS in April. 847 OPS in May, 1.047 OPS in July. June's swoon (.582 OPS) makes his season look not as good as it really is. Hes 4th on the team in WAR among hitters at both fangraphs and BBREF

[zambonir]

Rhys has been good, but weird. He's still a defensive liability and it's not like his overall power (that is, SLG) has improved with the decline in OBP. And, again, if you're wanting to change the culture of the team (and also part with someone who has relatively clean trade value) you have to look at him, especially with the DH coming.

Problem is you also can't be sure that moving Bohm to 1B is the right move.

[bkox]

The Culture of the team thing.. we dont really know who is what.. Honestly Archie Bradley looks to be like one of the leaders.. he started the homer hat.. he wears hawaiian shirts.. other players start... etc

I would assume Harper is the main culture of the team. We cant purge everyone.

[zambonir]

Absolutely can't purge everyone, but you can change up one or two vets, and if you assume four of them are immovable (Bryce, JT, Nola, Wheeler) there's only three other choices (four if you count Cutch).

If the problem is coming more from the bullpen, well, those guys will all be gone.

But I'm not just talking about the COVID per se. It doesn't matter who is pushing the anti-vax stuff, what matters is there's not enough leadership in the clubhouse to counter it, and that means there's not enough leadership period.

[Jeff05]

zambonir, surely, six leaders (Harper, Realmuto, Nola, Wheeler, McCutchen and Giradi) are sufficient for a squad this size. I don't think the Phillies need more leaders; rather, the Phillies need players who behave responsibly. Of course, a player can be perceived as a leader AND still be an irresponsible prat. At the moment, I fear that the Club's concept of team leadership is premised as much upon the size of players' contracts and performance, as it is upon their conduct on and off the the field.

Frankly, if Cutch is a great fella, a leader and fully vaccinated, then why should he be expected to continue to work in a seriously unhealthy environment. As much as I'd like to see him continue performing at this level for the Phillies, I first want management to purge every player who refuses to get vaccinated. Mind you, other clubs may be reluctant to admit "an irresponsible prat" into their squads, no matter how good or how much of a contract the Phillies are prepared to cover.

Perhaps management can't immediately trade all the anti-vaxxers; however, all five players listed above must be vaccinated. Or, they sit it out. A chat with their agents may be necessary. Middleton must then make clear that players will only be retained on the 40-man roster for next season, if they are vaccinated.
Otherwise, this cycle of players disappearing regularly onto the COVID-IL will continue into next season, and the culture of mediocrity will persist for years.

[andyb]

It is not just about Hoskins and Eflin coming off an average season. It is also that the previous year's salary ($4.8 million for Hoskins, $4.45 million for Eflin) are an important variable in the next contract and Hoskins is only in his second year. Absent very good seasons it is hard to see those salaries doubling (and I worry we won't see much more of Eflin at all with his knees acting up).

[bkox]

Perhaps management can't immediately trade all the anti-vaxxers; however, all five players listed above must be vaccinated. Or, they sit it out. A chat with their agents may be necessary. Middleton must then make clear that players will only be retained on the 40-man roster for next season, if they are vaccinated.

This just isnt how baseball works. The Union would file a grievance and they would most likely win. Plus a lot of the vaxxed players are agreeing with the anti-vaxxers because of coincidence of injuries happening around the same time they got vaxxed. You would turn the entire team against management.

[andyb]

One of the issues is that collective bargaining in baseball just does not work as well as in other sports. The player's association and MLB could get together and mandate vaccines unless their are health and medical exceptions. They could force unvaccinated players to wear masks at all times and dress at the hotel like last year. There are lots of things they could do that would get the vaccination rate up to 95%. If something like 75% of players are vaccinated, then put it to a vote. Vaccinated players must be as annoyed with the unvaccinated as people are in other walks of life.

Labor negotiations are not entirely about money. This should be a solvable problem if both sides did not see it as part of the financial staredown coming this offseason. Just like they should have been able to find a way to play 80 games last year.

[Jeff05]

bkox, it's true that I am not particularly conversant with the basis for grievance claims in MLB and the machinations of collective bargaining. However, you don't explain why the players would "most likely win".

I agree with andyb. I can't imagine the vaccinated players being chill with the unvaccinated clowns in the clubhouse. (Ok, not exactly how Andy has put it. ) It's unsafe for them (and by extension, their families) and it's undermining their chances of making the playoffs.

I've expressed my views about MLB and the owners on several occasions, but once in a rare while, the enemy of my enemy (Covid-19) is my friend. SELL!

[bkox]

However, you don't explain why the players would "most likely win".

because the MLB union is the most powerful union in sports. ANd usually wins in matters like this where owners threaten money or playing time or what not.

[flyers19rw]

The CBA expires in December. No one knows what the parameters will be for the next one. There could be some vax language in it. If an outbreak happens during the rest of the season or in the POs that affects the outcome of the WS winner stuff is going to happen

[andyb]

That does not really matter though. This falls into the category of the players and managers working together to address a real time situation like they did last year. They did less well at this last year than the other leagues as they ended up with a shorter season. But they negotiated these 85% rules for players and they are clearly not working as well as they should as a soft incentive for players to get vaccinated.

If I were vaccinated and my team had to pull their starting pitcher and a couple of relievers hours before game time I would be pretty pissed off. Mandates are what everybody is talking about now and it is really due to the frustration of the majority who is vaccinated.

[zambonir]

zambonir, surely, six leaders (Harper, Realmuto, Nola, Wheeler, McCutchen and Giradi) are sufficient for a squad this size. I don't think the Phillies need more leaders; rather, the Phillies need players who behave responsibly. Of course, a player can be perceived as a leader AND still be an irresponsible prat. At the moment, I fear that the Club's concept of team leadership is premised as much upon the size of players' contracts and performance, as it is upon their conduct on and off the the field.

I'm talking quality of leadership, not quantity. And on your list of six, one guy is a free agent and the other is a manager who's not doing a good job, off or on the field. Same goes for Hoskins, who may prefer to be a low-key guy, but this was supposed to be "his" team eventually. And Cutch and Didi were both specifically brought here in part because of their clubhouse presence. Meanwhile, Herrera has never been universally loved in the clubhouse even before his arrest; ditto Segura on previous teams.

Normally I am reluctant to assume we know much about team chemistry, how hard people work, what sort of leadership styles (vocal or by example) are effective. If this team was just five games better even the vax status wouldn't be as big a focus. Either way, if this season is another failure, dramatic changes are probably in order (since it's still not going to be a rebuild). Letting Cutch and Herrera walk is the easy way. Trading Didi or Segura or Hoskins is harder. Trading one of the Big Four would be dramatic (and still unlikely).

You can't purge unvacccinated players or force them to do it (barring that being negotiated) but hopefully the conversation can still change - and the roster will. In some ways it seems we agree - those 6 people you mentioned are either unvaccinated or have been unable to have any sway in the clubhouse to get people vaccinated. So they aren't good leaders.

[flyers19rw]

All true but when a master contract is up in the air, all things, even sensible ones, become negotiable.

[BostonRoss]

I have a hard time judging the leadership ability of players based on how many players are vaccinated. So many people refuse to get vaccinated for a variety of reasons, including stubbornness, ignorance, political beliefs, or belief of misinformation. Overcoming that is really hard, as demonstrated by the high unvaccinated rate in society in general.

[andyb]

Leadership theoretically overcomes stubbornness, ignorance, political beliefs, and misinformation. Sometimes leaders persuade people to do unpopular things because it is the right thing to do. Like our political leaders 80 years ago used to do....

[BostonRoss]

So maybe the lack of good leaders is a problem for society, not the Phillies alone.

[zambonir]

Agreed, but the original report cited influential players as a factor in the low vaccination rate, and we've also seen A) vaccinated players still speaking out against the vaccine and B) vaccinated players, and the manager, basically shrugging the whole thing off, or endorsing the "it's a personal choice" philosophy, when it plainly is not (forget the ethics and public health ramifications, it's purely a business decision in this context).

I will judge them all in that nobody has really stepped up to say, "I'm vaccinated, it's great!," if not actively/publicly encouraged others to do it.

It might be a stretch to say that example carries over to the playing field, because sure, vaccination is a more complicated issue (even if it shouldn't be). But on some fundamental level I feel like if Joe can't get the team aligned on this, how is he supposed to get them to take extra grounders or run out a pop fly? And if our veteran leaders were actively pro-vaccination rookies would be totally susceptible to peer pressure - and it's mostly been rookies lately.

[zambonir]

So maybe the lack of good leaders is a problem for society, not the Phillies alone.

Clearly! But society still has both elected officials and private businesses showing leadership, if not always successfully. I know the Phillies have attempted to do so privately, but in that sense it is no different than baseball stuff - the GM and the manager can only do so much, buy-in has to come from the players, and every manager has a group of players who he trusts to get that buy-in.

[andyb]

The two demographics where we seem weakest in terms of vaccinations are young Southern kids (probably from states with low vaccination rates) and Latin America (where we really don't have great leaders beyond Didi who is not from a Spanish speaking country). If the clubhouse leaders don't seem to be tacking that first demographic problem at all (and if they are potentially part of the problem like Nola and Harper), it is really hard to see who could step up on the Latino side (where Neris could be part of the problem).

It is definitely a societal problem where we have lost the incentive of the collective public good (veering away from major league discussion so best continued on the COVID thread). That does not explain why the Phillies and some teams are dramatically worse than other teams though. Internal leadership explains some of that.