2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[bkeich]

[not] Hamels 2021 is Pedro Martinez 2009 discussion

But there are 2 things very, very different.

Pedro joined a team that had just won a world series and was a clear favorite to return. That team wasnt doing great, but the talent on that team and the potential of that team was orders of magnitude better than this team. We just had a surge to get to .500, frankly, I dont think this is really even that good of a team, we have been weirdly lucky with injuries. This is a not a team that is in any way a WS contender, it would take a freaking miracle for us to even laughably talk about that. Maybe, and a big maybe, we could contend in the worst division in baseball and then get wiped out in the first round of the playoffs, that is the high ceiling of this team.

2nd... this hurts as a Philly fan, but Hamels is not Pedro and NEVER was. Pedro, when you look at his lifetime stats and the ones from his prime, really was a once in a generation talent. He probably deserves to be mentioned in the top 10 pitchers of the last 50 years, or maybe top 20. Hamels was a very good pitcher, an all-star, even an ace, but he was not anywhere near that level of success. Pedro is a clear Hall of Famer, Hamels is a fairly solid member of the Hall of Very Good. They arent the same guys buy a big margin. Hamels is probably closer to the top 200 of the last 50 years.

Pedro was likely to be an above average pitcher, even at that point in his career. And he proved that to be correct. Frankly, Hamels is hoping to catch on as a 5th starter somewhere and maybe (probably not) be average. Or maybe a job as a LOOGY. Basically, I think what Hamels is doing here is hunting a ring and hoping to catch on to the right team and hang around the bottom of their pitching staff just well enough to cap off his career with a ring. I dont blame him, if he can do it, why not. He isnt going to be the guy that does what Pedro did for the 2009 team, which was to add a top starter to a very good but stumbling team. I dont see any comparison between the situations.

[zambonir]

I do get the comparison, and the main commonality is that they cost you nothing compared to a trade. Given how little the Phillies have to offer on the trade market, you gotta at least consider it. But I think the real parallel to '09 is that we need a Lee, not a Pedro. Pitching has been a strength, but someone to slot in as a potential #3 or at least clear #4 would have a much bigger impact than simply hoping Hamels is a marginal upgrade over what we've had at the bottom. Or why not sign Cole and acquire another starter?

Presumably one reason teams will clamor to sign Hamels is there's value in a guy who's barely thrown a pitch in 20 months. Injuries and starters hitting the wall are still to come. But it's also possible he can't pitch.

I like this team's chances to make a playoff run lately, just not sure (let alone expecting) the price to do so - in both prospects and money - will be paid, and it still depends on a lot of wishful thinking regarding the offense and bullpen. But if the division is there for the taking, so is a series with Milwaukee, and after that, who knows. It would be a shame to do just enough to win the East at 87 games and win the NLDS on the strength of two Wheeler starts, only to see the weaknesses resurface in a longer series against an NL West team. If you believe it is possible for the Phillies to get there you may as well try to do more.

[California_Dreamin]

zambonir...precisely! Hamels costs nothing but money and if you trust DD and Fuld [and we kind of have to at this point] you know they will only attempt to sign him if they feel he can pitch, they have no heart string tugs to the past as they weren't here. And as I mentioned before, and I think its relevant, this team and the city of Philadelphia need a reason to care again and Hamels offers both that hope. The worst thing that can happen now is to have the mindset that "hey we are a .500 team and unlikely to make the playoffs and if we do, we are unlikely to win." Especially this year.

Look, I do not fear the Phils taking on the Giants, Brewers or Padres in a playoff series, they match up top of the rotation with all of them and Wheeler is likely the best rotation piece of the bunch. As for the Dodgers, they present a big problem but I suspect they will not have Bauer and maybe not even Kershaw come October and as the Nats showed in 2019, once you get into the playoffs for a solid top of the rotation, you can win.

I have no idea if Hamels is healthy, we will know more tomorrow and I didn't jump on the Hamels Train because I think he is the end all-be all necessarily. I jumped on the train because I do not want the tarnishing of his legacy to be the issue. If can pitch, he can pitch and he is left handed, a phan favorite and a guy who is more likely to see the 6th inning while still on the mound than in the clubhouse after already having showered a couple of innings before.

The team needs a storyline, all winning teams do. Hamels could provide that. Let's see.

[andyb]

I guess I care less about legacy in this discussion. The advantage with Hamels is he might take a bit less money from the Phillies than elsewhere, though as I have also said, I think I would be motivated about getting another ring in his shoes and not about money.

So I don't think he will choose Philly even if he pitches well enough for multiple teams to want to sign him. I also don't think the Phillies would sign him if his stuff is mediocre. I have always thought Hamels could succeed with a lesser fastball because of his change. Just have no idea if he is healthy enough to keep the right speed differential along with enough of a breaking pitch to get good lefthanded hitters out.

[zambonir]

I do wonder if he stills owns a condo in Philly.

[andyb]

This has actually been in the news lately:

Cole, Heidi Hamels selling custom-built Delco home for nearly $2.5M

Still has it but is selling. Now whether there are renters there I am not sure. Nice place.

[zambonir]

I was referring to this one though. Perhaps they sold it when they bult the house, but it would not be unusual to keep a city "crash pad." Less so when you haven't lived in the city for six years though.

Life at the Top - Two Liberty Place - Cole Hamels

[zambonir]

So, I guess my revised position on the All-Star game is that our front office, already faced with the possibility of not having Nola, should have begged Roberts not to pitch Wheeler. Though I suppose this sets him up to pitch against the Braves and Nats instead of the Yankees and Pirates.

#Phillies rotation this weekend vs. Marlins:

Friday G1: LHP Matt Moore
Friday G2: RHP Zach Eflin
Saturday: RHP Vince Velasquez
Sunday: RHP Zack Wheeler

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) July 15, 2021

[andyb]

I think they are just playing safe on workload and then the Braves/Nats reasoning. Of course it highlights the Nola absence. I wonder if there is still a chance he'll get activated for one of the Friday/Saturday games. Saturday could be the tough one if we go through the entire bullpen Friday. Remember we avoided using Damon Jones and Mauricio Llovera last Sunday. That will be hard to do over 3 games in 2 days with starters possibly going 5 or less in 2 of them. Assume Sanchez will pick up 3 innings in one game as he is still stretched out. We already have 14 pitchers on the roster and little to pick from for a 27th player if we are not going to recall Howard (Howard, Medina, Morales is it).

[bkox]

. That will be hard to do over 3 games in 2 days with starters possibly going 5 or less in 2 of them.

Yes and no.. remember the DH are 7 innings and not 9.

[zambonir]

I gotta assume they have a pretty good indication of Nola's availability. I suppose they are also set up to skip a turn if he can't go Tuesday.

They could always activate Chase Anderson, though I'm not sure that helps. And it seems this COVID outbreak isn't large enough to allow for extra 40-man space, so you'd have to DFA Joyce - maybe he'd get claimed or someone would trade for him at partial $?

Maybe Hamels starts on Tuesday

[bkox]

with the 7th inning DH, I would assume Joe hopes to get enough from Moore in G1 that Falter or Suarez can piggy back and finish the game for 2-3 innings.

Eflin should give 6 innings.

Saturday you use Falter if he wasnt used Friday. VV goes 4. Falter goes 2-3 and then you hope Neris/Alvarado/Bradley/ etc can give you the other innings.

Would be nice if the offense can give us a couple big games

[andyb]

Falter and Brogdon are on the COVID list too.

[bkox]

Falter and Brogdon are on the COVID list too.

glarg.. I was thinking Coonrod not Falter. Ok forget everything I said lol

[andyb]

I just assume Sanchez gives us that 2+ that Falter would have. Big question is really whether we need 2 or 3 relievers in each DH game. I hope we get 6 out of Eflin. If not, somebody like Damon Jones might pitch. And are we really going to use Suarez like a closer and pitch him 1 inning so he can go 2 days in a row?

We have all fresh arms after the break so we will not run out of pitchers. We just will probably have to use some of the pitchers in situations we don't want to if we are competitive in all 3 games.

[zambonir]

Coonrod is eligible to come off, don't know if he's ready (a reliever wouldn't necessarily rehab right?)

With a roster move they could throw Bedrosian right into the fire. De Los Santos is probably your first long man. FIP and BABIP suggests he's been wildly unlucky, if the small sample means anything either way.

If this team is going to continue the success it had before the break, they are going to have do it the same way they did on this last road trip - score runs! Don't force the bullpen to win games for you. That's how we won four of the last five, and late-inning relievers didn't factor into either of the losses.

Suarez only pitched twice in those seven games and one of them was just to get some work. If we have to use him tomorrow, then yes, you don't get him for multiple innings Saturday or Sunday (and probably not for three days in a row either).

[zambonir]

The Phillies said Nola tested negative for the virus, but players must spend at least a week on the injured list after coming in contact with an infected person.

Aaron Nola remains on COVID-19 list, will not pitch for the Phillies this...

The Phillies are expected to have at least four players - Nola, Bohm, and relief pitchers Connor Brogdon and Bailey Falter - on the COVID-19 injured list for Friday’s doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park. There is a chance that number could grow before Friday’s game if more players were identified as close contacts or if additional players test positive. Bohm tested positive last Saturday and is out until at least Wednesday.

[nycphils]

Idiocy. Or maybe Idiocracy.

[BostonRoss]

The Phillies said Nola tested negative for the virus, but players must spend at least a week on the injured list after coming in contact with an infected person.

Bohm tested positive last Saturday and is out until at least Wednesday.

This implies that coming in contact with an infected person requires being out longer than being an infected person. Did the Inquirer get this wrong, or is there some crazy inconsistency?

[bkox]

Sun to next Wed would be 10 days as well