2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Yes, and gout is not unrelated to kidney function (not sure about pseudo-gout). But I imagine in his mind the vaccine might have aggravated it, or caused an immune response that did so. Which in my mind is still better than getting COVID. But clearly Didi was advised by his doctors to get the shot (he also recently stopped masking).

It's truly unfortunate the clubhouse apparently has some aggressively anti-vaccine voices as I suspect some if not most of the players who haven't done it are just apathetic or indifferent, so if a buddy in the clubhouse argues against it that only makes it easier for them to not bother. I'm sure the vaccination rate for 24-28 year-olds in general is not great, and we know it's not great in certain states (presumably including Louisiana and Nebraska, if not California).

In a game where people do all kinds of stupid stuff - including taking illegal drugs and cheating with sticky stuff and stealing signs - in order to do anything it takes to win, it is really just kind of sad and hilarious that these guys would willingly give up this competitive advantage, as well as the convenience (no masks, no contract tracing devices) that makes for a smoother season.

[julio]

Yeah -- in his mind. But this is just typical of the ignorant convincing themselves that they're not ignorant, probably compounded by the fact that we're talking about elite athletes here - young men who have been kowtowed to their entire lives, who tend not to recognize that being good at sports does not impute wisdom or knowledge.

Sadly, what usually happens in such situations is that the denial goes on until there's a brutal wake-up call. A close-to-home example: When a woman's husband dies of COVID, that's when the vaccine hesitancy and denial goes away. Too late; and she'll have to live with that.

[Patchmk88]

Man seeing these comments and VV acting like a baby, really brought my excitement down from the 1st half surge. We have a decent amount of clowns on our team.

[LoneStarPhan]

It is sad that the Phillies complete a 5-2 road trip to get back to .500 and seemingly in the race for the NL East and the discussion is centered around a very negative story: the loss of players to COVID. It is especially sad since the losses are unnecessary and fully the result of the players' actions.

From the Athletic:

Depleted Phillies' will a win but face continued competitive disadvantage...

On reaching the 85% vaccinated level_: They are unlikely to reach that mark in 2021, and thus will continue to play at a competitive disadvantage for the remainder of the season._

Had more of the Phillies players been vaccinated, the league would not have removed pitchers Aaron Nola, Connor Brogdon and Bailey Falter through contact tracing.

Clearly, the action of a few players have already hurt the team. These actions will continue to hurt the team every game one of them misses due to their choice to not be vaccinated.

[zambonir]

Well, I'll cut Vince some slack if he's vaccinated.

I am also willing to cut the foreign-born and non-white players a bit of slack. The historic and cultural factors behind their hesitancy, as well as the lack of information, comes from a different place than if - oh, let's just say for instance - you attended an American university.

I just find it surprising that the "anything for the team" ethos didn't win out, and Girardi's shoulder-shrugging - or inability/unwillingness to change anyone's mind - seems like a real failure of leadership... and one that extends to certain players too (though if some of our most prominent vets are among the anti-vaxxers, there ya go). Makes me wonder what the owners think about it too.

They should send Manuel in there to be the vaccine educator, who's gonna say no to Charlie?

[VoteForKalas]

I just find it surprising that the "anything for the team" ethos didn't win out, and Girardi's shoulder-shrugging - or inability/unwillingness to change anyone's mind - seems like a real failure of leadership... and one that extends to certain players too (though if some of our most prominent vets are among the anti-vaxxers, there ya go). Makes me wonder what the owners think about it too.

That was my take too, a failure of leadership from the top on down to Girardi and the player leaders as well.

This should not be an issue - you get vaccinated to help yourself, your family, your friends, your teammates, your organization and society at large. I get the Phillies should not mandate it, but it should be strongly encouraged from the top on down. Now that it is impacting the team's ability to play games, it is really inexcusable that leadership is not taking tackling this head-on. I could not wait to get vaccinated so that I could travel, see family and enjoy life again.

[bkox]

Scherzer over Wheeler for All star starter

[zambonir]

They should have just gone with Marquez for the hometown fans. Picking Scherzer as a nod to Martinez and the 2019 champions missing out on last year's game just seems convoluted at this point. But obviously they will all pitch.

[zambonir]

Hey, look at this:

Believe it or not, Baseball Reference has the Phillies with the best odds to win the National League East. #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/Nop1RPsOwh

— Kevin Dickson ( @kdickson53 ) July 12, 2021

2021 Major League Baseball Playoff Odds | Baseball-Reference.com

Not at all the case on Fangraphs, where Mets are at 75% and Phillies at 15%.

[andyb]

Clearly plugging Ranger Suarez into the closer role is messing with everyone's models that previously assumed we would blow 22 more saves.

[zambonir]

I'm assuming BBREF is weighing future strength of schedule more heavily (or at least, it simulation has us winning more of those games). And the Braves are probably falling. One thing we are/have been overall (knock wood) is healthy. With baseball-related health, at least.

[BostonRoss]

Maybe their model has a high probability of further deGrom injuries

[Sabin]

That article can provide a couple of things for phans to be thankful for: a model showing them still to be the favorite to win the pennant, and one in which their team's projected 'best' finishing record doesn't include 100 losses... #biteofthediamondbacks

[zambonir]

It will certainly be interesting to see how many wins it actually takes to win the East. 89 being the ceiling in this projection.

Also interesting to wonder what sort of models and projections the front office favors (or has in-house).

[BostonRoss]

Something seems fishy in bbref’s system. The average outcome is the Phillies at 82-80 and the Mets at 81-80. I’m sure they would end up playing the same number of games if it’s that close.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I noticed that too. The Mets had all those doubleheaders, I wonder if the lower innings count somehow led to that projection, or if the system assumes that just because they've had so many make-up games they'll have more

But, at 82-80/81-80 an extra Mets game would not be played. At 89-73 and 88-73 I assume the simulation is giving the Phillies tiebreakers that would also make that so.

Were either team in the wild card race that would be a whole other situation.

[bkox]

Phillies are among teams planning to watch Cole Hamels’ showcase Friday. 114 of his 163 regular-season wins came for Philly, plus of course the 2008 NLCS and WS MVPs

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) July 13, 2021

[zambonir]

I wonder if Cole's best play is to get an offer from a team that doesn't want to buy on the trade market, or if he should just stay available until August 1.

And of course more importantly, would he actually be an upgrade over Moore or Vince?

[andyb]

Hard to know what Cole has left. I would guess he wants the best chance at a World Series rather than just a chance at the playoffs. He probably would need 3 or 4 healthy and productive years to have any Hall of Fame chance, so to me this would be about getting one more ring with a team in need of a 5th starter (where he could work his way into a playoff rotation).

I wonder if the Padres would have any interest given his high school ties there.

[bkox]

Scott Kingery was transferred from the 7 day IL to the 60 day IL over the weekend

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) July 13, 2021