2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

I guess the rest of the league is wondering whether he was our master of the sticky stuff.

And he just didn't use it the last two Septembers?

I think he's having a pretty normal season, WHIP is the same as it was in 2019 and FIP is a point lower than his ERA (and surely unearned runs have hurt him too). Just some more dramatic swings (both good and bad). And while it obviously hasn't hurt Wheeler, who knows what effect 2020 might have had on his arm/stamina.

[Sabin]

I've thought the same regarding his swings this year. Seems batters are hitting significantly more balls in the air against him this year, with an uptick in bases as well.

SLG: .424 - career high (.403 in rookie season); .375 career avg
OPS: .727 - career high (.712 in 2016); .670 career avg
babip: .333 - 2nd highest of career (.340 in 2016); .298 career avg

GB%: 40.4% - career low (48.0% in rookie season); 49.1% career avg
FB%: 27.9% - career high (22.1% in 2017); 19.5% career avg
GB/FB %: 1.45% - career low (2.26% in 2017); 2.52% career avg

He seems to be attacking the zone more this year as well, with his SO% three points higher than his career average and BB% about two points lower.

[andyb]

Interesting discussion between the Red Sox and Phillies beat writers about where the two franchise are and when they should rebuild. Gelb closes with this roster is really not worth the investment (which I agree with) but resigned to them acquiring minor pieces in the bullpen or the back of the rotation. And Pivetta is pitching Sunday.

How did the Phillies and Red Sox end up in such different places this season?

[zambonir]

I would love for them to win some games this month and keep playing meaningful baseball, especially when we don't even have any prospects to bring up as And for anyone that's traded - they are all either here already or need to stay in Lehigh Valley. But it will be disappointing to end up with 83-85 wins and not get anything for the free agents. Maybe the Mets' weakness and our softer September schedule can still make things work out, but that's not worth going big at the deadline for, and I think they need to go big in order to really make a run (at the very least, quality pieces for the bullpen and the back of the rotation, if not a position player). I don't imagine they are actually going to play well enough for the next three weeks to push things in that direction, which is probably just as well, and also hard to them imagine making a run in September with the last six games away (plus three at Citi Field mid-month).

[Austinfan]

Phillies aren't going anywhere until they fix the scouting and player development.

Though given the last two years, I'll give player development a full season before making judgments, it may well be that some prospects catch fire in August after a few months playing on a regular basis to work on flaws.

But you shouldn't miss on so many 1st rd picks, finding a Hoskins, Howard, Brogdon, Maton and Williams and Falter doesn't make up for the underperformance of Randolph, Moniak, Haseley. Though Gowdy seems back. Still waiting for a LA player to emerge, Suarez isn't enough.

If just one of those 1st rd OFs and a LA player had emerged, and maybe a young SP, this team would look very different - you don't need to hit on every one, just enough to fill out the lineup with cheap talent.

[flyers19rw]

Phillies aren't going anywhere until they fix the scouting and player development.

This is the bottom line. Until the internal system is able to produce players that can make the club competitive, they'll be putting a roster together with free agents, bubble gum and bandaids. Development wise, the Amaro/Klentak years were a disaster. There are a few younger guys presently in the system that look as though they will be fine MLB players but there aren't enough of them. Tomorrow's draft is a real big deal in filling in that void. So will the return on the veterans that the Phillies trade out over the next two seasons. If possible players like Segura, Hoskins and a couple of others need to be shopped. With so many teams in need of SP for the stretch run, even VV might get back some lottery ticket. Sign someone such as Hamels to fill in the void in the rotation for the time being.

[allentown]

finding a Hoskins, Howard, Brogdon, Maton and Williams and Falter doesn't make up for the underperformance of Randolph, Moniak, Haseley.

Absolutely correct. A little over half of our total slot allocation is allotted to the first round pick. That's an indication of how important it is. We likely will again sign a few (doubt we sign as many as last year) nondrafted guys for $20K, so the first rounder gets just about exactly half of all the $ we will spend on this draft. That's where drafts are made or lost. We really don't know who makes the choice. It seemed pretty clear at the time that Gillick chose Moniak. We know that the Eagles owner has chosen some of the first rounders, with Howie as his mouthpiece. We know the Phillies first round pick is a group effort. That group dynamic may well be what is failing them.

[zambonir]

Development wise, the Amaro/Klentak years were a disaster.

Don't leave out Gillick (both times).

[andyb]

They seem to have changed the scouting and development leadership several times in the past decade. Who knows if they got it right though. Hard to tell about the current regime which is more analytics driven. Barber did well last year with the wild card being the $20K free agent signings where we might have been the top (or at least one of the top) clubs.

It is even harder to tell about development as you really need years to tell if the regime got it right.

Whatever the truth may be, it is kind of meaningless to say they aren't going anywhere till they fix it. We won't know if they have fixed it for 5 years. We should really focus on what moves they should make and I am leaning towards standing pat and not mortgaging the future to lose a wild card game. And standing pat means we learn more about our young players by giving them bigger roles (like Suarez and Brogdon in the bullpen). We should still consider trading if we fall out of contention right before the deadline (guys like Cutch, but even mid-tier players like Eflin who have value). We just should not consider adding much unless we can do it with cash instead of prospects.

[zambonir]

Whatever the truth may be, it is kind of meaningless to say they aren't going anywhere till they fix it. We won't know if they have fixed it for 5 years. We should really focus on what moves they should make and I am leaning towards standing pat and not mortgaging the future to lose a wild card game. And standing pat means we learn more about our young players by giving them bigger roles (like Suarez and Brogdon in the bullpen). We should still consider trading if we fall out of contention right before the deadline (guys like Cutch, but even mid-tier players like Eflin who have value). We just should not consider adding much unless we can do it with cash instead of prospects.

I still wouldn't trade an Eflin (or Hoskins) at the deadline (nor do I think the 2022 team can afford to just subtract Eflin and keep winning like we're Tampa). But it seems likely to be a dramatic off-season no matter what happens.

They're not gonna lose a wild card game though. That's what actually makes it harder. If their primary path to the playoffs was with four or five other teams for the second wild card, I'd do nothing. But to the extent they have a legit chance, it comes with a division title. And come to think of it, they won't even have to play one of the strong NL West teams right? The rule about an intra-division NLDS went away, so the NL East champion will likely play Milwaukee (a team we are 4-0 against).

When I look at it that way, I'm still thinking not only of improving, but of trying to win that series. NLCS would be harder but we know it could happen.

I still reckon July is going to go much like June, in which case I'd rather sell than buy. And if they somehow play .600 ball, sure, ride the wave.

[bkox]

Phillies place Odubel Herrerra on the 10 IL with left ankle tendonitis.

Recall JD Hammer from AAA

[zambonir]

So, not punishing him.

Not just a just a recall, Hammer also had to be added to the 40 (Feliz's spot was still open).

I guess they still have 2-3 weeks of rehab leeway on Joyce and Anderson, by which point it might not matter.

[bkox]

Hammer will be the 43rd player and 22nd pitcher to appear in a game for the Phillies this season

[zambonir]

And I'm sure Bedrosian will make 44 and 23, though we could easily add someone else before he gets his look.

Seems like a million years ago that Spencer Howard was up.

[bkox]

Alec Bohm is in COVID protocol, per Joe Girardi. He exited in the 8th inning today after hitting a two-run homer. No additional details yet.

Bohm has been coming around. He's hit .310 over his last 26 games and driven in 15 runs.

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) July 10, 2021

[Patchmk88]

I guess if it was going to happen this would be the best time for it.

[Sabin]

Some general batting stats at a glance...

Season (43-44):

.241 /.316 /.401 (.717)
9.4 k / 3.4 bb (per game)
8.0 h / 6.7 lob / 4.6 r (per game)

April - May (25-29):

.233 /.307 /.373 (.679)
10.1 k / 3.2 bb
7.6 h / 6.7 lob / 3.9 r

June - July (18-15):

,253 /.330 /.445 (.775)
8.3 k / 3.6 bb
8.6 h / 6.7 lob / 5.7 r

July (6-3):

.268 /.345 /.522 (.867)
7.9 k / 3.9 bb
9.3 h / 5.8 lob / 7.1 r

2020 (28-32):

.257 /.342 /.439 (.781)
8.0 k / 3.8 bb
8.3 h / 7.0 lob / 5.1 r

[Squire]

Aaron Nola, Alec Bohm, Connor Brogdon and Bailey Falter all placed on the COVID IL this morning

[kmc1019]

Does that imply that none of the them are vaccinated?

[Austinfan]

So we have a lot of idiot players who didn't get vaccinated. I'd fine them.