2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[bkox]

Seems Didi's defense is ready for Philly:

Didi Gregorius 1 for 5 in latest rehab game for @IronPigs ... nine innings for the 1st time. He also committed his first error that led to five unearned runs in a 10-9 loss at @BuffaloBisons

Chase Anderson threw 2 scoreless IP (allowed 2 hits) in his first rehab outing.

— Tom Housenick ( @TomHousenick ) July 1, 2021

[frylock]

Team is such a mess.

I like Girardi as a person and liked the hire, but I agree with what one person said on one of these threads, something to the extent of "with each passing day, my opinion of Girardi gets worse and worse". Pretty fair assessment. I don't think he's the main problem as he has a bad roster, but I don't think he's maximizing results. After the season, if it's determined he's lost the team like Kapler did, wouldn't be surprised if he's gone.

But the primary issue of course is roster construction, which is coupled with the terrible drafting since the rebuild. A bad defensive team and a terrible bullpen isn't really something a manger can do a ton to help with.

Still amazes me how the rebuild was botched and the position the team is in. Agree with those who've said another total rebuild would be optimal, but I'm sure it won't happen with Dombrowski here and the expected fan reaction of another rebuild so close to the initial.

[Philsmania]

Sometimes rebuilds don't work.

[andyb]

Matt Gelb: The Phillies will make some bullpen changes... - The Athletic

Kintzler and Hammer likely back. Feliz likely DFA and EDLS optioned down. No surprises though probably no solutions either.

[flyers19rw]

No doubt about it that the team is a mess. Fixing it isn't going to be easy. I'm not upset about Girardi. I don't know how much better he could do with a roster like this. The common sense moves that he has tried don't seem to work because these players seem to do the unthinkable when they are put on the field.
At this point what concerns me the most is can Joe keep this locker room from blowing up on itself? There are a few guys on the club who understand fundamental baseball and to see these things ignored inning after inning has to be mind blowing. Baseball is a game but to these players, it's a profession. Players consistently messing up affects the livelihoods of others not just the score on the board. At a certain point some, I can see a guy doing something stupid and a team mate snapping on him for that.

[zambonir]

I should have put money on the Phillies finishing June at 12-12.

Thing is, they also have by far the worst run differential in the division now. -24. Mets are -2. All the other teams are positive, with the Marlins underperforming what is now, thank to last night, their division-leading +21. They'd be in first place according to XW-L, with the Braves behind them.

Not a perfect stat, but definitely the kind of thing analytical GMs consider when predicting how the division race might play out over 162.

Question is, do the Phillies look at that and say that trade deadline improvements could be the difference, or look at that and say they are chasing windmills? Sure, you can say the Mets are there for the taking but the Phillies don't necessarily have the second or even third-best chance of taking.

[bkeich]

Matt Gelb: The Phillies will make some bullpen changes... - The Athletic

The Phillies will make some bullpen changes today. One possible scenario: Neftalí Feliz is designated for assignment and Enyel De Los Santos is optioned so...

Kintzler and Hammer likely back. Feliz likely DFA and EDLS optioned down. No surprises though probably no solutions either.

"Someone go out and straighten out those deck chairs, just ignore the iceburg, it isnt important, but the deck chairs must line up properly"

[Taudawg]

Just like the 2020 team, if this squad had an average or better bullpen, they probably be leading the division. Can Dombrowski navigate being both a seller and buyer and fix the bullpen? The defensive is what it is, no fixing that at this point.

[California_Dreamin]

Taudawg...you are precisely correct. As bad as this team has played they would be leading the league if they could just hold onto their leads late. In just their last 5 losses they lead in all of them. Turn around and they are in first place [remember two of them were against the Mets.] I would try to pry Simmons from the Twins and get a proven closer somehow. I always hoped for Hader, who I know the Phils tried to get last year but he is no longer available since the Brewers might even have aspirations of a World Series berth.

I suspect that Phoenix and Atlanta have given every team in sports renewed hope that they can turn things around quickly.

[bkox]

Neftali Feliz DFA’d. Brandon Kintzler activated.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) July 1, 2021

[andyb]

Moore starting tonight instead of Eflin who appears to have a cold (negative COVID test at least). Eflin moved back to Saturday tentatively.

[zambonir]

Interesting comments from Kintzler about the COVID vaccine. Not judging, he might be right! I was able to return to my relatively undemanding desk work, but competing at an elite athletic level could be a whole other thing. Of course, he makes it sound like the shot might have caused the injuries, instead of just that these guys injured themselves while still experiencing a normal immune response.

Kintzler made the Phillies as a non-roster invitee to spring training. He led the National League in saves last season with Miami and posted a 2.55 ERA in the last two seasons. But he had a 8.50 ERA in 20 appearances before being placed on the injured list earlier this month with a strained neck.

“It was terrible. I couldn’t even see the catcher,” Kintzler said. “I had to change my arm slot every day.”

He thinks his neck injury was a result of the COVID-19 vaccination he received during the first week of the season. “My body just kind of shut down. I was messed up for a while,” Kintzler said.

Kintzler had the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, felt wiped out, and then faced eight batters in an outing that spanned two innings.

“I think everyone should recover for a week from that thing,” Kintzler said. “Archie [Bradley] strained his oblique after it. [Matt] Joyce had back problems. There has to be some science behind it.”

Kintzler pitched for six weeks with a sore neck, which he said caused his back to lock up.

Anyway, hopefully it really was the injury.

Brandon Kintzler loves MLB’s sticky-substance ban and says some guys can’t throw...

[bkox]

The Phillies activated Didi Gregorius. He missed 50 days with elbow inflammation / pseudogout issues. Nick Maton was optioned.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) July 2, 2021

[schillingfan]

I’m not happy with Girardi’s bullpen usage. He seems to be looking for set one inning roles - player X is the closer, play er Y the eighth inning, player Z the seventh. If some does well two times and another one stinks, he shifts them around. I don’t think that somehow we’ve managed to change the pieces entirely and still have an awful bullpen. It drives me crazy that he only goes one inning at a time, instead of two if they have done well. Yes, two innings might make a guy unavailable the next day, but if they’ve got their groove, let em go. How often are four guys going to all pitch well on the same day?

[zambonir]

The two inning thing doesn't bother me. As often as not when you stick with the hot hand they don't pitch well in the second inning. Some relievers have that ability to go 4 batters, and some 6 outs, but a bunch of them don't.

It just seems like he manages to make multiple guys unavailable at the same time a lot. And he also veers back and forth between role ("so-and-so pitches the 8th inning") and match-up. But when your starters can't go 5 and you are carrying 6-7 starters on your roster, it's too easy for things to fall apart.

At this point he should be riding his best guys hard, or else he'll be saving them for games that don't mean anything.

[BostonRoss]

My main strategic complaint with Girardi is that he double switches every chance he gets, even when it won't matter. The other night, he double switched when Neris came in, even though there was really no chance Neris would pitch another inning.

But my main overall complain about Girardi is that he isn't getting much out of the players that they weren't already giving. And there are a lot of mistakes beyond the physical errors, which Girardi can't really do anything about.

[Sabin]

The two inning thing doesn't bother me. As often as not when you stick with the hot hand they don't pitch well in the second inning. Some relievers have that ability to go 4 batters, and some 6 outs, but a bunch of them don't.

I'd be interested in seeing the data/link that fleshes this out. While it obviously can happen, my experience is that it isn't a 50% proposition - or, 'as often as not' - provided the manager isn't overusing a tired or slumping arm, and being relatively savvy about when he chooses to do it.

Personally, I've felt there are times Girardi has pulled a reliever too soon as well (in addition to his propensity to overuse the double switch). But the examples include times when a reliever has closed out an inning, notching the last out or two with a handful of pitches; or instances like Wheeler's short start against the Nationals, when Girardi brought used both of his quality long-men for short stints in the same game (Falter in for one inning, Suarez for 1.2).

Of course, bullpens are a lot easier to manage when the majority of its constituents are performing relatively well. While I have questioned the occasional Girardi move/decision, the group has been frustratingly inconsistent as well (whether or not their roles were adjusted). But this, along with your previous comment, makes your latter stance of suggesting Girardi should be 'riding his best guys hard', a bit confusing. With some of the injury shuffling, lack of consistency, and your wont to avoid more than one inning of use for the in-game hot hand, this becomes a difficult proposition.

[zambonir]

I don't think he should be extending their outings, nor should anyone be pitching three days in a row, but he seems overly gun-shy about even two days in a row in some cases, and he has also specifically said he believes in limiting appearances in the first half of the season. Part of that is easing them into it I'm sure, but the other part is making sure they still have something in September - or October. That is pretty much all Girardi knows. But this team's most meaningful games are now... or never.

[Sabin]

That doesn't change the fact that there really hasn't been a hot hand for Girardi to turn to. Suarez and Falter would probably be considered the most reliable right now, but even Suarez has shown some hiccups since being moved to a higher leverage, late-inning role (7h, 4bb, 3er in 8.2 innings since June 12).

I don't think anyone is suggesting extending anyone beyond their reasonable means. When evaluating pitchers - in this case, relievers - length should be evaluated on pitch count, not innings; additional strategy would include the opposing lineup, upcoming hitter, splits, the current state of bullpen (current day and the next), etc. I don't necessarily agree with your rather general statement that the hot hand simply doesn't pitch well in a second inning more often than not - there are more factors in play there.

[zambonir]

I don't necessarily agree with your rather general statement that the hot hand simply doesn't pitch well in a second inning more often than not - there are more factors in play there.

It's just impossible to prove either way on any given night, except with hindsight, same as when you pull (or don't pull) the starter. I can now sit here and say that had Girardi let Wheeler finish the 8th inning last night maybe Alvarado would have been more effective having not sat for a half-inning. Who knows. I can't prove it but no one can prove otherwise. It's also possible that Wheeler might have stayed in and allowed a single and a home run. I don't think there's really ever enough data when it comes to relievers, and Joe doesn't seem that driven by advanced match-ups anyway (which is to say, the way a pitcher's best pitch or 'tunneling' plays against a certain batter rather than just righty/lefty or head-to-head stats).

But Joe's rules have also led to using a lot of cold hands, like Hale and Neftali Feliz and De Los Santos. And his answer most of those times has been that too many of the better pitchers weren't available.

I also wonder, just as Joe doesn't seem especially good at double-switches, if the three-batter rule is something he's been unable to adjust to, especially as an AL manager who was able to make relief pitching changes with no other considerations or consequences. Certainly, even if it's not statistically significant, the Phillies' bullpen has been historically bad in the three-batter "era" - last year overall/in terms of ERA, this year with blown saves regardless of inning.

I still suspect the real answer is, yes, stop blowing saves, but also have a team that creates fewer save situations.