2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[Philsmania]

This is why we need new ownership and why our political leaders (Wolf, Kenney, et al.) need to pressure him to sell. Middleton only inherited stuff. He didn't build anything.

I dont want A-Rod as our owner.

Why? Jeter's working well. A-Rod would bring celebrity panache.

[bkox]

Why? Jeter's working well. A-Rod would bring celebrity panache.

Im trying to figure out if you were being serious or sarcastic. Jeter bought the team in Sept 2017. They finished last in 18 and 19.. lost over 100 games in 2019... somehow made the wildcard in a 60 game season and was swept in the NLDS and are once again in last place this year and they have the 4th lowest payroll in MLB

[Philsmania]

Why? Jeter's working well. A-Rod would bring celebrity panache.

Im trying to figure out if you were being serious or sarcastic. Jeter bought the team in Sept 2017. They finished last in 18 and 19.. lost over 100 games in 2019... somehow made the wildcard in a 60 game season and was swept in the NLDS and are once again in last place this year and they have the 4th lowest payroll in MLB

The Marlins made the postseason last year and the Marlins have one of baseball's top farm systems. I would say Jeter is working out very well.

[Austinfan]

The real problem is MIddleton has to sit down with some real baseball men, not hanger-on types and analyze why the organization is so poor at drafting and developiong talent. To be fair, they've made some major changes in the scouting group the last couple years, so maybe they're finally clearing out the "good ole boys" and bringing in some professionals.

It's hard to evaluate the minors right now, some players are looking awful, but they may be adjusting to new coaching, others are overperforming against expectations.

[mdougherty12]

Why? Jeter's working well. A-Rod would bring celebrity panache.

Im trying to figure out if you were being serious or sarcastic. Jeter bought the team in Sept 2017. They finished last in 18 and 19.. lost over 100 games in 2019... somehow made the wildcard in a 60 game season and was swept in the NLDS and are once again in last place this year and they have the 4th lowest payroll in MLB

The Marlins made the postseason last year and the Marlins have one of baseball's top farm systems. I would say Jeter is working out very well.

It seems like it was only 3 or 4 years ago that the Phillies were regarded as having one of baseball’s top farm systems. Actually it was just 3 or 4 years ago:

Top farm systems revealed: Padres No. 1

[bkox]

Yup.. we had 6 in the top 100. And it shows that the people who do these rankings can be just as wrong as the front office.. Kingery, Hasely and Moniak all top 100 prospects.

Sixto got us JT.. and now dealing with shoulder issues. Medina is struggling in AAA... and JP is a gold glove defender we should have never traded.

[zambonir]

Well, it's a nice fantasy. Just wait until Middleton Jr. is in charge!

I certainly don't think being owned by a media company would be better. It hasn't been for the Flyers, and as much as I don't care for the Sixers' ownership they've probably been an upgrade over Comcast. Both the Sixers and Flyers worked okay with corporate ownership but a hands-on person in charge (the short-lived Croce era and Snider, however flawed).

I'm sure the politicians are nice and chummy with ownership, just as the Comcast powers-that-be (the Roberts family, Cohen) are.

The player ownership groups always end up being underfunded, or the player isn't the real power. The Marlins have 16 owners and Jeter contributed just $25 million of the $1.2 billion. He's the CEO but Sherman is the "Middleton" (control person). Essentially not that different from the Phillies current structure except that I don't think DD got any equity (which Monty already had during his time, and Gillick was given).

Rollins would be the guy, if you had such a model here.

[Taudawg]

I'll take John Middleton ownership flaws. There's plenty more he should have done and should be doing, but the man is willing to spend money. I'm old enough to remember Giles and company crying poor, referring to Philly as small market, and completely skipping out on premier free agents.

[andyb]

Not sure we can change ownership.

I am concerned about Girardi lately. He seems to be both over-managing and under-managing at times, especially with regard to the pitching staff where managing bullpens was supposedly a strength. He has reverted so far into so called roles that he has forced himself into sticking with pitchers that have little chance. That is the under managing. Going to Neris too much. Giving Bradley big innings he should not be in.

Then there is the over managing where Ranger Suarez is probably exhibit one. The push to get him into more meaningful innings took him away from the 2-3 inning roles he was great at. Those 2-3 inning outings could easily have been in close games. But then he wanted to play with Suarez in short roles, making him unavailable for the roles he was good at.

Watching these last 3 games and seeing how well Enyel De Los Santos was pitching the last few weeks in LHV (and remembering his last outing with the Phillies) makes me wonder how he could NOT have pitched in 3 consecutive games watching pitchers with arguably lesser stuff blow games. Sticking with Torreyes in every game has exposed him too when you have two other shortstops that can hit better on the roster. Not playing Miller is curious as Girardi overreacts to short term slumps.

He has just had a bad couple of weeks of managing where a little creativity might have saved a game or two.

[BostonRoss]

It is my impression that we always notice the strategic mistakes of the managers we see every day without noticing that nearly all managers make lots of such mistakes. We didn't think Girardi made a lot of mistakes until he became our manager, because we didn't see the Yankees every day when Joe was the manager. Plus, many things we think are mistakes are really not, and many mistakes don't ever matter in the game outcomes.

The in-game decisions, in my opinion, are not what make a good manager. It is how he handles the team and whether he gets the most out of his players. Girardi can't make Hoskins a good fielder or Neris a lights-out closer.

It's hard to say Joe has done a good job given the results. He is getting slightly below average results from an average team. He's obviously intelligent, but he also seems to be defensive (an ironic adjective for the manager of this team), which is surprising given his many years of playing and managing in New York. I don't put much stock in last year's results, but this year's results so far are not promising. He deserves to finish out the season, but his future after that depends on what happens the rest of the year.

[Taudawg]

2022 is Girardi's last guaranteed year - option year 2023. He is also Middleton's hire. If they are truly letting Dombrowski call the shots, I think Girardi is gone. Smart guy, nice guy, but I haven't seen anything to suggest he is anything exceptional.

[schillingfan]

I don’t like his handling of the bullpen. He is making too many changes. He has Eflin make the last out batting, then takes him out of the game because of the matchup. Suarez did pitch well with an unlucky home run, but may be should never have gotten to Neris. I don’t think the bullpen is as bad as last year.it’s inconsistent, but they have had some pretty good games.

[zambonir]

surprising given his many years of playing and managing in New York.

Right?!!!! If you can handle WFAN and the Post you can handle WIP and Marcus Hayes. Especially when the whole city is only talking about the Sixers anyway.

2022 is Girardi's last guaranteed year - option year 2023. He is also Middleton's hire. If they are truly letting Dombrowski call the shots, I think Girardi is gone.

I think the fact that you just typed that the owner, rather than the GM or President, hired the manager, is exactly why Middleton's not that much better than Giles or Monty, along with the fact that he spends money badly. Different problems, but same results. And don't forget that he's been in the picture almost this whole time too.

I agree he will likely defer to Dombrowski, probably was part of the deal in hiring him (plus he is likely humbled by so many of his own moves backfiring). But the fact that the took away his GM and President's firing/hiring power without actually firing them just set things back another year or two.

[Sabin]

It is my impression that we always notice the strategic mistakes of the managers we see every day without noticing that nearly all managers make lots of such mistakes.

In general I agree with this (though my personal opinion was that Girardi was a bit overrated during his time in New York - perhaps a side effect of inherent Yankees-dislike I had kicking around? Not sure.).

I am concerned about Girardi lately. He seems to be both over-managing and under-managing at times, especially with regard to the pitching staff where managing bullpens was supposedly a strength. He has reverted so far into so called roles that he has forced himself into sticking with pitchers that have little chance. That is the under managing. Going to Neris too much. Giving Bradley big innings he should not be in.

Then there is the over managing where Ranger Suarez is probably exhibit one. The push to get him into more meaningful innings took him away from the 2-3 inning roles he was great at. Those 2-3 inning outings could easily have been in close games. But then he wanted to play with Suarez in short roles, making him unavailable for the roles he was good at.

But I also agree with this - I've thought the same more than once over the past couple of weeks myself. While a manager must be evaluated on more than in game decisions - the quality perception of which is often tied more to emotion than anything else - they can nonetheless impact the course of a game. Now, can one argue that if the team as a whole is above-average they're more likely to produce a favorable outcome (win) than a less-than-favorable one (loss) despite the wrinkles of in-game decisions, questionable calls, bad luck, etc.? Absolutely.

But at the same time, whether one may wish to argue the Phillies are average, or perhaps - as their recent record would have them - slightly below, they certainly aren't an above average club. So when you take someone like a Suarez - who, coupled with Howard, was providing very effective production out of the 5th starter's slot - move him to higher leverage, and see him struggle a bit while the 5th starter is basically eliminated for a month while three of the other four starters are posting ERAs north of five... it's going to catch some attention, most of it negative.

It reminds me of the old business adage that managing a higher volume operation, with all of its additional costs, people, and potential problems, is easier than overseeing its low-volume counterpart. Mistakes are amplified and scrutinized far more in the latter; the general success of the former (top-line $) smooths out those bumps, and all is seen as good.

[California_Dreamin]

In the aftermath of this weekend's shoulda/coulda/woulda but didn't sweep of the New York Mets it is worth noting that in 34 innings of play the Phillies either lead or were tied for ALL but 2 pitches. Unfortunately they were the last pitches of Games 1 & 3 and the Phils may live to rue such a near miss weekend.

It certainly reminded me of two other very important series played by the 1964 Phillies, one against the then challenging SF Giants in August and even more importantly a two game series against the Cardinals in early September. Both series were played at Connie Mack Stadium and the Phillies dominated both series in terms of having the lead.

In mid August, with the Giants neck and neck with the Phillies, they played 30 innings [ two extra inning tilts] and the Phils lead or were tied in no less than 29 of them. Yet the Phils found a way to lose one of the three games and in a season so tense, that 1 game was huge.

Still that series paled in comparison to the September series against the suddenly surging Cardinals, who were 11 games out in late July but entered the crucial 2 game series trailing by 6 games. Certainly here was a chance for the Phillies to put away the Cardinals and with Jim Bunning pitching well and Chris Short pitching brilliantly they should have. In fact, in the 20 inning [first game went 11] back to back series the Phils lead or were tied in 19 of the 20 innings. Yep, all but 1 inning. Unfortunately the Cards rallied in the 9th inning to tie the first game and won in the 11th. Short was stellar the next day and the Phils lead all the way.

When it was over the Cards KNEW they had dodged a potential season ending bullet while the Phils were frustrated that they had failed to put St. Louis away when they came thisclose. When you have a team down you must keep them down or proceed at your own peril.

The Phils were again thisclose to a 4 game sweep of the Mets and while this team sure doesn't play like a contender, hit like a contender or field like a contender...they may look back on this weekend as the series that proved they weren't a contender. Even though they led or were tied for all but 2 pitches the entire weekend.

[zambonir]

Was thinking about this prior to last night, but the Phillies should trade Hector. He should still have value, and if he doesn't need a change of scenery per se, he could surely stand to face some hitters who haven't seen him so much, for so many years now.

Do it now, commit to Howard or Falter or both in the bullpen, and if they and Feliz aren't answer but the team is still good enough to buy, go get veteran help.

[Philsmania]

Was thinking about this prior to last night, but the Phillies should trade Hector. He should still have value, and if he doesn't need a change of scenery per se, he could surely stand to face some hitters who haven't seen him so much, for so many years now.

Do it now, commit to Howard or Falter or both in the bullpen, and if they and Feliz aren't answer but the team is still good enough to buy, go get veteran help.

A theory I've been kicking around is that the Phillies bullpen's problem since at least 2018 has simply been that "a fish rots from the head down". In this case, Neris is good a majority of the time but is unstable and inconsistent. You never know when his next crisis of confidence which renders him completely ineffective is around the corner. His instability leads to instability and uncertainty--which, in turn, leads to doubt--on down the bullpen chain. Then, we he unravels, it seems the rest of the bullpen unravels with him and we have nothing to turn to but pitchers who come in filled with panic. If we can just find someone who can be dependable in the closer role (maybe not Brad Lidge 2008 perfect but at least dependable with blown saves few and far between), things just might fall into place.

[zambonir]

I'm not sure I buy that theory. But any time you lose an important member of the bullpen, whether due to injury or ineffectiveness, other guys get exposed. Or they don't. Madson was almost as bad as Lidge when he tried to replace LIdge in 2009, and also blew two saves in the 2008 World Series, but he eventually became a good closer. That makes it easy to think he had to learn some things or get closing experience but it also might have just been a bad month.

And the Phillies were also able to just plug Giles and Seranthony right in. Now Giles is just like any other closer, a patchwork of excellence and injury and trash, and Seranthony's hurt. Coonrod and Brogdon haven't truly stepped up but Joe is also not a manager well-suited to bullpen adaptation (though Kapler was always more orthodox than expected too).

I might actually flip your theory entirely - it's stills the middle relief that's killing us, as most of those blown saves are neither Hector's nor ninth innings, and those failures only magnify the 9th-inning blown saves, or inability of the offense to come back in the late innings (though they've actually done that well, we just remember the times the don't).

For all the angst, June has actually been the best month of the season on paper, and even more impressive when you consider the injuries. 13-13 in April, 12-16 in May, now 11-10 in June. With one in Cincinnati and two at home against the pesky Marlins we'll probably finish 12-12. 13-11 would be nice and 14-10 would mean the team really is playing its most winning (if not "best) baseball of the year, and simply showed its flaws against the better teams (SD and SF on the road, and a Mets team we still played to a total draw). The 0-2 home series with the Nats was the low points; before the 2-4 West Coast road trip they went 7-2 (one game in Cincinnati and the 6-2 homestand).

So the limbo continues...

[Austinfan]

The answer to the bullpen is going to be pitchers like Brogdon or DLS or Hammer when they bring him up or . . .
The veterans are what they are, Coonrod, Bradley and Alvarado are fine in middle relief, so-so as set up guys, not good closer candidates.
Suarez is good depth, but probably better suited to a starter role, same with Falter.
Howard might be the wildcard, if he continues to struggle getting past 3-4 IPs, then a bullpen role is in his near future.

[julio]

David Hale cleared waivers, and has been outrighted to AAA.

...and he's declared free agency.