2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[donaldorc]

LOL hahahaha

[Philsmania]

As bad as Workman was for us in 2020, the 2020 Workman would have been an improvement over 2021 Kintzler.

Of course, with the Phillies luck, if they cut him, he'll end up back with the Marlins and rediscover his 2020 mojo and have some key shutdown innings against us down the stretch.

Truth be told, much was said last year that if the season was longer than sixty games, the bullpen probably would have eventually figured itself out. There are signs that that may now be happening...maybe. Neris has really been good. Coonrod has been good as has Alvarado. Brogdon has been ok...and, in fact, take away that one horrific game against the Giants, has been good (3.27 ERA, 1.027 WHIP). Suarez has been something of a revelation. Bradley, Kintzler and Hale remain the weak links, although Hale shouldn't be surprising. Ultimately, I imagine Kintzler and Hale will turn it around or be replaced. I doubt Bradley gets cut getting paid $6 million, though. There may be some signs that he is settling down. In his last four games, 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, but 5 BB and 1 K. At least we can say he hasn't been getting hit lately (he allowed 8 H in his first 6 IP) so maybe that's progress. If Bradley really does settle down and the first five guys keep it up, our bullpen just might be in pretty good shape.

[andyb]

Looks like DIdi is somewhat close from this update:
https://twitter.com/MattGelb/status/1402369064283119618

Girardi says he would use Williams at SS, though I am just guessing he does not anticipate him getting many starts there.

[zambonir]

Yeah, we need Bradley to figure it out (or to go back on the IL). Hale is what he is, it's just that he is one of three mop-up/long relievers with Moore and Anderson also occupying bullpen space.

I do think last year's bullpen would have levelled out some, especially with a few of the youngsters emerging (as Brogdon and Romero did). And it's certainly possible that Kintzler could come around but a lot of times these things tend to be year-to-year. Often relievers follow good years with bad ones because they pitched a lot, or at least piled up high-stress appearances, when things were going good. That could still be the case with Kintzler even with the short season. Given the unknowns of the past year plus any of these guys might turn it around suddenly, arm strength/velocity is just slow to return.

[LoneStarPhan]

It would be a real boost to get Bradley pitching well. Time on the IL may help Moore, Anderson, and Kintzler. Getting 2 of the 4 pitching well in August and September would be nice. It certainly could happen. Of course, they also could continue pitching like they have so far as Phillies.

I'm usually very happy to see the team retain a player who they have passed through waivers to clear a roster spot, but in the case of Kingery, they may have been better off if he had been claimed. If claimed, the full financial obligation would have been removed from the Phillies. Unless Kingery can regain his hitting form of several years ago, he is likely to continue to struggle to claim a roster spot in the majors and certainly will not be worth the escalating salary levels in his current contract.

[allentown]

To outright him, in a season which doesn't look like we're going to the playoffs, the Phillies must have decided that they'd rather be relieved of paying the rest of his contract than keep him. That likely means they've decided they can't fix him. That's a shame. It's fairly clear to me that they broke him.

[andyb]

I think it is clear they just knew he would pass through waivers because of his salary. Nothing more than that. I doubt they have given up on him but also would not have cried if they got out of the rest of his contract.

[LoneStarPhan]

I think the Phillies had a pretty good idea Kingery would not be claimed, but the reason is the same reason that I don't expect keeping him will turn out well. He has shown over a significant period of time that he just is lost as a hitter. Of course, I hope he gets back on track and returns to the majors as at least a valuable and productive utility player. He can happen.

[zambonir]

I'm still much more optimistic about Kingery tbh. His problems started in the second half of 2019 but I still consider everything that's happened since then to be a write-off due to the injuries and COVID. And even if you don't agree with that, he hasn't had nearly enough ABs (at any level) to work through any problems, let alone rebuild his swing and timing. The situation this season only exacerbated that further, with no AAA games, and then being forced to call him up.

That he may be overpaid for the next two years if he's merely an adequate major league regular or useful bench player is largely immaterial; it's a sunk cost, and also the price the Phillies paid to get the deal done, in a system where most players are underpaid in Years 1-3 (which even Kingery was, at least in Year 2).

I also think he'll still have trade value in the off-season, even if it's just as a piece of a bigger package. Phillies will have to pick up money but that's also true of their two other middle IFs. It's just unfortunate they can't even pencil him in as an option should they decide to trade Segura or move Bohm off 3B.

I also don't really blame the Phillies. It's been made clear that the changes to his swing were not their doing, and he was still a good player in the multi-tool role in 2019. That he eventually slumped makes him no different from Herrera or Franco (or every other player on the Phillies in 2019 for that matter) or Bohm right now, and those guys didn't play multiple positions or get jerked around by coaching and development.

Certainly in the bigger picture, the Phillies' attempt to mimic things that other teams did well without seeming to to know how or why those teams did those things well is and was a problem, and one that still continues.

[Sabin]

That's a shame. It's fairly clear to me that they broke him.

While I share the same thought, I also wonder why at some point he hasn't been able to revert back to the general approach he used the bulk of his baseball life. He's shown the ability to adjust and find success with the bat at every level, which led me to think (perhaps wrongly) that at some point the hitting 'instructors' would, like Moniak this spring, have him go back to using something that worked in the past.

If he's truly broken beyond repair, it truly is a shame.

[flyers19rw]

IMO, Mallee and Young messed up more than their fair share of players during their time as coaches here.

[zambonir]

But not really. Yeah, there was the Eflin thing. But most of the pitchers and hitters were the same as ever. And the ones that had great first halves in 2019 but poor second halves, you can't blame that on coaches (who do very little instruction after spring training anyway) without also praising them for the good parts.

And of course Eflin was also able to find his way back, and yet Pivetta and Velasquez weren't.

And nobody really got better in 2020 under the new guys. We just got better players (or much worse ones, in the bullpen's case). Hoskins has had some ebb and flow, and it's still not clear which version of him is the best one, but shouldn't we also blame Dillon for not fixing Kingery, or letting Bohm fall apart? Was Mallee a genius because Cutch was so fantastic in 2019 until he got hurt?

It's easy to point fingers at the players ("so-and-so stinks") and if you like the players - and many posters particularly do here if they are homegrown - even easier to blame the coach or manager. But in the end that approach only serves to paper over the larger organizational failures, something the Girardi era, and both the changes and non-changes to the coaching staff, seems to prove more than ever

[mdougherty12]

Article from 538 on Zack Wheeler:

Zack Wheeler Was Always The Next Big Thing. He’s Finally Put It All Together.

[zambonir]

The Phillies bullpen is somehow worse than the maligned 2020 unit in the 8th...

The manager wanted more defined roles for his relievers in 2021, and for the most part, Girardi has stuck to that. Still, he’s mixed and matched in the eighth inning depending on availability and matchups. José Alvarado has faced the most batters in the eighth. He’s been erratic since the beginning of May. On Tuesday, Girardi asked Alvarado to navigate the challenging top of Atlanta’s lineup in the seventh inning. The lefty succeeded.

That meant the eighth inning fell to Connor Brogdon, who had impressed in his previous outing, earning his first career save. Brogdon hasn’t always flashed the eye-popping fastball from the end of last season in 2021. He’s been hurt by home runs. On Tuesday, he allowed a homer to Austin Riley on a 95 mph fastball. It tied the game. After a walk and an infield single on a tough ball hit to Rhys Hoskins that a good first baseman might have turned into an out, Girardi’s hand was forced.

He asked Sam Coonrod to inherit the two runners, and that has not been a good proposition all season. Coonrod has now permitted eight of his 12 inherited runners to score. Only six relievers across baseball have done worse.

Goes on to say that they are really hurting without an effective Bradley or Kintzler, and that if they are buyers another setup man is probably a must.

Though I'm not sure they have an actual eighth inning problem per se - last night, for instance, Alvarado isn't needed in the 7th if we get a great Nola start, and the 4-5 starters make it hard on the bullpen twice a week.

[andyb]

I kind of hate articles like this which simplify questions to form a theory (Gelb usually resists this). It is based on the magic premise that the 8th inning is different than any other inning like the 7th, then bolstered by small sample size stats that by chance had a relatively good ERA in the 8th last year (which we all know was largely luck, probably bolstered by Neris doing well there when he was not closing).

The step back look at broader data really shows a better bullpen, but to get high velocity inexpensively (i.e. Alvarado and Coonrod) you are probably also getting pitchers with lousy control (Alvarado) or command (Coonrod). Add in those two field worse than I do and you realize the big issue is that each is only an average reliever when you add everything up. We think they should be better because their stuff is great. But there was also a reason they were available for a modest cost.

[Austinfan]

If you want a good bullpen, you have to homegrow at least half of it, FA acquisitions tend to be up and down.
We've had some bad luck, SD, Arano, we're due for some good luck.
One guy to watch is Paulino, injury issues but is still only 27 and throwing well in Lehigh.

[zambonir]

Yeah, and also, 6 losses when leading after 7 innings might not be good, but I'm pretty sure we've still lost 3 or 4 after 8 (at least if you include tie games), and several more in extras.

But there's no question they drew it up a certain way - Bradley for the 8th, Alvarado the lefty, Coonrod/Brogdon for the 7th and Kintzler as proven veteran depth (who was also supposed to be good with inherited runners). The two vets were supposed to help stabilize/compensate for any ups and downs from the three less proven/wild guys.

Coonrod and Alvarado are pretty much the same as homegrown players, still young and cheap, just had trade cost. All relievers are up-and-down, it's just more punitive when you're paying FA prices, and they may have overpaid for Bradley (or ignored red flags) given he was a non-tender. But at least it was a one-year deal.

[LegoDoom]

I only casually follow the draft and minor league threads, so please excuse my ignorance, but is Luke Williams the same as Lucas Williams who seemed to be a reach in 2015? I think his relative (mom?) even posted here. I did try to search, but the search tool here isn't the best (or I just don't know how to use it correctly).

Either way, he's had a good year and good for him.

[andyb]

Yeah. He was kind of a good athlete we drafted that was not on the radar of other clubs. Then we stuck him mostly at 3B even though he probably had the athleticism to be tried in the middle infield or center field rather than a position where more offense is required.

Then 5 years of disappointing offense where the only positive development was that the Phillies realized he could play all these defensive positions pretty well. And this year he started to hit for the first time. As you said, good for him. I just wonder if we all would have thought better of him if they had just let him play SS and 2B the first few years. It would have reduced the offensive expectations for him.

[California_Dreamin]

LegoDoom...Williams was chosen specifically because Pat Gillick specifically scouted him and waxed poetic about his athletic skills. Even here in SoCal most of us were unfamiliar with him but Gillick made a point after the draft of how he had personally seen him play and loved his athletic skills. This was no Trey McCall, a catcher infamously drafted in the early 70's, who absolutely NO ONE had heard of or scouted and was chosen as the rumor went by mistake when the Phils misspelled his name and mistaken took him over another player with a similar name.

The Phils, through Gillick, made it clear they thought Williams was an undiscovered diamond in the rough and if he never gets another hit or sets foot on another major league field will still have outperformed 90% of those drafted but never make it to the majors. Gillick often takes a lot of heat, undeserved in my book, for past Phillie missteps but those who know him best say his best skill is a scout's eye for talent...and in Williams he seems to have been correct.