2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[zambonir]

Stott in 2023 sounds right, and let's hope Martin ends up being a steal too, but who knows if either of them will even play SS, or if they'll be teammates with Nola and Hoskins for very long. Or be playing for Girardi, come to think of it.

The bottom line is still whether they can win anything from 2021-2023 vs. having a good organization from 2023 on and I'm not sure the current approach - still basically unchanged from the last two years - achieves either thing.

[bkox]

While we are talking defense... how is Stott defensively?

[andyb]

how is Stott defensively?

Probably seen as about the same as Maton. Average to below at SS. Good at 2B or 3B. They might improve, but only Garcia among the top prospects is seen as a good bet to be above average at SS. Martin could also be more of a CF by the time he gets near the majors.

[Sabin]

The bottom line is still whether they can win anything from 2021-2023 vs. having a good organization from 2023 on and I'm not sure the current approach - still basically unchanged from the last two years - achieves either thing.

A fair point and, IMO, underscores an ongoing issue due to the organization's continued practice of keeping too many chefs in its baseball kitchen.

[allentown]

The bottom line is still whether they can win anything from 2021-2023 vs. having a good organization from 2023 on and I'm not sure the current approach - still basically unchanged from the last two years - achieves either thing.

A fair point and, IMO, underscores an ongoing issue due to the organization's continued practice of keeping too many chefs in its baseball kitchen.

I think 21-23 is better shot than beyond 2023. We don't have a strong minor league list of prospects and JT, Harper,Wheeler less likely to be helping after 2023. Tough to count on pitchers 3 years out -- we have Wheeler, Nola, Eflin, Howard now. Stott and Maton can help, but they are not going to salvage the Phillies.

[zambonir]

I agree with that, but that's why they also have to get off the fence. Exceed the CBT. Trade away some future, though we still don't have enough to offer (Bryant fantasies may be moot for just that reason ). Otherwise it's 2013-2014 all over again, except without even winning anything before most of the pivot-to-rebuilding assets lose their value.

But surely that is what Dombrowski is still here to do. If they aren't contending in 2023 would he even stick around for the fourth year of his contract? He's already trying to defend his CF and SP decisions by basically saying his hands were tied once JT and Didi were the top priorities (and by the time they were signed, it's not like there were other options).

[fish]

D

I agree with that, but that's why they also have to get off the fence. Exceed the CBT. Trade away some future, though we still don't have enough to offer (

I think I’m ready for another rebuild. I don’t see the path for this team to fix its problems. This team is neither fun or interesting. It’s not growing, just stagnating. If the season ended today they’d have the 12th pick next year- I’m back to finding that consolation in losses.

[zambonir]

I certainly see that POV as well, just don't think they have the stomach - or the front office/manager - for it.

Seems like a milllion years ago that it was reported they were listening on Wheeler, and planned to cut payroll.

[Taudawg]

It's early to be considering a rebuild and I don't believe Dombrowski will be the guy to facilitate one. At 23-25 they are only 1.5 games out of first.

If things don't look better in July, I'm sure they'll make some moves, but with 2022 in mind. They can improve the defense in 2022 by moving Bohm to first (where he grades out fairly well) and Hoskins to DH. Maybe trade Hoskins? That move opens lots of options - Segura back to 3b, Didi to 2b, sign a glove first SS, etc.. just one option. The next CBA might change everything. If they institute shift rules or other new rules, who knows.

[Philsmania]

I certainly see that POV as well, just don't think they have the stomach - or the front office/manager - for it.

Seems like a milllion years ago that it was reported they were listening on Wheeler, and planned to cut payroll.

I can see both points of view as well but, realistically, 2021-22 is the last chance to try to wring something out of what little we built. By 2023, we need to be starting over. Even though we supposedly just recently came out of a rebuild, we already have a team that is on the older side. Like 1993, we have some veteran talent. But, it seems like we have more holes to fill and, don't forget, we had a tremendous amount of good fortune in 1993, namely a bunch of older, injury-prone guys all staying healthy and everyone playing to their potential. Hoping for luck is not a good strategy.

[David_Criss]

Realmuto, Gregorius are on the IL and Harper is not 100% cannot be the only reason this team is so hard to watch these days. Nola looks a little off, too. The lack of offensive depth is well documented. Girardi said this morning it isn't early, but it isn't late. That being said, I ask when will something happen? There has to be a wake up call, a trade, a demotion - SOMETHING.
I think we are seeing why Kintzler and Joyce were able to be had for a minor league deal.

[Philsmania]

Realmuto, Gregorius are on the IL and Harper is not 100% cannot be the only reason this team is so hard to watch these days. Nola looks a little off, too. The lack of offensive depth is well documented. Girardi said this morning it isn't early, but it isn't late. That being said, I ask when will something happen? There has to be a wake up call, a trade, a demotion - SOMETHING.
I think we are seeing why Kintzler and Joyce were able to be had for a minor league deal.

Realmuto's situation seems to be more serious than they are telling us or they initially thought. He's gone from not needing to go on the IL to his return date TBD.

Looking over Nola's career numbers, he is usually pretty good in April, very good in May, swoons a bit in June, downright great in July and August before faceplanting in September. Maybe his swoon has come a bit early this year.

Harper's always been a guy who goes all out and that takes a toll on the body. One thing that made me reluctant about signing him was that he only averaged 130 games played per season with the Nationals, meaning that, on average, he missed a month of the season. As he gets older, that average will only rise.

[flyers19rw]

Harper's injuries come from playing the game. He is in superb shape. Nothing there for him about slacking off. The same is true for Realmuto . Didi is a bit of another story since the HBP on his elbow aggravated a past problem (TJ surgery). With this trio, one can't blame the player for their issues. Just a lot of misfortune.
The bothersome part of these injuries has been the inability of the other players on the club to pick up some of the slack. No one expects the rest of the club to kick in the offense that the injured trio provided. However it isn't too much to expect to see them play fundamentally sound baseball such as catching the ball; throwing it to the correct place; being smart on the base paths; etc. Usually bench players are guys that don't hit that well but are fundamentally sound in the basics of the game. Its not so with a few of these guys.

[zambonir]

I don't think Dombrowski came here to rebuild either, but did he come here to tread water? Simply putting last year's 28-32 team back together with a different bullpen and two bargain-bin SPs has resulted in... go figure, a 23-25 team. The state of the NL East is an opportunity, but you gotta go for it, and the same is going to be true in 2022 (even if you move all those parts around they need a LF and a SS and a CF (unless it's Herrera) and while trading Hoskins is a consideration, can't count on Didi and Segura next year either, especially not at 3B in Jean's case). Also gotta re-sign or replace Hector and from the looks of things this year, want a solid pitcher to slot in ahead of Howard at #5.

I absolutely think they should go for it, but if they don't go for it, two more seasons of just-below .500 ball would get them nothing. Not entertainment, not fans in the stands, not promising young players.

[bkox]

Realmuto's situation seems to be more serious than they are telling us or they initially thought. He's gone from not needing to go on the IL to his return date TBD.

broadcast last night showed Realmute out making throws to 2nd base before the game. They said he wont come off the IL until hes pain free.

Didi is a bit of another story since the HBP on his elbow aggravated a past problem (TJ surgery).

they also said his kidney issue causing things to be worse. He swells up quickly

[bkox]

deadline trades require prospects. Do we have the prospects to beat out other teams to even add big name(s)?

[andyb]

Only if we pick up lots of salary. Players with expiring contracts like Bryant will be expensive. Could a deal built around Stott get a decent return? Not sure.

[bkox]

Could a deal built around Stott get a decent return? Not sure.

Is it worth giving up Stott?

[andyb]

Probably yes if they don't think he profiles as a shortstop long term. On the one hand we need to develop inexpensive young regulars. But on the other hand you probably can sign free agents as good or better than Stott for midlevel money. Story would be the example here.

It is always better to trade prospects that are hot if you think that they will regress to the mean as they get promoted. Stott's offense looks great in Jersey Shore especially with the park there. But he also could have easily started at a tougher level (AA) to be closer to where a good prospect his age should be. Is his value elevated because of his strong start? That is the type of prospect to trade (Randolph and Falter too, though they have less value obviously).

I protect Abel because of upside. Is there anyone else in the entire system though who should be off limits?

[fish]

Only if we pick up lots of salary. Players with expiring contracts like Bryant will be expensive. Could a deal built around Stott get a decent return? Not sure.

Getting rid of guys is just as important as adding guys at this point, and their money isn't going anywhere. McCutcheon has to be replaced this year. Odubel may hold it together this year but he'll need to be replaced next year. Seguera is a liability that needs to go. Bohm needs to move to first. If he moves to first then Hoskins's bat would need to be replaced, Gregorious is big question who is aptly replaced by Maton for the moment. Overall depth is missing.

Those problems aren't going away by adding a guy or two, they'd have to trade in half the cards in their hand to hope to get back more in return to fill the holes they started with.