2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion

[andyb]

Though many might also say Bohm should be the Cutch successor in LF, especially in a world where Hoskins is around. All that talk about improved 3B defense seems like it was "happy announcer talk" to me. His advanced metrics are in the same mediocre range as last year and the eye test has him continuing to double clutch virtually every ball hit to him. He is just not a smooth athlete over there and while he might improve a bit, this could be like Franco where he will always be a negative at 3B.

[bkox]

Do the Phillies have the players to even make any significant deadline deals?

[Austinfan]

That will probably wait a year or two, depending on Stott, Garcia, etc.
If you move Bohm, it would be to move Didi and get a better fielding SS or move Segura to let Kingery return to 2B.

[andyb]

Though remember if Bohm goes to LF, we have $20 million to spend on an infielder if Kingery can't recover and Stott is not ready. The key really is plugging Bohm's low cost bat in the lineup somewhere. The reality is our offensive prospects are not good enough to count on much the next couple of years. We might also just have to live with Didi's defense at SS as his bat would not stand out at 3B.

[zambonir]

A good point about Bohm and LF, especially with Haseley now off the table as anything other than a hopeful bench option.

For sure I still hope they get out from under either Didi or Segura next year, and I still think they'll consider spending that Cutch money on a SS. The guy who just started his first game at Jersey Shore is not a factor before 2023 IMO.

Regarding deadline deals, let's just hope the team is playing well enough to make it a consideration.

And let's also hope Bohm doesn't turn into Franco. Ridiculous as that notion seems, I'm sure it felt equally ridiculous when Maikel only had 200 ABs. (And yes, Franco has survived to be a decent player on bad low-budget teams, but we need more than that from Bohm, especially if he doesn't stay at 3B).

[zambonir]

Well, Kingery's back anyway, and Moniak too.

Matt Gelb: The Phillies placed two outfielders on the... - The Athletic

[andyb]

Joyce sounds like a day to day injury they just could not have with Harper also day to day. Kingery probably plays against LHP. Mix and match with Herrera first against RHP in CF (at least tonight). I wonder if Vierling could get a quick promotion to LHV. He played a great deal in major league camp and the alternate site, so he may be ready for the jump.

Not an OF, but Ruben Tejada signed to AAA. Barely played in the majors since 2017. Light-hitting but solid defensively.

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1390024882394734597

[zambonir]

They might keep Torreyes down there for a while just to have the 40-man spot. He still gets paid.

[Austinfan]

Bohm is nothing like Franco as a hitter.

You could see the flaws in Franco's approach to hitting, and he never really corrected them, pull happy and not very disciplined, as pitchers learned his weaknesses, they exploited them.

Bohm hits with power to all fields, he's still learning to deal with ML pitching, but doesn't have an obvious weakness outside of inexperience.

[andyb]

The comparison was their mediocre defense that will never be better than below average.

[zambonir]

Yeah, I agree that Bohm's core hitting ability suggests a much better outcome, but until this sophomore slump - which, to be fair, is really just a mid-season rookie year slump in terms of actual games played - is over we can't just assume he's an All-Star, or even a sure thing starting major leaguer for years to come. Either way, as a 3B he has to hit a high offensive bar and the same is true if he moves to 1B or LF.

We just need to start producing All-Stars rather than solid line-up pieces. Not a million of them, just one!

[bkox]

Archie Bradley said he expects to be back with the Phillies when team returns from road trip on May 18. He’s been on the injured list with an oblique injury since April 11.

— Matt Breen ( @matt_breen ) May 6, 2021

[andyb]

Bohm probably needed that half season at AAA that he did not get. Now, stepping back for a moment, we actually don't know how good a hitter Bohm will be. His BB rate has dropped and his K rate has increased this year. It is not a horrible ratio, but it is also not a great trend as it has not been accompanied by more power. Bohm actually does not have more than 45-50 game power at the moment. He has 7 HRs in 301 plate appearances and it is not as if they are all doubles. He hits lots of singles to the opposite field also.

Now his exit velocity numbers are good and his BABIP is low, suggesting he has had bad luck this year. But that does not change the bad K rate. I think Bohm has the potential to be a very good offensive player. But there is also the chance that he is merely good (say 800 OPS consistently) in an era where that coupled with below average defense leads to a player in the 1-2 WAR range. He has at least close to average speed and a good arm, so the defense might be average in LF if they ever made that switch. Nick Castellanos is a pretty good hitter, but for his career he has 10.5 WAR or roughly 1.5 per full season. That might be Bohm unless he can find another level as a hitter that we have not really seen yet.

[David_Criss]

What am I missing? Looks like the Phillies list 42 players on their 40-man, with Seranthony being on the 60-day so 41.
Jankowski bats lefthanded, but is a great outfield glove, but alas the 40-man issues.

40-Man Roster

[andyb]

They have exemptions for Muzziotti (visa issues, has not reported yet), Haseley (personal leave), and Torreyes (COVID). So they technically can have 44 players on the roster now though the Torreyes exemption will disappear quickly. Technically it may not even exist if the Phillies still have call-up options on the 40.

Of course, whenever they move on from Herrera and Torreyes as seems likely, that is 2 more 40-man spots to play with if they wanted someone like Jankowski. Hard to believe they could call him up without designating Herrera since they play the same position and are both left-handed.

[bkox]

In their last 4 wins, all by 1 run, the Phils have held a multi-run lead by the end of the 3rd inning

Their combined line from the 4th inning on in those last 4 wins: .079/.147/.095, 28 K in 70 PA

— Paul ( @paul_boye ) May 6, 2021

[David_Criss]

Had forgotten Torreyes was COVID. I don't see them moving on from Herrera while Harper is banged up and Joyce and Quinn are on the shelf.

My guess is Segura will be activated as soon as today and Romero will be optioned.

Then like you said, fairly soon, they will either have to designate Torreyes or recall him from his rehab and designate someone, but who? Hale?, Kintzler? With Maton hitting keeping Torreyes is not as important as it was a few weeks ago, but I bet we see Kingery optioned and someone designated in favor of Torreyes.

After that Bradley, Quinn and Joyce will be ready for rehab and then activated in favor of Hale/Romero/Kingery/Moniak/DLS is my guesses

Who knows DD could be actively working on a trade for a 5th starter or centerfielder or bullpen upgrade.

[bkox]

After that Bradley, Quinn and Joyce will be ready for rehab and then activated in favor of Hale/Romero/Kingery/Moniak/DLS is my guesses

Who knows DD could be actively working on a trade for a 5th starter or centerfielder or bullpen upgrade.

In this age of baseball you have to assume that as we get some pieces back, at least one or two others will need an IL assignment.

[andyb]

Optioning Romero probably depends on how they feel about Moore coming in during the middle of the inning to face a lefty. I always thought JoJo needed a half season of AAA to really learn how to be a reliever so he could focus on maintaining velocity across outings and command which slips at times.

I have no idea how they felt about De Los Santos. His stuff is better this year than last. Will they actually trust him with 7th inning situations where he is not the only option? I don't know, but potentially he has earned his spot.

I think Herrera has a shorter leash than you do. Obviously with Harper hobbled (the Joyce move might have been to get a healthy body in there when the team was short because of Harper's day to day injury), you don't make a snap decision. Playing Miller in the OF more means Maton is more needed in the infield so I think that helps him. All this stuff is so fluid and all these options are so flawed, that it is really hard to predict what DD should do. You are right that he has to be thinking trade. Too bad the Royals are off to a good start because Michael A. Taylor would be perfect for this team.

[bkox]

LIke I said regarding the IL....

JoJo Romero's velocity was down last night. Now he's on the IL with a left elbow strain. Ranger Suarez is back in the majors.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) May 6, 2021