2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[bkeich]

The best thing for the Phillies is to go with scrubs like Torres, Galvis and MIller this season, and let the kids play everyday in LHV, most aren't that far away and if you waste this season, they won't be ready next year.

C: Marchan
1B: Hall
2B: Maton, Gamboa (too bad about Brito)
SS: Williams, Guthrie
3B: Stott (when he's promoted)
LF: Randolph
CF: Haseley, Vierling
RF: Moniak

Give this group time to develop and they can start moving out some salary the next couple years at the ML level.

I realize this wasnt the point of this post, but it really emphasizes to me just how bad our minor leagues are at the moment. There is almost nothing in the pipeline for the next 2 years, Stott and a bunch of hopeful dreams and some guys that have more or less proven that they are AAAA players. If you subtract Stott and possibly Marchan I doubt the rest will total 0.0 WAR in their careers at the ML level.

I hope the next wave of the "building" for the future is better, this wave is almost laughably bad.

[zambonir]

Yeah, AF has been posting lists like that every year for as long as I can remember. They are always seriously glass half-full, as if no AAA player is going to fail and no veterans will be acquired via trade, but this is a particularly bad glass.

But even the most negative of us, pre-Cutch and Harper and Segura, probably still dreamed on a 2020 line-up that was 100% homegrown in the OF (Randolph/Haseley/Moniak) and up the middle (Crawford/Kingery, and Alfaro - heck even Knapp was a pretty strong prospect).

I seriously doubt either Haseley or Moniak are starting OFs for us next year. One of them off the bench (but possibly in LF more than CF).

[andyb]

I think there is a good chance we might start a homegrown player in the OF next year. It might be Bohm though. Probably depends on what they do with the Cutch option, but Bohm in LF might make sense in a "put dollars elsewhere" type of strategy.

[zambonir]

Yeah, agreed on Bohm. I'm guessing they walk away from the Cutch option unless both sides want to tear it up and just do a new deal. Gonna be a cold and slow free agent market - completely frozen, even once we hit December 1. But ultimately they will have to acquire a SS and CF. Though who knows what they do with Didi and Galvis and 3B/DH options in general.

Rotation is probably set except for depth unless they get creative (i.e. trade Eflin or even Nola). Plenty of money to spend on bullpen just from the expiring contracts (including this year's excesss starters combined). Maybe even re-sign one or two of the current crop (yes, even Hector. Not sure I'd want Kennedy at his age and Bradley's velo still an issue).

[andyb]

I could easily see them keeping Galvis while also hoping Stott is ready to start in 2023 (post-Didi and Segura so there will be openings with Stott most likely at 2B).

There are lots of SS options but I am not sure they will be chomping at the bit to spend lots of money there. Seager and Correa are really young but will take lots of years and money.

[bkox]

But ultimately they will have to acquire a SS and CF

Didi is signed for next year for 15.25M. Will we bench him, trade him, or release him?

[andyb]

3B could be open for Didi. It is not a move a contending team would take of course. Just easier to see his offense bouncing back a bit as opposed to his defense at SS.

[zambonir]

Like I said in next post 3B or DH or both. But a trade would be nice. Or they could try to sell high on Segura and play Didi at 2B.

Unless they trade for Buxton (who would still cost) or a similar CF, or sign a FA LF, I think they end up signing a SS simply because that is where they can get an impact FA. With Cutch and Herrera both off the books and Didi and Segura coming off in 2023 they have the $.

Can't rule out Bohm being traded either I suppose. Like, what if they traded for Buxton and also signed Kris Bryant to play LF? Then muddle through with Didi/Galvis (or Williams/Maton).

It probably won't be a boring off-season, when the moves finally come.

[bkox]

DIdi's 2021 looks alot like his 2019 in terms of offense.. Putting him at 3B/DH and hoping for him to rebound offensively seems risky. Especially DH when we have Hoskins, Bohm, Harper and Realmuto who all should be rotating there.

If you take the last 3 years combined, Freddy Galvis has out performed Didi on offense.. and I assume on defense. I really wish they had done a buyout on that Didi contract

[Philsmania]

Earlier this year, it looked like declining Cutch's option was a no-brainer but then he got hot and it looked like he could be had at a discount but now it looks like we should decline it again. Same scenario unfolded with Herrera. He went from dead man walking to "pick up that option" to "eh, probably don't". If we decline both of them, we have a whopping $54 million coming off the books this offseason.

$16 million combined with Anderson, Moore, Bradley and Kintzler
$20 million with McCutchen
$4 million with Neris
$4 million with Velasquez
$10 million with Herrera

Of course, that would give us holes to fill in LF & CF. Bohm could fill LF (just get him out of the infield) but that would give us a hole at third. Would signing Harper's buddy Bryant make sense with that much money available? Or, do we spread the money around more?

What to do about Didi? Hope for a rebound or trade him for $15 million worth of someone else's bad contract(s) spread out over more seasons?

[bkox]

Hoskins is arb eligible and I would guess doubles his salary of 4.8M this year. So thats $5M or so
Eflin is arb eligible. Gotta assume a couple more million than this season
Cutch has a 3M buyout that will count against the cap
Odubel has a 2.5M buyout

So all that is about 12M of that $54M. And you have to replace Neris and Bradley who have actually been very good. Kennedy is gone too.. Alvarado is arb eligible.

So some of that money is needed to build a bullpen. Is our rotation set? Wheeler, Eflin, Nola,, Gibson, Ranger? Falter the backup when someone is hurt?

[zambonir]

I just think with Didi you're either paying $10 million for him to play somewhere else (though maybe you get a prospect?) or paying him $15 million to be on the bench. I do not think he would be the everyday 3B, or DH more than 20 times. He'd be a super-sub. But if you do sign a surefire everyday SS you probably can't bring back Galvis (and we haven't even seen him play an inning yet).

I don't think you decline Cutch and Herrera's options because of their performance, per se, I just think they are above market value (and replaceable).

Also, there is likely going to be an effort to improve the defense, which can only be done by changing personnel. Right now even our two best defensive players (Harper and Realmuto) are likely moving in the wrong direction. Galvis doesn't really improve it significantly either (he just improves the current team because it's so bad, much as Torreyes actually might be slight upgrade over Bohm). Haseley or Moniak as starting CF likely doesn't improve it (or look good at the plate).

If they move on from Didi but don't play in the Correa/Seager market or bring back Freddy Simmons and Semien will also be out there.

[bkox]

Semien will also be out there.

Marcus Semien is #4 overall in WAR this year. (behind Wheeler, Muncy and WADE MILEY???). hes going to be VERY expensive

[bkox]

The Phillies are going to send Zach Eflin to Reading on Saturday for a minor-league rehab. It’s possible they bring him back to the majors five days after that. We’ll see.

— Matt Gelb ( @MattGelb ) August 19, 2021

[andyb]

Seager and Correa are going to be two fascinating free agents to predict. Seager having an off year but is really young. And does he stay at SS long term? Correa on the other having a great year, but is coming off several injury filled years and his sprint speed is also down to the point where his remaining at SS long term is in question. Each could have been a $300 million players, but these questions might bring the contract down closer to $200 million.

Buxton is intriguing to me though as I think he will be a CF for most of a long contract (if he stays healthy). He will need to be paid at a rate more than his previous production, but less than his potential. I really think the Phillies are interested in him and just want to move on from all the mediocre CFs of 2021.

[bkox]

Buxton is intriguing to me though as I think he will be a CF for most of a long contract (if he stays healthy). He will need to be paid at a rate more than his previous production, but less than his potential. I really think the Phillies are interested in him and just want to move on from all the mediocre CFs of 2021.

Buxton isnt a free agent this year though. MN's asking price was apparently Abel and Stott and 3 others..

[andyb]

That price will come down, especially if he does not play much the rest of the year. MN will want to move his salary off the books too potentially.

[zambonir]

I doubt Semien will be more expensive than Seager or Correa, he is older - y'know, like, Didi's age - and does not have the overall track record either. Had he not cratered in 2019 he would have gotta a three-four year deal already I'm sure.

And I assume is Andy is assuming the Phillies don't trade for Buxton without being able to extend him, which is easier to do in the off-season than at the deadline. Signing All-Star Roman Quinn is kind of terrifying though.

Regardless, SS should be a buyer's market. Tons of inventory, and teams won't be throwing money around. Maybe it all goes crazy if there's not a labor stoppage, but hard to think there won't be one. And if the players do win the batttle to get paid more early, and to have a salary floor, that will certainly come out of the older free agent contracts.

[Austinfan]

While that LHV lineup has question marks, I'd go back and look at the last few years when that lineup was mostly a bunch of AAAA guys at best. This is an improvement, at least these guys have the potential to surprise. Problem is Reading now looks like a total wasteland as far as position players. Pitching is opposite, ML team has stripped anyone who can pitch off Lehigh, but Reading has the promising arms.

[andyb]

Reading may be worse, but Stott and Ortiz probably have a higher ceiling than anyone in the offense at LHV where Moniak is probably highest ceiling offensive player. Hey, it is great that we can save money by producing a few young players that might contribute at a little above replacement level, but the other side of the coin is that players of that caliber (Torreyes, Jankowski) are inexpensively found.