2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[bkox]

we should send down a bunch of relievers after tomorrow game and bring up Williams and Maton and Moniak and Marchan to play Sunday. Unless They prefer to stay in LHV for the last day of the tourney

[zambonir]

I'm sure there's an argument for just leaving them in place to finish up the LV season. For the fans, players and coaching staff in Allentown too, since it's not like they can easily call up guys from AA or Florida (in fact, if COVID protocols are still in place they literally can't).

I guess the argument for pursuing platoon advantages and sticking with his vets (however misguidedly) is that Girardi desperately wants a winning season.

[andyb]

Big question now is Wheeler. Kind of sad we don't even have a young starter to look at instead (at least, not one who probably isn't already throwing tomorrow).

Well we have Crouse though he probably gets the bullpen game start Saturday and I just don't think you could count on innings from Medina and Falter at this point. Crouse in a lower pressure game might be more interesting to look at.

[andyb]

I am also a tiny bit curious as to whether Bryce wants to play out the weekend. He might actually need a good stretch to win the MVP but imagine it is completely up to him. Maybe he sits early tomorrow against Luzardo but tries to finish strong on Sunday.

[flyers19rw]

Since he had immigration issues this year, wouldn’t it be smarter to have him a friendlier place than Venezuela?

[andyb]

There are agreements between the home countries that clubs there draft and control the rights of their native players. Ortiz in the AFL actually requires special permission that is not always granted. The DSL is a more advanced league so they probably could not guarantee Ortiz playing time. But I bet a Venezuelan team could guarantee Muzziotti enough playing time to make it worth it to play there.

In general players also don't play in other countries' leagues because their rights are controlled by some team in their home country. Now players get out of these rights all the time. There just is not much reason too here and the Phillies still probably have a decent network of coaches in VZ since the majority of our LA signings come from there.

[zambonir]

The kid may also still want to be back in his home country, regardless of the situation. And sending him to the DR wouldn't solve any potential future immigration issues either. Only way to avoid that would be to not let him leave the US again.

[bigegypt0417]

Why is Vierling not playing? Is Girardi that anti-rookie?

[zambonir]

Like Andy said he'll probably face the lefties, but it seems to me you want to see what he and Bohm can do from both sides of the plate, not pursue marginal advantages trying to get win 82.

[bkox]

Workhorse Zack Wheeler's season over for Phillies, Sunday's start TBA

[jimbomill]

I think Austin Riley is a dark horse in the MVP

His supporting cast was so much better, I still give the nod to Harper.

[andyb]

I think it is between Harper and Soto now and it is really close. Bryce has more power and slightly better OPS. Soto has better defensive metrics and OBP and counting stats (mainly because Bryce missed a stretch on the IL plus the 2 weeks before that where he should have been on the IL.

Last night helped. This really could be decided by the best finish between the two.

[California_Dreamin]

Harper's gonna win this and the final two games won't matter at all, I wouldn't be surprised if Harper sat both of them. Bryce Harper carried this team to meaningful games into the final week of the season, literally carried them. Phillies history will be very good to Bryce Harper when people look into the rear view mirror and study his 2021 season. I suspect it will end up being the best individual season of his Phillie career, though he will still be very good for the next few years and might still taste playoff baseball at some point.

There are more than a few really BIG baseball fans that I know who look at the Phillies lineup daily and have NO idea who some of these players are. Bryce Harper just put together a 2nd half for the ages, one that rivals Schmidt's 1980 or Howard's 2006. He was that good.

He wins the MVP and I don't think it will be particularly close. Soto was great on a team that was lousy and finished either last or next to last. Harper was great on a team that was lousy and yet played meaningful games into the final week of the season.

[Austinfan]

This team could have a bright future if they can figure out player development, i refuse to believe you can't get 2-3 solid starters out of five 1st rd picks, Randolph, Moniak, Haseley, Bohm, Stott - none of whom was a serious reach (maybe Randolph but still 1st rd talent). Or their $4M Latin outfielder (when you pay that much, that's equivalent to a top 1st rd pick). And how does a 5th rd pick (Vierling) out play them? And Maton (7th) and Williams (3rd). I can accept their struggles with RPs, b/c these guys are always an adventure. But not the failure to produce starting players from high draft capital.

[allentown]

This is all true and it illustrates what a failed organization the Phillies have been since 2008. In Wheeler and Harper, we have the best-performing expensive FA duo. Add in Realmuto, who has provided 3.5 WAR and our top 3 FA signings have added a whopping 15 rWAR this season. At least our top management got those 3 big decisions right. Didi's contract was a mistake and it was a mistake to allow Girardi to continue having his security blanket, but... the big problem is what it has been for the past decade plus: an inability to scout and develop amateur talent; the inability to get the big $ #1 and #2 round draft picks and the biggest $ international signings right; the inability to develop talent; the continue attempts to pound round pegs into square holes after changing their philosophy on what they seek in a hitter or pitcher. We are going nowhere until those problems are fixed. This year marks the best that we can expect from an over-reliance upon FA players, while failing to grow a supporting cast. Our major FAs have been worth it, but can't paper over the many flaws of a failed organization. We can hope that the current crop of baseball professionals leading and within the scouting and development staff are up to the job, but how many times have we had that hope over the past decade plus. Part is ownership. Phillies ownership has never seemed to believe (since the Ruly days) that the cost of signing and developing premium young talent was worth the cost. Giles was the worst in this regard, but despite an increased willingness to spend on MLB player salaries, I still see precious little evidence that Middleton and company are pushing young talent acquisition and development -- perhaps they lack the patience for that, but by not doing so, they have stymied the current push. Can they learn?

[allentown]

. And how does a 5th rd pick (Vierling) out play them? And Maton (7th) and Williams (3rd). I can accept their struggles with RPs, b/c these guys are always an adventure. But not the failure to produce starting players from high draft capital

Domonic Brown and other later round (largely HS) OF draftees may not have made it as MLB players, but they outplayed the 1st and 2nd round OFs we drafted in that period. To me this screams that the scouts can pick guys who are at least plus for their draft round, but that with the primo picks, where the higher ups get involved in the choice, we fail, because the higher ups lack the ability to choose the right guy and the humility to listen to the scouts who have that ability. When you consistently fail on your top $ (draft and international) choices, the problem must be at the top, as it is with Jeff Lurie sticking his finger in the pie to push the selection of inferior wide receivers who catch his eye. This disfunction runs so deep that I am hesitant to allow myself to trust that it has finally been fixed.

[zambonir]

To me this screams that the scouts can pick guys who are at least plus for their draft round, but that with the primo picks, where the higher ups get involved in the choice, we fail, because the higher ups lack the ability to choose the right guy and the humility to listen to the scouts who have that ability. When you consistently fail on your top $ (draft and international) choices, the problem must be at the top, as it is with Jeff Lurie sticking his finger in the pie to push the selection of inferior wide receivers who catch his eye. This disfunction runs so deep that I am hesitant to allow myself to trust that it has finally been fixed.

I think this both overcomplicates and oversimplifies it though. When Jeff Luhnow or Andrew Friedman or Theo Epstein get their top picks right is it because they listen to the scouts, hire better scouts, or are better judges of talent (or implementers of analytics) themselves?

And for all of Middleton's flaws/similarities, he's not actually meddling in the draft. The higher-ups who botched these drafts are Gillick, Amaro, Wolver, Almaraz, Klentak (I doubt Macphail even paid attention). It's not unreasonable for them to be involved, and they all personally scout too. I doubt they have actually overruled local scouts or cross-checkers with their picks though. Guys like Kingery or Moniak or Haseley probably had everyone's thumbs-up.

They just need better everything. But the fact that mid and low round picks sometimes out play high round picks is just a thing that happens all the time, to all teams. I seriously doubt the Phillies have actually been better at developing 3rd-20th rounders than other teams; they have probably failed at that just as much if not more as with the 1st and 2nds.

[Austinfan]

However, I don't think any of our five 1st rd picks was a bad pick, given what we knew at the time. Randolph was a first rate HS hitter (though overdrafted due to lack of a position), Moniak was an elite HS hitter, Bohm, Stott, Haseley college players with strong track records. Why did Kingery regress so badly, or Knapp? In this case, I have to think it was less scouting than player development. Ortiz was scouting, overrating a 16 year old being physically mature (which meant his upside was limited). The only overperformers seem to be LA pitchers who add velocity as they mature, which is more scouting than player development (finding low cost upside guys and stock up on them).

Now I don't mind upside gambles like Simmons and Baylor after the first couple rounds. In fact, that now seems to be the organization philosophy which I agree, outside of maybe the first 10 or so picks, where you hate to whiff, go for upside over a floor which is maybe a ML bench player - bench players are fungible.

[bkox]

J.T. optimistic about shoulder, outlook for '22

[bkox]

Phillies Recall Seranthony Dominguez, Place Connor Brogdon On 10-Day Injured List

If both Seranthony and Dohy get into a game this weekend, the Phillies will set a new club record for pitchers used in a season