2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[bkox]

Of the 10 Phillies with the most plate appearances in September, Bryce Harper's hit .303/.452/.663 and the other 9 hit a combined .235/.298/.393

Brad Miller the only one with an OPS over .800

15 of those 27 games were against the Orioles, Pirates, Rockies, Cubs and Nationals

— Corey Seidman ( @CSeidmanNBCS ) October 1, 2021

[andyb]

They really did not solve any of their big lineup problems at the deadline. They got Galvis to help at SS/3B but he has never been that good an offensive player and we kind of got what we expected (662 OPS). They played Torreyes way too much and did not sit Didi as much as they should have against LHP. The one potential offensive improvement there was in the minors (Bohm). At 1B Miller was an adequate fill-in and Vierling helped in his small sample (though note his 4/18 BB/K ratio and 690 AAA OPS - he is not more than a bench player for 2022), but losing Miller from the bench hurt there. Nobody to give Bryce a day off any more or to platoon with Cutch.

People here should be happy with the strategy though. We did not want the Phillies to trade major prospects at the deadline and they didn't. We did not think the team even with an addition or two was good enough to advance in the playoffs. So we mostly endorsed this "do little" strategy at the deadline. I wish they could have used their financial resources more, but we should not be surprised by how this played out.

[Austinfan]

Looking at Fansgraph team data:

Worst fielders, Cutch, Hoskins, Miller, Harper, Herrera, Janikowsi (working off Def value)
Realmoto was top level, Torreyes, Didi were positive.
Bohm actually wasn't much of a fielding liability, but his hitting was below replacement level.

So if Didi's elbow is better you could live with Bohm - Didi - Segura to start the season, Torreyes on the bench.
Bring in a veteran backup catcher, RH LF and CF?
Biggest problems are 1B, LF and CF, need a CF who's at least average, and a LF who isn't a black hole defensively, if there's no DH guess you live with Hoskins for now. Maybe Kingery in CF?

Marchan - Maton - Williams - Stott - Haseley - Moniak - Randloph in AAA, Muzzotti and Ortiz at Reading to start the season. Let them work their way back to Philly.

[bkox]

Didi were positive.

huh? If Didi was positive then I dont believe in the way they figure out that stat.

Fielding bible has Didi at Negative 10 Defensive runs saved. Tied for 20th worst in all of MLB.

[andyb]

Baseball Reference WAR seems to make more sense compared to the eye test. This page has a Team Player Value section where you can sort by oWAR and dWAR.

2021 Philadelphia Phillies Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

Best defenders were Segura (+0.6), Torreyes (+0.4), Realmuto (+0.3), Herrera (+0.3), Quinn (+0.3), and Marchan (+0.2).

Worst were Hoskins (-1.3), Harper (-1.3), Bohm (-1.2), Cutch (-1.2), Miller (-1.0), Gregorius (-0.8), Knapp (-0.5).

Realmuto did have issues throwing all year and was banged up. Marchan was clearly better than him defensively at the end. Didi lost range but still has a good arm. He might have improved at the end of the year. Bohm has a double clutch throwing and below average range. Hoskins has never been much good anywhere. Cutch clearly has lost range too.

Harper did not have a great year defensively. Remember the stretch early in the year when he lost 2 fly balls right at him? I think he got a little wall shy too except in the last 40 games. He can improve on that, doing essentially what he did his first year here.

Just a bad defensive team and the errors might be the least important part of that.

[Austinfan]

Those numbers do make more sense.
CF would help, Herrera lost a lot of range and that didn't help with two subpar corner OFs.
Bohm could improve, but Didi has lost range, so even with a better elbow he's probably going to be subpar at SS.
Don't know what you do with Hoskins without a DH.

[zambonir]

Knowing how the voters think, I am guessing going 0 for Atlanta killed Bryce's chances.

I feel like a good chunk of the younger voters will still look at the whole picture, but those same voters will also be willing to pick Soto or Tatis.

If Riley played for LA, SF or Milwaukee he'd probably run away with it. Also, his 2019-2020 is not unlike Alec Bohm's 2020-2021, no? (Except Bohm was better his first year.)

[andyb]

CF would help, Herrera lost a lot of range and that didn't help with two subpar corner OFs.

I wonder if the Phillies should sign more of a corner OF and then push the kids to play CF. I think Muzziotti is closer than one would assume from his season. Remember that he would have been in AA in 2020 and AAA this year in a normal progression. He has played really well in his limited appearances with a 7/9 BB/K ratio which suggests he is not overmatched at the plate. I just wonder if he could be ready in the second half of next year and put up a 650 OPS with enough defense to make him a 2+ WAR player. He really could be an Inciarte type player and I think he is almost ready.

[bkox]

What do you guys see with Matt Vierling? Has done well in a short sample size. Does he start in AAA? Does he have the potential to grab a starting job?

[andyb]

I think he could compete for a platoon job if they don't bring Cutch back. He was not amazing in AAA though and he is not really a good CF, so his offense fits more as a platoon/utility player. He does have the athleticism to get better though so there is definitely a school of thought that would give him another half year in AAA.

I think we will bring in at least one starting OF and then maybe platoon the other position. I think the hot stove thread will have a lot of Marte talk (both Starling and Ketel).

[zambonir]

theathletic.com

An ode to a decade without Phillies postseason baseball

They were eliminated again Thursday night at Truist Park. A decade of the Phillies ... doing Phillies things.

That is really a heck of a read. Some names and things I'd already forgotten.

[DurhamBull]

Worst fielders, Cutch, Hoskins, Miller, Harper, Herrera, Janikowsi (working off Def value)

In fairness to Miller, it's not easy to excel when your assigned defensive position is "wherever we need you". He played 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF for the Phils this year. The Phils just weren't able to hide his glove often enough.

[Austinfan]

I think Muzziotti probably needs a full season in AAA unless he tears the cover off the ball. Just missed too much time.
Rojas will start at Jersey Shore but could end the season in Reading.
Those two are the future, both have the range we need, just don't want to ruin them by rushing them.
So I'd be looking for a one year fix, b/c I don't see Haseley or Moniak as answers, if Kingery could bounce back . . .

[andyb]

I think Muzziotti probably needs a full season in AAA unless he tears the cover off the ball. Just missed too much time.

That would be the conventional path. But he is more talented than guys like Williams and Vierling and it is not like he does not have a decent number of at bats already. He needed more strength, but that was 2 years ago.

If the Phillies don't acquire a full time CF and try to cobble a platoon from what they have or a minor free agent, I think he has a shot to win a job out of spring training. I imagine he will play full time in Venezuela this winter too to catch up.

Players with tools often move quickly and his biggest issues (getting stronger) might actually have been solved the last 2 years as he aged from 21 to 23.

[zambonir]

Kingery might not even be cleared to play by April (of course spring training won't have started in April either, possibly), and if he can play, who knows if he'll be good (or good enough to get put back on the 40 immediately). You can't pencil him in as anything other than mid-season bench/platoon depth IMO

[flyers19rw]

How about Muzziotti in the Dominican for extended winter ball?

[andyb]

He is Venezuelan so it would be there. The Phillies did have Brito play there last winter and it helped him, so I imagine that is part of the plan (U.S. players can't play there these days so it will be mostly Venezuelans there).

[bkox]

SMH. tonights lineup is out. Still no Bohm.. infield of Miller-Torreyes-Didi-Galvis. No Vierling either

[andyb]

In Girardi's defense, the Marlins are starting lefties Saturday and Sunday so imagine we'll see both Vierling and Bohm in those games. Realmuto and Cutch too. Without those guys today's lineup with Knapp and Jankowski is not that good.

[zambonir]

Yeah, that line-up is something. They should have also called up Marchan to play all three games no? No point in wearing down JT and I'll believe Bohm gets a start when I see it (but I imagine Andy's right).

Big question now is Wheeler. Kind of sad we don't even have a young starter to look at instead (at least, not one who probably isn't already throwing tomorrow).