2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[zambonir]

Yeah but I wouldn't say the value of Alfaro as part of a three-player package for two years of JT (which is all the trade got us) necessarily exceeded the value Vince provided. And a controllable near-ace starting pitcher should be worth 5 times more than a controllable closer.

[LoneStarPhan]

Having lost the first 2 games to the Rockies, the Phillies assure that this series will make 3 series in a row that they did not win the series. Not good enough if you want to catch the Braves.

[bkox]

The Phillies DFA’d Enyel De Los Santos. Andrew Knapp is back and Rafael Marchan is optioned to triple A.

— Matt Breen ( @matt_breen ) September 12, 2021

[zambonir]

You would think there might still be a body out there they could add to the pitching staff, though I realize 40-man space is tight. Like, the Rays just DFA'ed Shawn Armstrong? Is he better than what we have, including Bedrosian or Medina? No idea. But if you're gonna do what the Rays do you gotta master the churn/marginal value part too, not just throw bullpen games.

[andyb]

I think a lot of DFAs are happening now because nobody has space. A little surprised about EDLS. There is an effective middle reliever buried inside of him. Kind of wish they had started to develop him that way instead of starting a few years ago. Hopefully he slips through.

[zambonir]

One assumes he'll slip through. He has before. But he wasn't gonna get protected either.

I assume Vince will too since he actually costs money (even prorated) but he probably won't go to AAA, nor do the Phillies probably want him too. Chase Anderson now in AAA for Texas.

Rosso will probably still get DFA'ed too. They have to add Williams back to the 40 too.

[bkox]

The #Pirates have claimed RHP Enyel De Los Santos off waivers from the #Phillies .

— MiLB-Transactions ( @tombaseball29 ) September 13, 2021

[LoneStarPhan]

Maybe he will pitch against the Phillies in the upcoming series with tge Pirates.

If so, he probably dominates.

[VoteForKalas]

I read a local article that summed up the Phillies as follows:

"A team built to win now, but one not talented enough to do so"

That says it all to me - and IMO it derives from the same historical issues the Phillies still have not resolved.

Inconsistent talent evaluation, scouting etc.
Mediocre talent acquisition, draft etc.
Poor talent development, they rush some talent and yo-yo others up/down from the ML
Bloated and top heavy payroll that, along with the above, forces signing fringe players to fill roster
Out of step ownership & management who always seem to be chasing obsolete strategies/trends after the rest of the league has already adapted beyond them.

I still have hope for Dombrowski due to his track record; hopefully this year was a bridge to something better, but it feels now like a bridge to nowhere.

[bkox]

For all those asking Whats wrong with Realmuto:

J.T. Realmuto this year is almost exactly at his career stats…

Thru 2020:

.278/.328/.455 (.783 OPS)
.333 wOBA, 109 wRC+

2021:

.262/.349/.434 (.783 OPS)
.338 wOBA, 110 wRC+ @TheGoodPhight https://t.co/YpJyVpcCvx

— schmenkman ( @tgpschmenk ) September 14, 2021

[Austinfan]

Realmuto's value has always been that of a top defensive catcher who is an above average hitter at that position. Move him to DH or 1B and he's worth $10-15M a year. On a deep lineup he should be batting 6th, say if Hoskins returns and Bohm develops into the hitter he should be.

[andyb]

Well we bought Realmuto based on his past 3 seasons where his OPS was 825, 820, and 840. Of course at 30 he should be in his decline, especially as a catcher. All the arguments about his athleticism negating that might just shift the aging curve to that of a normal players as opposed to a catcher.

This is part of my argument to limit JT to 120 games behind the plate (or a 75% max catching pace when he is healthy). JT has had specific injuries this year which might not be due to wear and tear, but it also seems very true that wear and tear is a pretty significant risk factor.

One could argue that JT is the big contract that we should move in the offseason and let some other team assume the long term risk. Wheeler does seem untouchable now and it would be definitely trading low on Nola. JT is also in the realm of trading low of course. I just wonder if that low value is really his true value anyway and moving on from the money would be a good decision.

[Austinfan]

Given the lack of talent in this lineup, overpaying Realmuto by $5M a year (he's still a 3 WAR player) is a no brainer, because better the player you know than the pig in the poke in free agency. Phillies have tried to buy their way out of the failures of player development for a decade to no avail. At least he's no Didi.

[andyb]

he's still a 3 WAR player

And he could be a 2 WAR player, then a 1 WAR player, and then replacement level because of injuries like many 34-year-old catchers.

Teams really should have almost no untouchables. The Phillies are mediocre. Moving a player that might be in decline to give you financial flexibility (and some prospects) is how good teams rebuild. It is called the Branch Rickey way and it has worked for almost a century with or without analytics.

[zambonir]

Even this past off-season, they could have let JT go and used that money on a CF and a starting pitcher. Though ironically the Mets left them with little choice, and we should be pretty glad to not have McCann as well.

I would agree JT doesn't have to be untouchable, I just assume he is. And I think it's fine to overpay him, both now and in two years. But it's another reason to exceed the CBT. You can have a cheaper catcher and spend that money elsewhere, or you can have this catcher and spend that money plus pay the tax. Otherwise you get the CF play and lead-off OBP we currently have.

[andyb]

This kind of amused me. We actually got more WAR for less money from VV than the Astros and others got from Giles:

Did the Phillies win the Vince Velasquez trade?

Now I suppose the team trading a closer for prospects is supposed to win big in these types of deals, but it is actually hard to call the deal a disaster (other than a missed opportunity to have gotten different or better prospects).

[zambonir]

Like I said earlier it was arguably better than the Hamels deal. Both pretty good trades where the prospects didn't work out, but obviously Hamels' future value was considerably greater than Giles's.

IIRC Eickhoff provided a decent chunk of the WAR the Phillies' got for Cole.

At least the infamous Appel for Derek Fisher switch didn't end up hurting either.

[el-pietro]

Even this past off-season, they could have let JT go and used that money on a CF and a starting pitcher.

What CF could they have bought with that money? CF league wide is a dearth of talent and there weren't any good options on the market. Their best bet to solve that problem would havebeen trading for Buxton and hoping he stays healthy.
The top ten CF byf WAR:
Cedric Mullins 26 yrs Baltimore 5.5 - had a career 72 OPS+ in 418 PA before this season
Starling Marte 32 yrs Miami/Oakland 5.5
Bryan Reynolds 26 yrs Pittsburgh 4.8 - is he really a CF, splits his time between thee and LF and his defensive stats don't look great.
Kiké Hernández 30 yrs - Boston 3.4 - might have been a decent option in a trade
Chris Taylor 30 yrs Dodgers 3.1 - not really a CF, plays everywhere
Myles Straw 26 yrs Houston/Cleveland 3.1 - career OPS+ of 87 in 774 PAs coming into the season
Byron Buxton 27 yrs Minnesota 3.0 - undoubtedly talented but only one season of 100+ games in his career
Brandon Nimmo Mets 3.0 God I hate watching him run to first on a walk
Adolis Garcia 28 years Texas 2.8 - 52 career ML games coming into the season
Mike Trout Angels 2.3 - not available
Luis Robert White Sox 2.3 not available
Steven Duggar San Francisco 2.3 career OPS+ of 70 before this season
Alex Verdugo 24 Boston 2.2 - if we gave up Harper maybe given what they paid for him
Trent Grisham 24 San Diego 2.2 - I have nothing snarky to say but I doubt the Padres were selling a 24 year old
Ramón Laureano 27 Aoakland 2.1 - nothing snarky here either.

For reference Odúbel is at 1.1 wins. So you could add a win or two by replacing him with one of the above, but you lose the 4.1 wins JT provided minus whatever his replacement gives you. Maybe pitching is a better allocation of that money but there just aren't any great center fielders available, and not many in the league to begin with.

[zambonir]

That was actually me.

Of course, they could have signed JBJ, and that wouldn't have been good either. And at the time they made their off-season moves they had very little expectation of Herrera doing anything. They probably also thought Haseley and Kingery would combine for 2 WAR.

The easy hindsight is to say they could have just signed Galvis - was often suggested at the time - and Tajuan Walker (or someone in that price range) instead of Didi and Anderson/Moore.

At the end of the day this was another lost season, built by lame ducks and a new guy in evaluation mode. They should have fired MacPhail and Klentak at the same time as Kapler; even getting a new GM in a place 2-4 weeks earlier might have had an impact. By the time DD was hired Velasquez had already been tendered, the Braves had already signed Morton and Smyly and the Mets - despite not having a front office themselves - were almost done signing McCann.

[LoneStarPhan]

The lost and almost forgotten player. Does Kingery have any value going forward?