2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[andyb]

We don't even know if there's going to be baseball in April or May

But you have to build an offseason roster assuming there will be. Counting on a labor stoppage to bridge the gap until Eflin is ready is not much of a strategy. More to the point, we really still have questions about the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation with Suarez and Eflin. Suarez has never had to show durability. Eflin's health is a question. Gibson is reliable but a back end starter.

There is definitely a case to bring another starter in.

[zambonir]

Well for sure, though it also depends just how ugly this labor dispute gets. There could be anything from an actual transaction freeze to a super-slow market. Arrieta and Harper signed so late they couldn't report in time to spring training. That will happen this time too, so if there's a 1 or 2 month stoppage lots of players will still be unsigned until it ends, in April or May.

Plus, would both sides even agree to operate under the current CBA for QOs and arbitration?

And of course for a team like the Phillies that still probably needs to be up against the CBT threshold and are good MLB soldiers, they're not likely to set the market (and if they do it will be for a position player).

Regardless, they'll probably be shopping in the $10-14 million aisle (i.e. someone like Tajuan Walker, whom they missed this last time) rather than the Charlie Morton or multi-year aisle. Will just have to be someone better than Anderson/Moore/Velasquez.

Like I said I also think you could get someone via trade. Even Moniak or Haseley might get you someone useful. Hoskins definitely would (though his absence is making a strong case to keep him). Didi might with enough $. And then there's Bohm (though he might go in a Buxton deal, if they go that way).

[gmwannabe]

Chronic Knee problems. isn't that what Chase had. have efflin contact him about exercises. Utley lasted pretty long and was successful.
gm

[andyb]

I don't think Chase ever had surgery though. It just took him a couple of years to rework his rehab routine.

For Eflin this is his second surgery on one of his patellar tendons. He had surgery on both in 2016 but started to have some pain in the joint this Spring. His seems a more chronic problem and we can only hope that future surgery is successful.

[bkox]

Utley's main issue was chondromalacia which was also causing micro fractures if I remember right. Eflin's issue is the tendon. So it may be a whole different kind of rehab.

Plus Utley didnt have have to make 200 throws where he either plants or pushes off on that knee every 5th game.

[zambonir]

It's a fine line between inflammation, a "strain" and a tear, but this should still be something he can recover from in the long run.

[bkox]

It's a fine line between inflammation, a "strain" and a tear, but this should still be something he can recover from in the long run.

Thing is, it is a chronic condition:

It’s a tough setback for Eflin, who underwent the same surgery on both knees five years ago. He understood it was a chronic condition he’d have to maintain throughout his career, but the hope was the surgeries in 2016 would buy him more than five years.

Phillies' Zach Eflin to undergo season-ending surgery on patellar tendon

[zambonir]

Well, the surgeries did buy him five more years! (Or close.) I imagine they will be cleaning up and/or augmenting some things if they can too. Still better than a rupture or an actual in-the-moment injury (i.e. a tear while throwing a pitch)

[David_Criss]

Wondering if and when Joyce gets added to the roster. Velasquez struck out nine in 3.2 yesterday, wondering if he re-joins the team for the B game next week. With the days off, it wouldn't be the worse idea to give Nola an extra day off.

[zambonir]

I have a hard time imagining Joyce back on the team, and he doesn't need to be for two more weeks. Seems to me they can't afford to lose a right-handed bat. Or drop a pitcher, it seems.

Most logical move would be to DFA Jankowski (since Vierling can play CF. Williams too, if he even returns to the big leagues).

[zambonir]

Did the rotation really carry them in August? They averaged 5 runs a game (while allowing 4.5).

The rotation, which carried the Phillies in August, is stumbling in September. And if that doesn’t change, it’s going to be hard to chase down a playoff spot.

Kyle Gibson struggles again for Phillies in 4-3 loss to Brewers, miss chance to...

[bkox]

Did the rotation really carry them in August? They averaged 5 runs a game (while allowing 4.5).

Starting pitcher ERA was 3.72 in August. 6.06 so far in sept and 5.91 in July

[zambonir]

And we're 9-4 in Matt Moore's starts, I saw.

The numbers aside, I would merely say the Phillies are under more pressure to get good starting pitching in September due to the loss of Rhys and diminishment of Realmuto. But I still wouldn't say it's carried them one way or another. Arguably it was better earlier in the season (Wheeler at his peak, Eflin healthy, Nola pitched best in April).

[andyb]

With the DH next year the Phillies really need to look at the Salvador Perez plan for Realmuto. That is playing him almost every day, but up to 30% of the time as the DH. Let's keep JT to 110-120 catching starts. That should help the bat rebound some.

[zambonir]

For sure. Though I think he's just hurt at this point. Hard to separate out injured from aging/overused of course.

This whole line-up desperately needed the DH and it was arguably one reason why last year's offense was better (along with certain players being younger, and Bohm of course). Who knows if it would have made Cutch (against righties) or Didi any better, or put less wear on Rhys.

Back-up catcher will be fairly big decision, I'd think. If you want someone to catch 50 games do you go Marchan or veteran free agent? Don't think you can put much stock in Knapp's 2020 offensive numbers ever being something he can do in a real sample.

[andyb]

Knapp appears to have reached the Cameron Rupp phase of his backup catching career when his physical skills have dropped a little as he has aged to the point where there are likely other cheap options out there for $2-$3 million that would be better, especially if you wanted them to start 40 games.

Ideally Marchan plays another year in the minors and improves his hitting to the point where he can be something like a 600 OPS guy. They should probably encourage him to play winter ball this year. He just needs more at bats.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Does Realmuto have the bat to be a 1B/DH for 60 games a year? He is being paid what he is because his bat and catching make him a very good catcher compared to the other in mlb. Does his defense and offense favorable compare to the other positions especially when that means a back up catcher hits and another 1B/DH bat comes out of the lineup?

[bkox]

Does Realmuto have the bat to be a 1B/DH for 60 games a year?

This year the MLB average OPS for DH is .758. Fr 1B its .786. But for catcher its .695. So hes an slightly above average DH, average 1B and a very above average catcher

[zambonir]

If JT catches 120 games, he'd probably only do 30 at 1B/DH. It's time to take more actual off days too.

If there'd been a DH this year we would have seen even worse bats in Bohm and Didi there, though maybe we'd also have a bigger RH bench bat. So much still depends on what they do about LF and 3B and Didi.

[andyb]

The Perez comparison is interesting though because he does not take off days. He is going to play in 160 games and hit close to 50 homers and is older with more injury history than JT. All because he can DH often.