2021 Phillies Major League Regular Season Discussion (part 2)

[David_Criss]

When will Williams and Knapp need to be added back to the 40-man/active roster? Eflin to the 60-day is a no-brainer. Rosso, Bedrosian, DLS, Moore - who gets cut, who gets demoted? Does Bohm go to the 60-day?

With Velasquez and Joyce "rehabbing in games", will they need to be added at some point?
Can't keep track of all the new rules in September.

[andyb]

They have one open spot after last week's moves so they could bring back one of Williams or Knapp. The other would require a 40-man move as would Joyce who is on the 60. Velasquez would only require a move onto the 28-man roster. That probably depends on whether they think VV would be better than someone like Rosso especially if they have a bunch of bullpen games.

Hard to say what they would do. Eflin to the 60 is an option, but with the minor league season going until October I could see them waiting till the last second to make any decision on him if there is a chance he could come back.

Games will take a long time the next few weeks. Looks like they are going with a short bench and up to 16 pitchers.

[zambonir]

With Eflin we/they just don't know what the status of his knee is. But you probably want to get him throwing first to find out. Even if he was only available for the last weekend of the year he might be worth the roster spot. There could always be tiebreaker games too.

In theory they can just about bury Vince and Joyce in rehab.There's also still the possibility of bringing up Seranthony. But I don't think 40-man spots are a huge concern at this point. Maybe they DFA Vince or even Moore. Maybe Bedrosian (otherwise, he's in the majors for the rest of the year). Rosso could be optioned, or DFAed again.

And at this point they must already have a pretty good idea which of Sanchez, Jones, Phillips, Morales, and Medina are going to make it December, and/or has trade value. Shouldn't be that hard to ditch one who isn't/doesn't, and who knows if they'd even get claimed.

COVID forces them to be careful about all of this, including keeping VV and Moore.

[David_Criss]

The active roster is at 28.
16 pitchers
2 catchers - Marchan and Realmuto
5 INF - Galvis, Torreyes, Segura, Gregorius, Miller
5 OF - Harper, Herrera, Jankowski, Cutch, Vierling

The 40-man is at 46 or 42 with Romero, Hoskins, Joyce, Quinn on the 60-day.
Moniak, Haseley, Maton, Bohm, Sanchez, Philips, Morales, Medina, Jones, Seranthony in the minors
Williams, Knapp, Velasquez, Eflin on the IL

Guess VV can come up to be the pinch hitter, pinch runner - how is the offense this bad and thin?
So if anybody is added to the active roster, a 40-man cut will be needed unless Bohm and Eflin are moved to the 60-day and Joyce is left to finish out the season in the minors.

[zambonir]

We just don't have enough info about the COVID guys yet. Will they test negative on the first possible day they can be activated? Have they had persistent symptoms that might require a rehab stint or longer stay? (Even if the longer stay isn't entirely above board.)

According to the transactions Eflin isn't even on the COVID list per se.

I don't see how they can continue to carry three catchers either, though Knapp is no worse than any of the other bench guys besides Miller (i.e. none of them are dangerous offensive players, occasional big hits/streaks aside).

Giving Vince one more shot in the pen because of his additional utility is not the worst idea I suppose. In any case there's no lack of fungible arms to DFA for one or two spots, when (and if) the time comes.

[phillychuck]

I thought they were stretching VV out to "start" and eat a few more innings

[andyb]

If VV were recalled he probably only pitches a couple of times. He has been going 2 or 3 in the minors so clearly he would have some sort of multi-inning role. The choice is between him and someone like Rosso or Bedrosian for one of the last spots in what is an 11 or 12 man bullpen. He'd pitch in bullpen games and blowouts (like Moore) and that is it.

We have also been going with a 4-man bench lately. Bench is basically Marchan, Torreyes, Vierling, and Jankowski now (putting Miller as the starting 1B). If they continue to do that VV is actually useful to pinch run and be an emergency hitter. They probably would be better served with a 5th bat on the bench (bringing Williams or Joyce back and keeping Vierling), but the large pitching staff has been working so far. Injuries will take care of most of the musical chairs. I do like it that Girardi seems to be starting Didi consistently again and downgrading Torreyes who got overexposed. It is nice also to have the right-handed bats to do a pretty right-handed lineup.

[zambonir]

I think Joe merely said they intended to get him back up. They seem pretty definitively commited to the bullpen game approach. Which is still semantics if Moore, VV or Falter go 2-3 innings. But I think it's also promising if they are taking a proactive approach - i.e. thinking about openers and match-ups depending on the opponent and who's available.

I think they'll go back to 5 bats, question is will they keep Marchan (thus making Knapp the fifth bat) or let him get another month of work in AAA. Right now, it's an ain't broke don't fix it situation (same with Vierling).

Would have been nice if Bohm was the 3B and Didi/Galvis the SS tandem.

[David_Criss]

The only option to add to the bench is just sad. Moniak - Joe won't play him and not the answer, Chattham is hitting, but not on the 40-man and was passed over throughout the season, Maton -might as well have VV, Haseley on the 40-man, but...,, Stott could mess with his development.

Im warning up more to the bring up Vinny to pitch in a pinch, but be available to pinch hit, pinch run and heck play in the outfield if needle.

[andyb]

I think they were hoping Haseley would have been good the past month but it has not happened. So I think they are going with a short bench unless they want Joyce as a pinch hitter. And basically mixing and matching the fungible arms at the end of the bullpen to keep the better arms fresh.

It is not an exciting strategy, but it is really the only one they have.

[andyb]

Note Knapp and Williams are both starting rehab tonight with LHV. Assume we could see both by the end of the week. Who they replace might depend on how Marchan and Vierling continue to play (and whether they go to a 5-man bench again). I just have no idea whether they prefer Knapp to Marchan now. It has to be pretty close in their thinking. And if JT is playing more 1B like he is tonight, that means Williams and Vierling would mainly play CF against LHP and pinch hit. Probably don't need both of them though I guess Vierling is a bit more of a threat pinch hitting while Williams is the better defender and runner (remember Galvis and a few others are banged up and not running at 100%).

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think you need to look to anyone besides Joyce who has not currently been on the major league roster recently as a bench option. It will either be an extra catcher or Vierling and Williams both. I just don't see them optioning Knapp and even though he hasn't hit, he's still useful on the bench as a switch-hitter and double-switcher.

[bkox]

I sometimes think we should have a dedicated post for interesting stats that I find posted on twitter... or sometimes dig up myself... But since we dont.. I found this interesting and will post this here in the season thread:

Bryce Harper is having, arguably, the greatest offensive season in Citizen’s Bank Park history. His 175 wRC+ at home this year is better than any season of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, or Jayson Werth.

— Leo Morgenstern ( @morgensternmlb ) September 8, 2021

[zambonir]

Posted this in yesterday's game thread but if you can read it (I think non-subscribers get a certain # of freebies) it's nice to see Dombrowski and Fuld are giving the bullpen game concept a lot of thought in terms of how to approach it, who to use when, which guys to keep ready for call-ups, etc. It never really felt that way in the past, even with Kapler.

The Phillies’ latest obstacle on the postseason path? A bullpen game every fifth...

[zambonir]

Came here expecting to see this already

Phillies announce Zach Eflin will require right knee surgery. He will have it Friday. Recovery is 6 to 8 months, so he will miss start of next season.

— Jim Salisbury ( @JSalisburyNBCS ) September 8, 2021

[bkox]

wow.. did he injure it more when trying to come back? Or was something misses originally

[bkeich]

Terrible news about Eflin.

Honestly, it makes it unclear whether you can count on him at all next year. Tough to have leg injuries for pitchers, takes awhile to come back, even if he starts in March (optimistic).

Does he still have an option? Let him build up in AAA and hope.

Going to be an ugly off-season. We need a lot (again). We have 3 position players (Rf, C, 2B), 2 starting pitchers and one relievers (Neris) (plus whatever you do with Suarez)

[bkox]

Does he still have an option? Let him build up in AAA and hope.

no. Because after 5 years of service time, options go away, Eflin reaches 5 years some time this month.

[andyb]

There was some talk about Eflin's knees over much of the season. I am just guessing that he has chronic knee issues and the surgery he had a few years ago did not fix everything.

He is worth keeping around for his final arbitration season as long as he is expected back for most of the year. 8 months would be some time in May, so it is possible he could be doing rehab starts in late April after they break camp. We still probably bring in an extra starter or two. Not sure they will want to start the season with Falter in the rotation though they should give him a shot at it of course.

[zambonir]

We don't even know if there's going to be baseball in April or May.

I don't think there's anything particularly extraordinary or concerning about it, you always want to avoid surgery if you can, and he wouldn't have tried to come back from it if the pain was too severe or if there was risk of further injury. Unlike a lot of guys he wasn't hiding it (at least not in recent months). It's just too bad the timeline goes the way it does now.

If they decide to/are able to trade a position player, they might get a 4th-starter caliber guy back. Probably impossible to trade Nola now (not saying they would or should but I don't think anything should be off the table to change/improve the team for 2022 and 2023. Or to rebuild, if that's where it goes).

He'll go to AAA like anyone else to rehab, doesn't matter if he doesn't have an option. If he's not ready to pitch after the initial rehab stint you just IL him again.

Opens up the 40 spot in any case. In spring training as well.