2021 MLB Non-Phillies News/Notes

andyb 2021-02-10 14:30:25 UTC #61

The latest PECOTA projections for 2021 are better than I thought they would be. Biggest conclusion for me on the NL East is that people may be overrating the Braves. They have some holes in the lineup and age at selected positions and I am assuming PECOTA projects a little regression there (like Morton). These also include the Ozuna signing and incorporate the DH, so it is kind of giving the Braves the benefit of the doubt and the DH at this point would project many more at bats for Haseley and Quinn on the Phillies and not necessarily help them (part of the reason we need another left-handed bat on the roster).

For the Phillies 83-79 is better than the 81-81 I might expect. But we are all pessimistic here....

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Fangraphs is MUCH different. Braves at 89-73 (7 games better than BP). Phillies at 79-83 (4 games worse).
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

el-pietro 2021-02-10 18:40:00 UTC #62

Fangraphs is a little higher on the Braves but doesn't think they are all that great. Little lower on the Mets and Phillies.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-E
Mets 91
Braves 89
Nationals 83
Phillies 80
Marlins 72

The division is there to be won, I don't think there is a huge gap between even the Mets and Marlins, and the gap between the Mets, Braves, Nationals and Phillies is pretty minute. Injuries, luck etc will play a huge part.

I think perhaps the Fangraphs projections have not yet been adjusted to take into consideration the schedule though, or someone in the NL Central would surely be projected for 80 wins.

andyb 2021-02-11 14:54:28 UTC #63

Benintendi to the Royals, essentially for multiple B and C level prospects. Salary dump most likely that it does note they have more money for Bradley if they want to consider it.

bkox 2021-02-13 16:57:34 UTC #64

zambonir 2021-02-13 19:16:33 UTC #65

I'm starting to think that Herrera is the reason the Phillies' haven't announced the roster yet, rather than their typical sluggishness with news/transactions. They are probably not the only ones but on first glance/Google at least 15 teams have put out their list.

andyb 2021-02-14 14:02:06 UTC #66

Dodgers resign Justin Turner for 2/34. This puts them past the second competitive balance tax threshold and pushes their top draft pick the next year back 10 places. Of course going from 30 to 40 (it would be the year after so we don't know if it will be 30th quite yet but it will likely be low) is a whole lot different than some team going from 10 to 20 or 3 to 13.

andyb 2021-02-14 14:12:29 UTC #67

One interesting change this year is about rosters and COVID:

I had not noticed this, but now one does NOT need to make a 40-man roster move to call somebody up after a COVID outbreak:

We have also agreed to allow any Clubs that experience a COVID-19 outbreak among their players to add to the Major League Active List temporarily, without the need for those players to be placed on waivers, outrighted, or optioned in order to be removed from the 40-man roster when players return from the COVID-19 Related Injured List.

Add to this that there is also no 13-pitcher limit on the 26-person roster this year and it makes me think the Phillies will go with 14 pitchers and 12 position players. A 4-man bench that is likely Knapp, Kingery, Miller, and Quinn/Haseley (with one of Kingery, Quinn, and Haseley starting in CF).

Matt Joyce, Ronald Torreyes and all the NRI pitchers can safely be put on the 28-person reserve list out of spring training and might easily get a COVID callup where if they play well it could be made permanent. It really make zero sense to give teams no extra flexibility on 40-man roster moves during outbreaks. I think teams did not really try to steal too many Marlins and Cardinals players when all that happened, but the teams really should have been given the latitude to call up whomever they needed.

zambonir 2021-02-14 17:16:59 UTC #68

This is hardly a positive development for the affected players though. Guys on the COVID list didn't count against the 40-man limit so it was just a matter of being able to send guys back to the alternate training site once the regular players started to come back. If another team really wanted to add Joyce or Torreyes to their 40 - right now, by definition, not one team does - they lose that chance. I would think Joyce has an opt-out, though that doesn't mean he'll use it.

Where it gets interesting is the taxi squad. Do the players on the taxi squad get paid in full - i.e. like they are on the 40, not a major league salary - all season or only when travelling? And what's the difference between the Alternate Training Site and AAA? (For the Phillies, I assume there isn't one). You can put up the 5 guys on it but the Phillies barely even had one last year. This year there will be longer road trips though.

andyb 2021-02-14 18:57:04 UTC #69

I think everyone on the taxi squad gets paid as if in the minors or the minor league side of a split deal.

There are probably details to iron out, but I imagine things will be closer to normal after the minors start because there will not be a need for these extra players other than the taxi squad for 24-hour emergencies. Players also sign deals that often have opt-outs if the player is not in the majors by a certain date.

Now it would be better for players if it operated like NFL taxi squads where any team can poach a taxi squad member I think with the NFL team having the right to elevate that person to the regular roster as some sort of right of first refusal. All heck would break out if that could happen in baseball, even if it were limited to non-40 man roster players who had enough service time to be rule 5 eligible. That kind of poaching does not happen except through the waiver system.

I think alternate site players will generally be happy. Many will be making like $150K sitting around, knowing that they have a good chance with COVID of ending up in the majors. And in May when the minors start I am sure lots will start floating around and be available to any team (though likely with some COVID quarantine requirement which would mean it would take a couple weeks to be claimed and make it to a ML roster).

bkox 2021-02-18 03:30:15 UTC #70

bkox 2021-02-18 03:49:49 UTC #71

el-pietro 2021-02-18 09:50:41 UTC #72

Thats a great deal for both parties, but not without risk. Tatis is potentially leaving a lot of money on the table, and theres the possibility he has a significant injury that diminishes his ability to play early in the life of the contract.

Barring that though the Padres are getting him for less than 25M a year from age 22 to 35. His career line so far is less than a seasons worth of games in which he put up 7 rWAR or 6.5 fWAR. Hes a potential MVP candidate and one of the most exciting players in all of baseball right now. Even at 4 or 5 WAR per season in his 20s and nothing in his 30s this contract would be good value for the Padres.
I wonder if we start to see more contracts like this for super star hitters. The Braves underpaid Acuna, Soto might be the next big payday for a pre arb/arb player, though he did get 8.5M for this year.

andyb 2021-02-18 18:39:33 UTC #73

On the Tatis deal. They figured he would make $50 million in his 3 years of arbitration and this is a 10 year/$290 million deal on top of that. And remember his first free agent season would be his age 26 season, so like Bryce Harper he would potentially get paid more because his free agency would include his prime and not just the years past his prime.

Seems a good deal for the Padres with some modest risk associated with the health of any player.

andyb 2021-02-18 19:12:07 UTC #74

Max Scherzer with an interesting idea for expanded playoffs - a round robin tournament. 12 teams. 6 in each league might play a 5 or 10 game round robin with the top 2 going to the ALCS or NLCS (so this replaces 2 rounds of playoffs). One would have to seed the division winners with bonus wins in some way, but it might be fascinating.

Taudawg 2021-02-18 19:30:49 UTC #75

I think this is a brilliant idea.

andyb 2021-02-18 19:37:18 UTC #76

I think it would be fun. You might give the top seeds 3, 2, and 1 extra wins as bonuses. Or something like that. Tie-breakers might be controversial though.

The downside is that it really speaks to playing at a neutral site. Hard to do travel in a round robin. If we had no fans this year I might want to give it a try. You could play 10 games in 12 days with some staggered starts. No reason for extra travel days or a day or 2 between series.

andyb 2021-02-18 21:48:47 UTC #77

And one of the winners in the Tatis contract - ex-Phillie Michael Schwimer.

What MLB Advance gets depends on whether Tatis took the 1%, 5%, or 10% option or something in between.

bkeich 2021-02-18 23:25:21 UTC #78

AI wonder what the over / under for the Padres returning to being a small market team and trading Tatis is 3 years? 5?

With that huge contract they have to trade him before he is 30 to get anything in return.

andyb 2021-02-18 23:48:45 UTC #79

I am not sure about that. We have not seen the details yet, but the last 6 years (the part starting when he was 30) might be about $30 million a year and potentially a bit less. 8 years from now is a lot of inflation. That might be like paying a player $23-$25 million a year now starting at age 30. He has to be healthy and good, but George Springer got 6/150 starting at his age 31 season in this depressed market.

Tatis could have trade value up until the last 2 or 3 years of his deal. And will be underpaid for most of the part of the deal where he is good. And if he regresses defensively it is not like the Padres could not kick in $5 million to move him somewhere.

BostonRoss 2021-02-19 03:19:08 UTC #80

It’s interesting to compare the Tatis deal to Stanton’s. Stanton was three years older and more established. The Marlins got good production out of him for three years, including an MVP year. But then they traded him for nothing but salary relief. The Padres are already good and have been throwing money around, and so maybe they won’t be as worried about cutting costs if they are not contending three or four years from now. Of course, Tatis could want out in such a case, like A-Rod with the Rangers.