2021-2022 Winter Ball - AFL, Instructional, Latin America

[andyb]

AFL is a small sample and the pitching is notoriously bad. O'Hoppe has 19 games above A ball. What is the rush? And it is not like he dominated those 19 games even if he held his own. We are developing a CATCHER here. He is only 21. He missed a year of development on the defensive side too.

Also not sure what your point on Marchan is. He does NOT have a good hit tool. His K rate is relatively low, but he is a .265 career hitter that just hit .203 with a .515 OPS. He is just not a major league hitter now and I am not sure he ever projects to be more than a 600 OPS guy in extended playing time. The key thing is he is not that now. O'Hoppe offers the promise of average defense and plus offense. To me that is better than Marchan's plus defense and likely minus below average offense.

[zambonir]

I would probably wait to trade Marchan until the deadline unless he's a perfect fit in something. I don't think he'll play in MLB this year, especially with the extra games from JT being at DH, but whether they keep Knapp or bring in another vet, they'll want the insurance.

[andyb]

I don't think Marchan brings much in a trade anyway. As I said, no-hit catchers that play decent defense are not that hard to find. I am fine with him being the 3rd catcher in AAA. I probably want someone better than Knapp as the main backup to JT though. If some other team really wanted Marchan though I would include him in a trade in a second. O'Hoppe is more of a 2023 consideration regardless.

[Austinfan]

Marchan has been rushed up the system, the fact he has good bat control suggests a hit tool that will improve as he adds strength, his first HR came in the majors, which tells you how his lack of strength hindered him in the minors. I wouldn't write off his hit tool for a couple more years

[andyb]

Nobody is writing off his hit tool. You just go straight to him having a good hit tool. While he has been rushed a bit because they had no other options, it is also equally true that he has never really hit at the level that suggests a decent major league bat anywhere. Even guys like Knapp and Rupp put up huge offensive years in the minors.

That fact that a young player could develop is very different than seeing that young player actually develop. We are seeing that offensively from O'Hoppe (who is behind Marchan defensively). We are not seeing that from Marchan yet. Scouts probably see something like a 40-45 hit tool from him with a power tool of like 30. Note MLB.com has O'Hoppe with a 40 hit tool and 50 power and that seems about right to me. They had Marchan at 50 and 35 in 2020, but that is before the 2021 season where he had a 515 OPS at AAA so I think that 50 hit tool was optimistic.

[allentown]

I don't think Marchan was well served by skipping past Reading. I don't think Marchan's minor league record compares as unfavorable to Rupp and Knapp as you think it does. First, Rupp never had huge offensive years in the minors (you can look it up -- he never reached an .800 OPS). Rupp had a .720 OPS at Lakewood at age 22 and a .770 OPS at Clearwater at age 23. At age 24 he had a .784 OPS at Reading and a .732 OPS at Allentown. Marchan had lower OPS at Lakewood and ClW (.686 and .573), but he was only age 20 that year. After essentially missing 2020, he had only 5 AB at Reading, before being moved to Allentown. For the first time in his career, he had an appreciable number of strikeouts (but still less than 20%). AF is right that he was severely rushed. Knapp put up booming numbers in half a year at Reading at age 23 -- the only time he put up big numbers in the minors. then fell back to .717 OPS at Allentown the following season.

O'Hoppe has moved through the system extremely fast for a catcher.

Carlos Ruiz didn't hit well at Reading until age 25.

I see a lot to like in Marchan. He looks like a near certain MLB backup catcher with a decent chance to be a starter down the road.

[Austinfan]

Thing is we've seen Marchan against ML pitching and he didn't look over matched. Doesn't mean he's ready for the Show, but you can watch a young player and see if he has "it." Marchan has a nice compact stroke, doesn't chase a lot of bad pitches, and should develop gap power as he fills out. He only has about 850 PA over a five year period (missed a season due to COVID), most minor league players don't make the majors until they have 2000+.

He's a classic "sell low" proposition right now, which is why I'd be reluctant to include him in any deal, a good season in AAA could up his value substantially, while there is little downside.

[andyb]

The difference with Marchan though is he has not really stepped forward at all yet. He has hung in at aggressive levels for his age, but never with offensive stats that suggested a decent major league hitter. He'll be a good backup with his defense but that is really all he looks like to me unless he is on a really good offensive team.

He is decidedly not a "sell low" candidate. There is no reason to think he is not properly valued. He has major league managers gushing over his defense and a small sample of good major league hitting even if balanced by the bad minor league hitting. Let's not make him into more than he is which is a nice defensive catcher. O'Hoppe can be more than that which is why he is the better prospect.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think Marchan probably has value. I know the Phillies have a weak system but he is still one of your Top 10 prospects without being one of the Top 3 prospects, and that's the kind of guy who gets traded. And it's also a surplus position. I'm good with waiting until July though. He is useful depth, and I don't think his value will actually change in AAA (if he hits a little, great, if not, he's still a projected back-up catcher).

That said, is O'Hoppe in need of Rule 5 protection?

[andyb]

is O'Hoppe in need of Rule 5 protection?

He should be a year away from that. 4 years in the system total as an 18-year-old signee.

[julio]

That said, is O'Hoppe in need of Rule 5 protection?

See this post:

https://www.philliesphans.com/t/phillies-hot-stove-discussion-2021-22/52516/72

[zambonir]

Yeah I know, that was lazy of me.

But that clarifies thing a little bit IMO. It wasn't always great when the Phillies only carried two catchers on the 40 but they obviously wouldn't carry four. I'm still assuming JT/veteran back-up/Marchan and keep Marchan until the trade deadline at last. If he wins the back-up job along the way, mores the better.

[andyb]

Theoretically O'Hoppe might offer some help in the second half of 2022 no matter whether he is at AA or AAA. Same idea with Marchan. Have a non-roster catcher (a 4th catcher) available rather than wasting a move on another AAAA catcher.

Knapp is probably the only catcher roster problem to resolve this winter. Do we need someone better. Heck, Knapp could be the AAA insurance too even if he is off the roster and elects to stay. Is another team really going to give him a better shot in Spring Training? He'll have to beat some other veteran out whereever he goes (or stays).

[zambonir]

Things generally don't play out that way. If they non-tender him he can probably still get a major league deal, just for less money. But I don't know that he'd take that from the Phillies. He may well get tendered and I suppose if he then lost the job in spring training maybe he'd accept the assignment (I assume from your post he's out of options).

[andyb]

Some last impressions on a handful of players at the end of instructional league:

10/23/21 : Fall Instructs Visions

[EDmuch]

This article is a very good read. Gives a feeling of hope for the future. Explains why long term contract for FA shortstops & outfielders could create complications in a couple of year.

[zambonir]

That was probably no less true four-five years ago when Williams, Altherr, Moniak, Kingery and Crawford mean we didn't need OFs or middle IFs. Obviously they don't want to tie their hands, but also, with a SS, especially one with a big bat, you've got endless positional flexibility, plus the DH if you end up with too many OFs. And Nola, Wheeler and JT certainly can't wait around for these guys. But fingers crossed!

[allentown]

True, but in all honesty the Phillies totally blooped that pile of talent, although Kingery was derailed by long Covid as much as by Phillies not letting him play 2B. Should never have traded Crawford. Should never have tried to turn Moniak into a power guys.

[andyb]

The broad view of our system is that we do have a half dozen prospects in the OF and middle infield that look decent. We probably lack depth in the corners and in general with pitching. Even if Abel and Painter are our 2 best prospects, we should really have a half dozen more arms that are close to them. It kind of makes sense that we have gone pitching in our last two drafts at the top since that is where our depth is weakest.

[zambonir]

I don't think Kingery actually had "long COVID." He was just out of shape from all the time away from the game, lack of conditioning, weight loss, and also mentally, and then had multiple physical injuries while trying to play his way back. It seems his shoulder injury (kept him out of games last year and led to surgery this year) was the bigger factor. But the team's position is his swing is also broken and that trend started in the second half of 2019.