2021-2022 Winter Ball - AFL, Instructional, Latin America

andyb 2021-10-18 18:01:15 UTC #41

I think it would be a good thing to reduce the defensive value of catchers if that relates to stealing strikes. Let's get back to blocking and throwing and calling a good game. Good catcher defense will always have value. That value should be in how they play though and not how they fool umpires. I am also OK with the Tom Glavines of the world not getting a couple of extra inches outside the strike zone. All that nibbling now gets rewarded and the games get longer. I think a set zone will actually reinforce the changing of speed aspect of pitching rather than nibbling at the strike zone.

Austinfan 2021-10-18 19:40:03 UTC #42

It'll reward pitchers with good command who can paint the corners over pitchers with good stuff that fools umpires (late breaking pitches that look like strikes but end up outside the zone). And pitchers will be more likely to pitch to contact b/c it'll be harder to get hitters to chase pitches outside the zone as they learn a consistent K-zone.

So there will be a few more walks, but a lot more balls in play.

andyb 2021-10-18 20:11:12 UTC #43

The goal really should not be more walks though. If anything the goal should be fewer walks. They need to incentivize throwing strikes and swinging the bat. When MLB only looks at a narrow aspect (say accuracy of calls) they are missing all of the game flow issues. That is why all these things are related. We need to incentivize throwing strikes but that won't help if the ball remains lively.

bkox 2021-10-18 20:19:25 UTC #44

The problem with the walks may not be solved by any changes other than reducing injuries and having starters go more innings.

How many more pitchers are pitching in the big leagues now than just 10-20 years ago? bbref shows that 1153 pitchers appeared in games this year. 10 years ago (2011) it was 750.

So thats 400 (maybe 350 if you subtract position players pitching) pitchers that wouldnt have appeared on a MLB roster 10 years ago. A good portion of those probably have control problems

zambonir 2021-10-18 21:02:38 UTC #45

That's quite the number, but is it really because of injuries, or is it just because the front offices decided that sort of pitcher usage was efficient (both financially and competitively)?

Certainly a Jose Alvarado type would be a lot less valuable if there was less three-true-outcomes baseball. High walk pitchers are often high strikeout pitchers but if you stop getting as many called strikes...

bkox 2021-10-18 21:16:09 UTC #46

Well I think its both injuries and just the way clubs use pitchers now. 2 pitchers throw a bunch of pitches out of the pen one day... send em to AAA and bring back 2 other guys... rinse and repeat.

I agree. But are we not teaching control now? Or are we ignoring the guys who have control for the fireballers? Are there 350 guys with command to replace the guys who are like Alvarado.. or a Jake Diekman who has had a nice long career despite a career 5BB per nine rate.

andyb 2021-10-18 21:37:16 UTC #47

I think we are teaching control to the fireballers. More damage is done to the control guys that throw strikes, so we prioritizing the guys that can get away with more mistakes in the strike zone like Alvarado.

kmc1019 2021-10-19 15:03:13 UTC #48

O'Hoppe with a good day yesterday and recognition from Baseball America:
Logan O'Hoppe, C, Phillies — Phillies prospect O'Hoppe racked up three hits, including a double, and drove home all three of his team's runs. The 21-year-old, whom the Phillies selected in the 23rd round of the 2018 draft out of high school in New York, made it from High-A Jersey Shore to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. His 17 homers were tied for second in the system behind only outfielder Jhailyn Ortiz.

Others:
Stott stays on high OBP track, 1 for 3 with 2 BB
McArthur: 4 solid innings, 1 ER, 1K
E Miller: forget this outing, 1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 2 K

andyb 2021-10-20 21:12:44 UTC #49

No Australian league this winter:
https://melbourneaces.com.au/news/abl-makes-decision-regarding-2021-22-season/

Mostly a COVID related decision. Probably did not help that teams like the Phillies were less committed this offseason.

Squire 2021-10-21 14:54:28 UTC #50

Is there an AFL cumulative stats site?

bkox 2021-10-21 14:58:39 UTC #51

BBRef updates each day:

andyb 2021-10-21 15:01:12 UTC #52

The official site is here too.

Stats for the other foreign leagues seem a bit harder to find. That convenient Phillies page for all offseason league stats does not seem to have been updated since 2019. Here it is for the future (hopefully):
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi

bkox 2021-10-21 17:15:19 UTC #53

Jonathon Mayo on Bryson Stott:

Stott is now No. 97 on our Top 100 and he’s been the kind of prospect who has flirted with the Top 100 on and off since he was drafted in 2019. And one thing I said on the podcast is that I think he might end up being a better big leaguer than he was ever ranked as a prospect. (That happens a lot!) To answer your question more specifically, I think Stott has an extremely high floor, thanks to his very advanced approach at the plate, knack for contact and above-average defensive skills. I think at the very least, he’s an everyday big leaguer, one who will be ready soon. Ceiling? As I said, it might be higher than expected and he could be the kind of player who puts up a lot better numbers than anticipated, with All-Star type potential not completely unreasonable.

andyb 2021-10-21 17:18:31 UTC #54

That is one of the better assessments I have seen on Stott. I really wish they would dive more into his defense. I suspect that above-average comment above might be thinking of him at 2B rather than SS. If it is about SS, then assessments of his defense are improving.

Austinfan 2021-10-21 17:35:20 UTC #55

Stott only has to be average defensively at SS to be an upgrade over Didi, Segura or Kingery.
Which means he can hold the fort for a year or two for Garcia to arrive, then move to 2B or 3B.
As an average fielder, anything over .750 OPS is fine, that would be good enough for 2-3 WAR.

DurhamBull 2021-10-21 22:33:24 UTC #56

edit: I moved my post to the hot stove thread since I'm getting way off topic

andyb 2021-10-22 11:35:33 UTC #57

O'Hoppe making Marchan look very tradeable:

Austinfan 2021-10-22 13:49:29 UTC #58

Think you want O'Hoppe to start in AAA ball, and you might want him playing another position on his off days (1B, LF) so when you do bring him up, you can get his bat in the lineup for more than 40 games a season.

Marchan would still be an upgrade over Knapp, and I'm not sure he has enough trade value right now to make it worth throwing into a deal as a sweetener, as he adds strength and shows more pop, his value will increase. Depending on his arm strength, you also might want him to throw as a RP on his off days (just kidding, but we have converted SS and catchers to pitcher with some success).

andyb 2021-10-22 16:07:08 UTC #59

I'd still start O'Hoppe at AA as he did not play there long. The end of season AAA tourney was also more of a bonus. This does not mean he stays at AA long. Just that there is no reason to mess with a steady progression. Remember he is a catcher so defense is much more important and harder to learn.

This also means I do NOT proactively play him at other positions. His bat is not that good that you really need to do that. Most catchers learn to play 1B at some point but that is really not that important because O'Hoppe profiles as a guy who can be a 2-way catcher, not just a bet misplaced back there. DH is available too to get him extra plate appearances.

O'Hoppe being a better prospect than Marchan says nothing about rushing his debut. All it says is that good defensive catchers who can't hit are pretty easy to find. Marchan is very good defensively, but that is also very replaceable.

Austinfan 2021-10-22 16:57:25 UTC #60

If O'Hoppe tears up the AFL, he's too good for AA ball.
Marchan actually has good hit skills, rarely strikes out, just needs to continue to add strength and develop consistent gap power.