2020 Phillies Spring Training News, Notes & Discussion

[Squire]

Phillies settled with RHP Hector Neris at 4.6M (and apparently have a $7M Team Option for next year as well)

[andyb]

Room under the threshold up $100K to $6.3 million and change now.

[zambonir]

Interesting about the option. No buyout. So if they choose not to exercise it things would just reset back to the final year of arbitration (or non-tender) right?

So long as he has a healthy, reasonably good year it seems like a no-brainer but also seems like there is no reason for it from Hector's side? Doesn't provide him with any security and is probably not more than he would earn in his last arbitration. Makes him more tradeable too.

[zambonir]

Realmuto's agent's argument for the higher arb award is pretty compelling.

Rosenthal: Flawed arbitration system doesn't always reflect...

Realmuto sought to be compared to all position players because he plays more regularly than most catchers, finishing with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in each of the past four seasons. The last third-time arbitration-eligible catcher to do that in even two straight seasons was Ivan Rodriguez in 1996 and ’97.

They also sought to compare him to Rendon.

Realmuto earned $2.9 million and $6.05 million in his first two years of arbitration. Rendon earned $2.8 million and $5.8 million. As third-time eligible players, their career numbers were eerily similar (Rendon qualified for a fourth year of arbitration last season before becoming a free agent).

PLAYER G HRs RUNS+RBI OPS
Realmuto 685 84 673 .779
Rendon 634 78 694 .812

Yet, Rendon earned $12.3 million as a third-time eligible, and after Thursday’s decision Realmuto will earn $10 million. Considering that Realmuto was the NL Gold Glove at catcher in 2019, a case can be made that he was the more valuable player at the same stage of their careers. Catcher is a more critical and physically demanding defensive position than third base.

The Phillies cannot be accused of low-balling Realmuto – they offered him $11 million before the sides exchanged figures, sources said.

Whatever you think of this analysis, it tells you where Realmuto's side is coming from for an extension. They left money on the table, and if they really think Rendon is a fair comparison they will probably want that 6th or 7th year for sure (or a lot more AAV than the Mauer deal).

[zambonir]

Phillies still playing, 8-8 in the 9th after trailing (I think) 5-3 in the 7th.

Cornelius Randolph (who is not on major league camp roster) got an AB.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, Phillies overcame a 3 run deficit in the 8th by scoring 6 to go up by three. The Phillies pitchers quickly gave up 3 in the bottom of the 8th to make it 8-8 going into the 9th inning. Sanchez started the 8th for the Phillies and faced five hitters, three hits and two walks. He is credited with a third of an inning because they got an out on a runner trying to take an extra base.

Randolph struck out in his first two at bats but in the ninth, he hit into a double play, erasing Bohm, who had lead off the ninth with a hit (his second of the day).

Hammer pitches a 1-2-3 bottom of the ninth to preserve the 8-8 tie. Being spring training, they call it a day. Phillies start the spring schedule with a tie.

[donaldorc]

I hardly recognized any of the names of the players. Guess I don’t keep up enough on prospects.

On the other hand, Franzke and Anderson were in mid-season form on radio.

[LoneStarPhan]

Nick Williams had a double and two walks in three trips to the plate.

Underlining the meaninglessness of reliever stats, Sanchez gets a hold for facing five hitters and giving up 3 hits and 2 walks, while Medina comes on and gets an out but a blown save when the sac fly ties the game.

Of course, spring training game stats really mean very little.

[zambonir]

You can see all the non-roster invitees (both prospects and free agents invites) here

http://m.phillies.mlb.com/phi/roster/nri/

[LoneStarPhan]

Tigers and Phillies use a total of 56 players in the 9 inning game; typical for a spring training game.

Phillies used 9 pitchers and Tigers 8.

[zambonir]

Can't really read anything into the first game but I wonder if they will give Williams a lot of action. Could still trade him, though he's also useful Bruce insurance.

Seems like they give Randolph a bit of action every year too. Like, "you aren't good enough to be in camp or on the 40 but we did take you in the first round, come have a taste. "

[DurhamBull]

I didn't think the Phils were going to give Williams another chance to show he has value at the major league level, but if that was the case I think they would have released him or traded him for whatever they could get. Since he's still under contract, I guess they see some possibility still. I hope it works out; it'd be great if he could return to his 2017 form.

[andyb]

Williams has options. And little trade value after last year (partially due to the way he was used). Why give up an asset?

If there were an injury to a corner outfielder, he still might be our best full time replacement, Bruce included.

[Austinfan]

They may have compared him to Rendon, but it was a meaningless comparison.
You don't get paid in arbitration on career stats, but "what have you done lately."
Rendon was up and down offensively his first four seasons, RC+ 100, 130, 97, 110 then 141, 139.
Realmuto was 89, 111, 107, 126, 108.
While Realmuto plays a more valuable position, he's not in the same class as a hitter.

Which is why you don't even consider giving him more than 5 years, he's not going to move to another position and be more than a 1-2 WAR player.

[phillychuck]

Williams should always hit well in ST because pitchers are working on their stuff, not targeting his weaknesses (chasing lots of pitches outside the zone, breaking balls in general). Especially early in Spring.

Contracts to top players like Realmuto nearly always have sunk costs at the back end. You overpay late for value early. Realmuto reportedly wants 7 years, Phils are currently apparently willing to go 5. Compromise at 6, realizing years 5 and 6 might be negative WAR/$ value, but the first 4 years should be significantly positive if he stays healthy.

[nycphils]

They have no choice but to meet his demands - can you imagine the reaction if he walks and other than a comp pick all we end up with are two (assuming for this year) non-playoff years in exchange for Sanchez (and Alfaro)?

[David_Criss]

Glad see Segura at 3B today and Kinery at 2B yesterday.

[zambonir]

Certainly Williams has more value to the Phillies as depth than he likely has in trade but you never know. A team might have a greater need at the major league level. A bad low-budget team might even be willing to start him. Or the Phillies might need the roster spot (as the Dodgers did with Garlick).

JT's agent seems to be looking at Goldschmidt. Cards gave him 5 years $30 million at 31 years old, so giving the younger JT 5 years $120 (which will break the catcher record) doesn't seem that crazy. And a catcher is certainly more valuable than a 1B, even a slugger. If they go 6 or 7 they can lower the AAV and that obviously has more value than the actual cash.

That a team will get burned at the end is still how the system works (for now). Even though JT didn't play for the Phillies, the Phillies are the team that will be paying to make up for the $ he wasn't able to earn in his early arbitration years, when he was clearly outperforming his salary. That was no less true of Ryan Howard, foolish as the deal may have been.

If Segura is really our 3B how do we think that is going to work? He gets benched or traded in July? Or Kingery, despite, all the talk of consistency and letting him play 2B, goes back to super-subbing (and CF) then?

[zambonir]

Muzziotti and Matt Vierling over from the minors today (guess we're short on CF options over there, huh? ) Gamboa with another appearance, I suppose in theory he could be in the mix for the no-hit utility spot if that's how they want to go.

Phils win 4-3, all four runs in the first inning so some decent pitching. 1-batter three-pitch strikeout save for Singer. Judging by the box Romero and Llovera struggled and Guerra got touched up some but survived (thanks to Singer).

[BostonRoss]

Just for fun, I checked baseball-reference.com to see who Realmuto’s most similar players through age 28 are. The way the do these list, as I understand, is that they consider offense only and do not adjust across eras or ballparks, but they do consider position. Anyway, here is the list. Many of these guys are really not as good as J.T., but the way they do the comparisons isn’t perfect. For some additional information, I included their WAR through age 28, for the next three years (29-31), and the next six years (29-34). J.T. has 17.6 WAR so far in his career.

Miguel Montero (12.3, 3.0, 1.8)
Gabby Hartnett (19.4, 11.6, 25.5)
Rich Gedman (12.2, -0.9, -2.7)
A.J. Pierzynski (11.9, 4.3, 7.4)
Earl Battey (12.2, 5.3, 4.6)
Matt Wieters (15.5, 2.0, 3.1)
Jonathan Lucroy (14.3, 4.5, 2.8)
Mike Lieberthal (8.1, 5.8, 7.4)
Carlton Fisk (22.0, 13.8, 23.8)
Terry Kennedy (12.0, 6.4, 9.7)

The two Hall of Famers, Hartnett and Fisk, had long, productive careers well into their late 30s (in Fisk’s case, into his 40s). The other eight (none of whom accumulated as much WAR as J.T. through age 28) all tailed off significantly, some quite dramatically. Four of them had negative WAR from age 32-34. Two of them never made it to their age 34 season; the two active players are entering their age 34 seasons now, and both are backups. All ten did remain primarily catchers for the rest of their careers.