2020 Phillies Spring Training News, Notes & Discussion

[andyb]

Quinn is out of options so I think the only way he does not make the team is if he is hurt or traded. Even if you thought an extra bat like Garlick or Martini was needed, you might wait till after the season starts to assess. If Quinn is healthy he probably adds more than any other candidate, especially because CF defense is not that strong at the moment (Quinn could get starts in spacious CFs, Haseley might need to be platooned some).

I still think the most likely bench is Knapp, Bruce, Quinn, Harrison, Walker. Maybe Torreyes (Girardi favorite) beats out one of the infielders. Next OF would probably be Garlick if there is an injury.

If the only concern about Quinn is injury you don't replace him with a player with options or one that has cleared waivers until you need that player.

[David_Criss]

Man it feels like we have a thousand outfielders

Harper
Haseley
McCutchen
Bruce
Garlick
Williams
Quinn
Herrera
Martini
Mahtook
Szczur

Moniak is in camp, too. Of all those names, just send Szczur and Moniak over to the minor league camp. They have to be the last two on that list as having any shot. Same with the infield.

Same with the infield: Hall, Williams, Maton and Torreyes are the least likely. I like competition, especially since there is a 26 man. Even if you make the cuts I suggested above you still have 6 battling for 2 OF spots and 4 battling for 1 inf. spot. Hopefully they collected enough to have a diamond in the rough.

[andyb]

There should be 2 infield spots available unless they go with a 3rd OF.

[zambonir]

Oh, Quinn is a lock for sure. He's the 4th OF, even. He'll play CF more often than Bruce will play LF (unless Cutch is hampered).

I don't think they can afford both Harrison and Walker, unless they don't have incentives. Torreyes also has a shot because of the Girardi thing (and being a true SS). Garlick an option if they just want a bat, Gosselin if they want utility/PH. They don't really need a back-up SS but they also probably don't want Segura or Kingery to play there (and certainly not for double-switches).

Don't forget Forsythe too, he might have just as good as shot as the other name vets.

[Austinfan]

Don't forget the split squad games the first couple weeks.
Everyone hits!

By March, the crowds will thin out.

[andyb]

I was thinking they might take both Harrison and Walker for pinch hitting and flexibility. Plus good players in the clubhouse if I recall correctly.

I do think Torreyes does have a shot with the Girardi connection, but then I also note that he is probably not a better SS than either Segura or Kingery (who might be a touch worse on defense but are far better offensively).

Agree that this is a roster that does not need a SS since we have 3 starters who can all play SS fairly credibly. The reserves just need to play 2B and 3B. If Bohm comes up and you move Kingery to CF at that point you might want a backup IF who can play SS credibly that is not starting.

[zambonir]

Phillies win the arbitration hearing.

Phillies beat J.T. Realmuto in salary arbitration hearing

I hope Middleton flew him back and forth to Arizona at least

[andyb]

It they tack on 5 years and $110 million the day after the season starts I think all hard feelings will pass.

[zambonir]

Yeah I don't think there will be any hard feelings. But I'd definitely make that part of the negotiation. Jack up the signing bonus a little bit to cover the fact that they probably would have paid him more had they actually included 2020 in the extension.

There doesn't have to be hard feelings for it to be a difficult sign though. If JT isn't risk-averse, the closer he gets to the open market the better for him.

Anyway, good news for someone like Liriano or Walker too.

[andyb]

Cot's has us $6.2 million under the competitive balance threshold. That uses the midpoint for Neris still. Definitely enough room to fit a couple NR free agents onto the roster. Tommy Hunter's $875K is a nice fit on the late roster moves also.

One interesting thing looking at the 40-man on Cot's is how many players that are on the margins still have options left. Quinn, Guerra and Morgan are out, but most everyone else we might consider sending down to the minors does have options left. Pivetta, Velasquez, and Eflin all have options. So do Williams, Arano, Dominguez, Stock, Davis, De Los Santos, Garcia, Garlick, Irvin, Sanchez, and Romero. One thing Klentak seems to do well is maneuver the end of the 40-man roster to almost exclusively include players with options left.

[zambonir]

For sure. But if JT had gotten that $2 million and we added one reliever and one infielder (assuming 2 million each; Liriano, for instance, would get $1.5 plus incentives) they'd be out of space, to the point where even an injury/call-up would be difficult. So (barring a trade) I think they would have only added one NRI vet and would have been forced to use a minimum guy as either the last reliever or last bench piece. Now they don't have to, and would still have $2 million of wiggle room.

It's possible that Hunter has made it a lot harder for any of those NRI guys to make the team anyway, assuming he's a lock (he could certainly still be released). Would make more sense to have that 8th reliever be younger and/or with options. Guerra just gets DFA'ed if he's not in the mix I guess.

Does Cot's just use the midpoint as a placeholder? Since in reality it's either/or. More players won their arbitrations yesterday but I think Neris will lose too. As with JT he's getting a big enough bump from the Phillies, it's not like they lowballed either of them.

[andyb]

I think Cot's starts with an estimate (probably the MLB Trade Rumors estimate) then switches to the midpoint. Their chart is the most realistic because it does fill in minimum and 40-man salaries in its calculation. The minimum is $535K this year. Liriano's base deal is $1.5 million plus incentives. If he makes the team then our room left will only go down by $965K and not the full $1.5 million.

I assume most of these NR players are in the $1.0-$2.0 million range, so adding a couple is easy. Hunter must have wanted to stay with the Phillies (guilt?, comfort?) and was willing to take the $875K guarantee rather than a larger non guaranteed deal. I suspect the Phillies would not mind giving Hunter a month in XST to round into shape gradually anyway, though that low salary is small enough to hide on the injured list if they need to.

[fish]

It they tack on 5 years and $110 million the day after the season starts I think all hard feelings will pass.

I think there is a real chance that if he's signed through his age 34 season the last 1.5 seasons either becomes an overpay or sunk cost but I guess it needs to be done.

[andyb]

At least there is reason for Realmuto to take a bit less to sign a year early, given the injury risk of a catcher.

I guess the big question at the end of a longer deal is whether Realmuto's offense is good enough to handle a switch to another position. JT seems like he could handle 2B now like Biggio if he had to. In 5 years he still might be quick enough for 3B if it came to that. I think the occasional 1B start now is just because the position is relatively easy to play. Whether he retains the mobility for something more at age 33 or 34 would be the other question (along with the offense to justify that position).

[zambonir]

Yeah the 5th year is just the cost of doing business, but will his agent try for 6? Will we have to overpay to keep it at five (let alone four)? Same agent as Posey, who signed for nine years at age 26 (taking him through his age 34 season, two years left on that deal).

Chooch never made megabucks of course but he was still respectable at that age.

[andyb]

JT is 29 this year, so an additional 5-year deal takes him through age 34. Can't imagine the Phillies going longer than that. Nor should they.

[zambonir]

Heyman, every agent's best friend, says he wants to match Mauer's $23 million and will seek 7 years. If that's really the case you gotta figure 5 years $120-125, $110 won't get it done.

[mdougherty12]

I guess the big question at the end of a longer deal is whether Realmuto's offense is good enough to handle a switch to another position.

There's no guarantee that Realmuto's defense will decline first. Buster Posey still rates as a strong defensive catcher, but his bat has declined precipitously.

[andyb]

No guarantee on anything. Just playing the odds with any catcher though.

[zambonir]

I think you're better off if he can still catch. You just have to accept that you are paying all-star money for a good starter and nothing more. No different than Arrieta this year, or, quite possibly, Cutch next year.

It's not like there aren't tons of 34+ catchers out there. Yadi is 37 years old and making $20 million for 1.3 WAR and 108 starts. Chooch was 3.1 WAR at 35 and 1.5 at 37 (but bad at 36). Brian McCann started to shift from starter to back-up at 33/34 while still making $17 million (and is now done at 35).

If JT is as good as hyped/believed, and as important to the Phillies as they seem to think, 34 is not an issue and giving him the 6-7 years is something they will still have to entertain, if they think other teams might come to play in free agency. He is probably still a better, and less easily replaced, catcher at 33 and 34 than at any other position.

DH should be an interesting variable though.