2020 Phillies Minor League Rosters/Placement Speculation

[andyb]

I bet they push Erik Miller to Clearwater also. Not really much of a push for a polished Stanford guy who has already pitched at Lakewood. Guys like Young and Fanti (in the Clearwater post) are likely not ready or not a priority anyway at the beginning of the year. Miller always had better stuff than a 4th rounder as well, and showed enough at the low minors that his development should be in the higher levels exclusively.

[Squire]

I can buy that. That was a hard call but it seemed like the new model was lower placement but quicker promotions. Where do you think Gowdy starts? Did he earn the promotion just by staying healthy last year?

[andyb]

Gowdy is really tough to predict based on his performance (which might call for him being released more than anything else). His placement will depend more on what the coaches see in him than last year's performance.

20% chance of release
25% Lakewood rotation (if the stuff is back some and they want to really see what he has got)
25% Lakewood bullpen (give him one more chance but others deserve starts though bullpen might mean tandem anyway)
30% Clearwater bullpen (showed enough that they think his stuff will continue to improve and they need to push him to higher levels since the clock will start to run out).

[allentown]

I'm going to say he'll be in the CLW rotation with limited innings per start. He's a big $ signee who's coming back from injury, but eligible for Rule 5 after this season, so they need to see him at a higher level, plus coming back from injury I'd rather (and I hope the Phillies agree) rather see him in warm CLW than in Lakewood NJ.

[baseballoldie]

How about 0% chance he gets released. There is no way the Phillies are going to release a kid whom they paid $3.5 million, been on the injured list for 2 years and just started pitching again last year. Would you release him???? No way.

[fish]

How about 0% chance he gets released. There is no way the Phillies are going to release a kid whom they paid $3.5 million, been on the injured list for 2 years and just started pitching again last year. Would you release him???? No way.

I’ve been pretty down on him, but his last start last year was encouraging and finally started to show a rebound in velocity as the game progressed. I’d bet he’s a tandem starter in Lakewood to start the year.

[andyb]

If he is throwing 86-88 again a few years after surgery he could easily get released. That is not the same pitcher we drafted if that is his status. Injuries happen.

[baseballoldie]

If you were the GM and your team invested $3.5 million in a player, you are saying you would release that player 1 year after coming back from TJ surgery? If so, you wouldn't be a GM for long. There is no way you would throw away that kind of investment by the team. You would, instead, likely invest more on rehab to try to get him back to where he was. There is no chance Gowdy gets released this spring so why even suggest it?

[andyb]

Yes. It is 2.5 years since the surgery. If he is not close to the same player as before the surgery then yes, he should be released regardless of his past bonus.

This is not a recommendation to release him of course (I put a 20% chance on that). It is only to release him IF his stuff remains inferior and he can't get hitters out and doctors don't think he will improve that much. He is 22. At some point you need to move on and give innings to better prospects. He will likely stick for another year because there is little cost to doing so, though whether he gets regular playing time is a whole different question.

[allentown]

I don't see any benefit in releasing him. He has as much of a shot today as whomever else would otherwise be the 6th starter for CLW. He was a successful H.S. pitcher and that was more than just velocity. If velocity stays below 90, the decision point will come when next winter's 40-man roster is finalized and he'll be left exposed to Rule 5, but why would they release him today with the only savings being less than $10K in minor league salary in order to have another look at a $3.5 million bonus baby. He might be 2.5 years post-surgery, but has pitched little since then, so it's not as though he's thrown a lot and not seen a velocity rise. It may be a mental issue of needing to trust the health of his arm enough to just cut loose with his best FB.

[andyb]

The reason he would be released is if there are enough better prospects ahead of him that need innings. You can only stick someone in extended Spring for so long. At some point we had to release Anthony Hewitt too. It should be performance-based of course. He'll get many more chances than the low round picks. He already has.

As I said he probably should not be released now. If there is no improvement this season that would be the most likely time. It has nothing to do with the 40-man roster at all. He has a below zero chance of getting picked now. If he improved to the point he might get picked then obviously we would not be releasing him.

[Philsmania]

I don't think they need to release Gowdy. The question is whether or not they put him on the forty man roster after the season and, by extension, whether or not they roll the dice that another team drafts him in the Rule 5 and subsequently keeps him and develops him into what the Phillies hoped he would be when they drafted him.

[zambonir]

Seems impossible that he'd be drafted in the Rule 5 even if he has a decent season. Putting him in a major league bullpen would kill whatever progress he might have made, and rotation would surely not be viable. The opposite of development. Unless he gets hurt again, then some team could hide him like the Braves did with Biddle.

Playing time doesn't seem that hard to come by though. If he is indeed a flop he probably gets released after the 2021 season. Or thrown into a trade. Even Eshelman got traded.

[Austinfan]

There's no rush to release him, sunk costs are sunk costs.
You need 7-8 SPs at each level in the minors, so there's always slot open due to injury/promotions.
And as long as he shows progress, you keep your fingers crossed.
On the other hand, if he doesn't regain velocity, you don't waste a 40 man roster spot, either.

[zambonir]

You would more typically use the term "sunk cost" to justify releasing him, i.e., you accept that money is gone and invest no further resources trying to recover it.

[Austinfan]

It works both ways.
The draft position only matters in terms of potential upside, but current physical skills should weigh heavier.
The money should be no factor at all.

[allentown]

I noticed that Winkelman shows Gowdy's FB topping out at 93 mph last season. That seems encouraging to me.

pitch data.xlsx

[fish]

I noticed that Winkelman shows Gowdy's FB topping out at 93 mph last season. That seems encouraging to me.

If you want to feel a little better about Gowdy, watch his last start on milb.tv. In his last few innings he topped out at 94.

[Austinfan]

The increase in velocity over the season is a good sign, suggests his arm is coming around.
If he hit his peak early then faded that would be more worrisome.

As a LH pitcher with good secondary stuff, he only needs to throw in the 91-93, touch 95 range or so.
Hamels at his peak averaged 92.5 or so.
If Gowdy's arm is 100%, he should add 1-2 MPH the next few years.
Hamels, starting in 2008, 90.6, 90.9, 92.6, 92.7, 92.4, 92.6, 92.2, 93.2, 93.2, 93.7

[baseballoldie]

Gowdy is RH