2020 Phillies Manager Rumors and Speculation

[zambonir]

Jon Morosi on Twitter

Potential candidates to replace Gabe Kapler as Phillies manager

[julio]

Tweaked the thread title - just in case this manager- changing starts to come fast and furious!

[zambonir]

I don't often say this, but Brookover makes a fair point here in stumping for Wathan and Thomson as potential candidates - both the Braves and the Cardinals are managed by longtime organization men who kind of accidentally got the job and stuck (of course we could be in Year 5 of the Mackanin era now too).

Phillies fired Gabe Kapler for his lack of managerial experience and inability...

[andyb]

That Salisbury list was good, though probably focused too heavily on the obvious suspects. I am guessing there will be some more new names thrown around. Maddon of course is intriguing with his track record and I guess I favor him over other veteran managers. Ibanez might be the intriguing name without experience on that list.

[zambonir]

Ibanez has already said he's not interviewing for manager jobs, I doubt there's any connection to the Phillies (let alone the current regime) that would change that. Seems like he either wants to be a GM or figures he might manage the Dodgers eventually.

We'll see how many interviews Maddon really goes on. I would think the Angels owner won't have a problem meeting his number.

If Morosi is right about them wanting someone with actual MLB managing experience then you've got a somewhat smaller list though guys like Farrell and Chip Hale and Ron Washington still count (the likes of Manny Acta and Fredi Gonzalez would too).

[andyb]

Manny Acta was kind of an analytics guy before his time. The Nats were not really good enough when he managed them. And then Cleveland gave him a pretty short leash before they fired him. I have no idea what his reputation is these days though he might be someone that could appeal to a Klentak.

[saycheese]

I really think its going to be Dusty Wathan. They will interview some high dollar high named guys but in the end they will stay the course and choose somebody from the organization.

[zambonir]

Yeah I like Acta as a Francona/A.J. Hinch/Joe Torre type who finally gets it right.

But given that this firing was done by Middleton, and done in part to appease the fans, the same will likely be true of the hire. That probably means someone who has already won in the big leagues (Ausmus, Farrell) if not the biggest brand name (i.e. Showalter, Madden, Girardi).

I do think Wathan is the one guy they can probably get away with who doesn't have experience. He's managed, he's got a famous last name, the die-hard portion of the fan base (and most media) would be okay with it and it would make sense with the return of all the coaches. It's hard to see him as a true "organization man" at this point though - that was Amaro and Joe Jordan's organization.

Regardless of how the process is actually conducted, I don't think they can sell the fan base on the idea of Klentak hiring another first-timer, be it Raul Ibanez or one of the hot coaches from a good organization.

[andyb]

That is probably right on first-timers, though I'd also agree that Wathan has enough experience and a pretty good track record that he would probably be accepted. Of the older candidates I don't think they should go with Showalter. I think they need someone that is conversant with analytics like Maddon or Girardi. If they are willing to go $5 million plus a year they might get one of them. No idea if that would be the right choice, but it might actually be good for Klentak to have an older manager to get away from the Kapler criticism.

I just want a manager with a history of their team playing better than they should. That is probably Maddon except for the last couple of years (and any manager can lose effectiveness over time).

[bigegypt0417]

Of the older candidates I don't think they should go with Showalter. I think they need someone that is conversant with analytics like Maddon or Girardi.

I'm 100% in agreement on Showalter. He always has some short term success followed by not so much success.

I would really like Girardi.

[flyers19rw]

After going for a guy with only one season of minor league ball as a manager which ended up in a bad season, it would make sense for the Phillies to hire someone with MLB experience. This will be Kentak's last hire if this one goes awry; probably MacPhail's as well. Fitting in with the PTB will be huge since collective decision making seems to be the vogue thing these days. For that reason, to me, Showalter looks like the top candidate and the Phillies might be tops on his list as well. Time will tell.

[zambonir]

I don't feel like short-term success is necessarily a bad thing here. Someone has to come in and win right away with a roster that is at least half-built to only win for two years. The knock on Showalter is he never got any of his teams over the top (and two of them won right after he left). The Orioles, of course, were just in a rough division. But for sure, going with him (and also Baker) would basically handcuff the front office side of the equation, whereas Girardi and Maddon would push back now and then, but be collaborative.

I'm still not sure Girardi was a great manager and the knock on him was the Yankees' young players needed a different kind of voice. But again - our play is more short-term. We don't have young players (I guess by 2021 we will).

The real question is have the Phillies put themselves behind the other teams? Yeah, nobody's hired yet, money (and talent) talks, and any of these managers may also use the Phillies' interest to drive up their potential salaries (which means they at least have to interview, and if they interview, they can still be hired). But it is a bit of a three-card monte game here - could easily be Maddon to Angels, Girardi to Mets and suddenly we're looking at Buck or Ausmus.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I was in favor of Wathan (over Kapler) the last time we hired a manager. I’m still feeling like Wathan might be the best choice. I feel like there is baggage with the choices of managers with previous MLB managing experience. Not sure how well Dusty does with the press, however. That might be an important factor for the next guy in charge - given the expectations to contend (realistic or not).

[BostonRoss]

I don’t think a manager named Dusty has ever won a World Series.

[zambonir]

haha.

I wonder if the coaching thing is less of a big deal, once everything plays out. With seven other managerial openings it's possible one or more of our guys is still offered a promotion or raise by another team that they're allowed to take (depending on their contract). It's also possible Wathan may move on if he doesn't get the manager job. Thomson probably get an interview too. And in Dickerson and Thomson they have guys who are already connected to top candidates.

Was interesting to see Machado lobby for Buck in San Diego, and that Buck is apparently not a candidate. Wonder how Harper would feel about Dusty.

[nycphils]

I desperately do not want Dusty Baker – we do not need someone to overuse our pitchers arms (like Nola) so badly that they are ruined

[zambonir]

I really can't imagine they'd go for him. In addition to that pitching history (which at this point is probably both apocryphal and ancient history not sure it was ever a factor at his last two jobs) he's 70 years old, he's not analytics-minded and he's as quirky as Kapler, in his own way (which I love about him, mind you).

And, sad but true: when I see Klentak, MacPhail and Middleton up on a podium, and combine that with Phillies' history, I don't picture an African-American in the dugout. We've talked about that history and speculated about the team's handling of African-American players; well, while it's hard to say for sure, it looks to me like of the 17 people in the Phillies' baseball operations department, everyone but Velandia and the Spanish language interpreter is white, and I doubt the scouting, development and analytics department is any different. Not one of the coaches was African-American either (two Latin-American).

Teams are still expected to interview minority candidates of course. For the Phillies that was Samuel and Velandia last time. For show?

[nycphils]

In addition to that pitching history (which at this point is probably both apocryphal and ancient history not sure it was ever a factor at his last two jobs)

In addition to the legendary abuse of Wood and Pryor, here is an example that he hasn’t truly cleaned up his act (from mid august 2017 with the Nats):

The Nationals starting staff has averaged 100.5 pitches per outing this year, second only to the Boston Red Sox starters. They’ve thrown 100-plus pitches in 76 games. The next highest total in the National League is Arizona, with 57.
There is great debate over the magic acceptable number of pitches to throw in a start but some agreement that 120 is a good indicator of pressing luck. The Nationals have exceeded that number four times. The San Diego Padres are the only other staff with at least two such occurrences.

NO THANKS.

[zambonir]

Counterpoint.

Best of BP 2017: Dusty Baker's Outdated Reputation - Baseball Prospectus

But mostly, I'm just not sure there's any real science to pitch counts, especially without context.

[schillingfan]

With all emotion and not fact he ruined Mark Prior’s career and I will not forgive Dusty Baker for that.