2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[fish]

I think Hector is still better than fungible/sofa-cushion. That $7 million is still less than what we gave Hunter and Neshek, though those were FA overpays when we stunk (and then we were suppose to flip them when the team was out of it in 2018, oops).

Yes, Hector is a good bullpen pitcher, and in this Phillies bullpen worth every penny. But if he were on the Rays, they wouldn't consider paying him because they know they can find a guy to perform like him for much less. A Klentak lead phillies team wouldn't have that luxury.

[zambonir]

Sure, the Rays probably would have traded Hector last year. Sometimes being broke makes you smart. We're still waiting for the Phillies to have Moneyball smarts combined with actual money, like a lot of other teams we can name.

But paying him $7 million next year will only make him the fifth-highest paid reliever we've had in the last three seasons, and we get him for that amount because he we got him to pass up arbitration last year.

It would have been a fascinating case, really, he was coming off a near-elite year (in terms of WHIP) and he has the 9th-inning experience and saves arbitrators still value more than peripherals or leverage patterns. If they take him to arb now maybe it saves $500K. Or maybe they extend him again.

I don't think we have to say "Klentak-led Phillies team" though. We could hire the next Andrew Friedman or Theo Epstein next week and they still wouldn't be able to change things in two seasons, unless MIddleton hires them explicitly to rebuild. In which case you obviously trade Hector, among many others. But if we're still trying to win, any organization/GM can still use a $7 million late-inning reliever. We just need a few more of them, and cheaper ones.

[DurhamBull]

Sure, the Rays probably would have traded Hector last year. Sometimes being broke makes you smart. We're still waiting for the Phillies to have Moneyball smarts combined with actual money, like a lot of other teams we can name.

IMO this sums up the big picture beautifully. I'm partial to the Rays because they're the Durham Bulls' parent club, but I find it interesting (and fun!) that the Bulls are almost always in the hunt for a championship. The Bulls & Rays comport themselves very well considering their relative lack of money.

The Bulls have done very well for themselves in the last 10 years:

Durham Bulls | Season by season records

[Squire]

Breen and apparently Brookover now saying a GM change is imminent. Inky article says that they believe they have too many people in the analytics department.

https://twitter.com/matt_breen/status/1311282643569442821

[allentown]

I don't think we have to say "Klentak-led Phillies team" though. We could hire the next Andrew Friedman or Theo Epstein next week and they still wouldn't be able to change things in two seasons, unless MIddleton hires them explicitly to rebuild.

I highlight this, and will also mention a comment above that "They need to bring in a G a M who can build a farm system, trade anyone they can for prospects, and finally do it right, if they spend 2-3 years in the wilderness, so what,". In reality, GMs don't build the farm. They can avoid raiding the farm, as Wade was willing to do -- allowing the farm to lead the way to 2008 and the golden age; their biggest role is to build an organization of baseball professionals who have the ability and our given the freedom and $ to build the farm. Klentak has done neither. He has raided top prospects from the farm to do no better than be 'respectable' at the MLB level (trading some future for the present is ok if you can score in the present. With an owner allowing him to spend up to the cap, he could have achieved respectability -- should have achieved a winning record, with FAs while allowing the farm to improve and feed the MLB Phillies), and his organization hasn't (yet?) produced positive results on the farm. Under his watch, the farm has slipped in quality to bottom 6 in baseball. It holds no players who seem to be future stars. The international program is a disaster, failing at even the elementary task of knowing the true age of this past year's highest bonus signee and then not even being able to decrease the bonus, when the lied about his age was exposed. He has had five years and hasn't fixed the international problems. They seem, in fact, to be worsening. He has given too much rein to an analytics team, which has yet to prove itself.

[allentown]

Breen and apparently Brookover now saying a GM change is imminent. Inky article says that they believe they have too many people in the analytics department.

They have too many people a lot of places, such as the senior special advisors. Quantity does not replace quality and too many voices leads to excessive politics rather than better decisions. It just becomes a useless bureaucracy. We are an organization at war with itself: the bright analytics types and the baseball people hired to be their translators vs the old fossils. That leaves MacPhail and Middleton to referee between the two groups and I don't think either has the ability to do that.

[zambonir]

I don't know if it's fair to say Klentak destroyed the farm - the system's overall ranking dropped once the bill came due for the Gillick and Amaro era, and its decent ranking during Klentak's first few seasons were still on the strength of mostly guys the Phillies traded for who simply flopped. What he actually built from 2016-2020 might not actually be terrible, but for a really weak first year. But then it was further undercut but signing QO FAs and last year's trades.

Last I heard we actually didn't have too many people in the analytics department, the signature analytics franchises still have way more. We just don't have the right people, or the right command structure. That this stuff is coming from Brookover suggests that whatever is left of the old-school TPTB mentality - essentially Gillick is now Dallas Green - is returning to the fore, and that there are people with some sway in that front office who never really accepted that Klentak's people were in charge. To be fair, they haven't shown they are that good at their job, but a dysfunctional franchise doesn't let even good people succeed - as we just saw with our new manager this season.

[zambonir]

Having now read this story, it doesn't actually say they have too many people in the analytics department, or anything about the structure and operations of the front office. All it implies is that, having built up the analytics department, they need to lay off people in other departments as part of the cuts. Now, that doesn't mean they won't also lay off analytics people (none of the baseball cuts can happen now anyway), but the stronger suggestion here is that longtime employees and non-baseball employees are worried they will lose their job because the number of desk jockeys in the baseball department is so much bigger than it used to be.

The employees are nervous because it appears as if layoffs are imminent after a letter to full-time employees Tuesday that offered a larger buyout package than the one they received two weeks ago. The Phillies are trying to avert as many layoffs as possible through their voluntary separation program.

“I was told they have way too many people after building up the analytics department,” the source said.

Baseball source: ‘John Middleton wrestles with some of the simplest decisions’ |...

[allentown]

Having now read this story, it doesn't actually say they have too many people in the analytics department, or anything about the structure and operations of the front office. All it implies is that, having built up the analytics department, they need to lay off people in other departments as part of the cuts.

I didn't read the article that way at all. Another article stated that the first cuts would be to the non-baseball side of the organization, because the baseball side is under contracts which don't end until some time in November, I assume at the official turn from 2020 season to 2021 season.

What was said in the article you cite was: "“I was told they have way too many people after building up the analytics department,” the source said". To me that says they are about to reduce staff in the analytics department. I've read it several times, but to my mind, and perhaps my bias is showing, that is by far the likeliest way to read this. Doesn't mean the source is correct, but I strongly believe that is what the source meant to say.

Edit: The headline likely not written by the author, but the headline writer certainly is no fan of Middleton. That is flat out insulting.
'

[fish]

What was said in the article you cite was: "“I was told they have way too many people after building up the analytics department,” the source said". To me that says they are about to reduce staff in the analytics department. I've read it several times, but to my mind, and perhaps my bias is showing, that is by far the likeliest way to read this. Doesn't mean the source is correct, but I strongly believe that is what the source meant to say.

They are near the top of analytical staffing, like top 5. You'd think with all those brains someone would have figured out the winning formula by now.

[zambonir]

I thought they were still firmly middle-of the pack. Prior to this season it was just "more than a dozen," a bunch of teams are in the 20-30 person range.

‘This is like an arms race in baseball’: The challenging analytics question the...

In any case, the article (which is really just a few paragraphs in a newsletter) still doesn't really address anything other than staffing per se. To me the context is still how the team needs to cut costs, not how they need to overhaul operations reduce the influence of analytics. But the source is still probably an old-schooler.

I don't think that headline is bias, it's just attention-grabbing (even though it was also written for email more than the web). It's also not wrong. Middleton's process is just terrible. Make the call himself, let MacPhail make the call, don't make the call by committee or days/weeks of "research." If he really needs that much research then he is too detached from the team and if he is too detached from the team he shouldn't be overruling the people who actually work there.

I was kind of hoping Klentak would stay tbh, simply because I don't have faith in them making the right move, on Zoom, during this pandemic, while still paying the current front office's salaries for two years amidst other cuts. The only good outcome from this delay IMO would be if he decides to change Presidents too. Otherwise Gillick, Middleton and MacPhail are making the calls. MTNPTB, same as the old PTB.

[Austinfan]

How many analytics people do you need, unless you have a bunch of interns coding off game film - and I thought there were companies already doing that.

Analytics aren't that complicated in the day of canned statistical packages, you should only need a few guys to set up the programs, automate the data feeds, then interpret the results.

[allentown]

You don't have to be nearly that efficient, when the executives whom your department reports to basically have no understanding of statistics and just see it as an exotic, cutting edge, magical tool.

[zambonir]

I think the point is you don't want them to be canned. There are coders, other engineers (essentially IT guys), analysts, video loggers. You still want people who are considered scouts working in that department (many teams now do all their pro scouting by video and data instead of sending guys to games). Some might only do pitching and others only hitting (or defense).

Of course with the Phillies it's been hard to tell whether their problem is the actual analytics department or their inability to sell, communicate and implement the interpretation of the data. Or to stay committed to any consistent way of doing things. Except it's probably not that hard to tell. I'm sure their employees are reasonably good at their jobs. They have tech guys with no baseball background as well as the baseball people (including former bloggers and such). But their bosses can't make it work.

[andyb]

They are doing a lot of things like measuring spin rate and mapping players around each batted ball three dimensionally. If one wants to be cutting edge you probably need lots of analytics people. Of course the whole lot of them probably cost less than an injured reliever on the disabled list all year.

What the Phillies spend on analytics is not the issue. Maybe they could be more efficient. There is lots of pooled data after all (no competitive advantage but saves money). The issue is really whether they are making good decisions about the data.

I would hope that any new GM does not change the overall analytics focus. I just hope they have better leadership and decision-making.

[fish]

I mis-remembered the last count I had read. Last October the Athletic reported the Phil's analytics department had 10 people. The Dodgers and Yankees had 20.

[zambonir]

Hey, technically, you could say no team has grown their analytics department more in the past five years. By 900%, at least!

[gmwannabe]

tell the phillies to just go back to baseball.
gm

[allentown]

I think the point is you don't want them to be canned. There are coders, other engineers (essentially IT guys), analysts, video loggers. You still want people who are considered scouts working in that department (many teams now do all their pro scouting by video and data instead of sending guys to games). Some might only do pitching and others only hitting (or defense).

Of course with the Phillies it's been hard to tell whether their problem is the actual analytics department or their inability to sell, communicate and implement the interpretation of the data. Or to stay committed to any consistent way of doing things. Except it's probably not that hard to tell. I'm sure their employees are reasonably good at their jobs. They have tech guys with no baseball background as well as the baseball people (including former bloggers and such). But their bosses can't make it work.

Perhaps the solution is that the analytics department's influence over decision-making should follow, rather than lead the demonstration that their analyses can actually improve decisions on which prospects to draft, which FA to sign, which AAAA guys are most worth a spot, who should be on the active roster, on-field decisions, and hitting/pitching philosophy. Our current approach seems to be fad chasing, rather than considering what will work best for the talent we have on our active roster.

[zambonir]

Our current approach seems to be fad chasing, rather than considering what will work best for the talent we have on our active roster.

I would also suggest this is where Middleton's impatience and love of shiny objects interfere. The Rays win with a $70 million payroll because they mold, sign, develop and uncover players who work for their system. We - Klentak included obviously - didn't seem to consider any other approach besides signing or trading for All-Stars. I guess we'll get to see the other method next year if they really cut payroll!

But we still haven't seen the Phillies' attempts to do things like Tampa or LA or Houston does (multi-position players, unorthodox bullpen utilization, not always emphasizing talented defenders, overhauling starting pitcher approaches) pay off. Quite the opposite really, as moving Hoskins, trying to change Eflin (plus believing they had unlocked Pivetta) and, at this point, Kingery, are three of the biggest failures of Klentak's tenure.