2020 Philadelphia Phillies Season News/Notes/Discussion

[flyers19rw]

Until Hasely, Quinn, Stott and Bohm assert themselves, the only way to improve is by FA. The farm isn’t producing the necessary pitching. Add a couple of decent middle of the rotation SPs with a retained Realmuto and the Phillies have the makings of a 90 or so game winning club

[gmwannabe]

i would also use the young kids at this point. They(Phils) are sinking fast and why keep running the same incompetent relievers out there. give the kids some experience for the next few years. i think they need some starter as well.
gm

[Austinfan]

Add a couple middle of the rotation SPs?]
What's the going rate for a reliable #3 in FA, $15M a year?

[Philsmania]

Nah. Relievers are unpredictable. He was great for Milwaukee for four weeks and he's sucked for us for two weeks, does that mean he's gonna suck for two more weeks or can he figure it out?

Plus he's got a club option for next year. I'd probably still exercise it unless he's hurt, it's not expensive. Hembree will probably be back too. We didn't give up the assets we did for those guys to only have them for four weeks. What are we gonna do, non-tender/non-option them and then spend $10 million on the next Tommy Hunter or David Robertson?

Rumor has it we have a pretty good pitching coach, maybe he should fix them.

That is true. Reliever have it one year, lose it the next, get it back the next. How many times have we seen the Phillies sign a reliever with a good track record, only to see him bomb for us in his one season here but then rediscover his mojo at his next stop?

[Jeff05]

If anyone is interested, The Athletic is currently offering a subscription rate of $1 a month for the next six months, after which you can continue at the usual rate or opt out.

[fish]

I'm so disgruntled with the mess of the outcome of Klentak's rebuild that I'm rooting for a .500 or worse outcome to prevent any back-patting from management for a job half-done. What does making the playoffs mean if there isn't anything to look forward to except an early bounce from bullpen losses.

[flyers19rw]

$12-15M for a three and a four. In other words, Arietta, Neris, and Robertson’s money. The team has no other choice but to go into the FA market for those arms since the internal improvements aren’t there. The VV experiment should be over. Eflin as a five is fine. Howard’s shoulder messes up things.

[andyb]

This is not a deep free agent class. Marcus Stroman is probably the guy they will target and he'll likely be a bit overpriced. One of the reasons we kept giving Eflin, Velasquez, and Pivetta more chances is that they were inexpensive and had potential. It is hard to add $15 million 3rd starters when they don't grow on trees. We moved on from Pivetta, but Eflin and Velasquez still lurk as lower cost options that are mediocre. We'll probably hold onto both of them and neither is part of a good rotation (but they are all we have for modest dollars).

[zambonir]

$12-15M for a three and a four. In other words, Arietta, Neris, and Robertson’s money. The team has no other choice but to go into the FA market for those arms since the internal improvements aren’t there. The VV experiment should be over. Eflin as a five is fine. Howard’s shoulder messes up things.

Neris isn't going to be gone. He makes $4.6 million now and is locked up for $7 million next year, or they can decline and pay him something in between in arbitration. Also, don't know if you've noticed - he's our best reliever! (Except Alvarez.)

Given how things have gone this year I'd say you need to use Robertson's money on another Robertson. And you have to use half of Arrieta's money on JT. If Howard can't pitch that's a pretty big problem. They will sign one starter; the second one will be more of a Drew Smyly type or they will consider Suarez or Romero. A trade is possible of course.

You don't have to have a good 5th starter in a normal season. Heck, we don't have especially good 4th or 5th starters now (Howard is certainly not good yet) and we're still above .500 and have a better rotation than the Braves or Nats and people think the bullpen is our problem.

I do think it might be time to cut loose Velasquez just because he won't be cheap anymore. If it's a choice between him and Phelps I go with the reliever. You can find someone else who does what VV and Pivetta have done for us on the open market for $2 million. Vince costs a lot more than that, Pivetta never did.

[mdougherty12]

Projected free agents for the coming off-season from MLB Trade Rumors:

2020-21 MLB Free Agents

[zambonir]

Gelb thinks Vince is a fait accompli

So the Phillies will need Jake Arrieta, their $75 million pitcher whose unceremonious Phillies career is near an end. They will need Vince Velasquez, who wasn’t good Monday and will make at least two more starts in 2020. His Phillies career, so promising at the beginning, is almost over, too.

If Phillies reach deep to make postseason, is that alone good enough in 2020?

I feel like the Phillies sold us, and themselves, a bill of goods this year.

That’s the thing. The Phillies could go 7-7 to finish 30-30 and that probably puts them in the eight-team National League field. Even 6-8 for a 29-31 record could be good enough. They hold just about every tiebreaker because of their strong divisional record. But, how satisfying is it? Were the Phillies and their franchise-record payroll designed to just make the postseason or to advance deep into it?

I mean, they were designed to advance deep into the post-season prior to 2019, but once the bottom fell out of that goal, very few people thought they could do it this season. Most pundits and oddmaskers predicted another 3rd or 4th place finish, maybe 84-86 wins. Wild card at best. And that's what we wound up getting, except with an expanded playoff that lets you get in at .500. Before the Marlins series and the injures they were probably on pace to be an 86-87 win team (32-28).

If Middleton's refusal to pay the luxury tax was essentially a challenge to Klentak - "we spent all this money, make it work" he should probably fire him, though I suspect Klentak wouldn't have accumulated all those obligations w/o Middleton pushing for it. If it was more of a tacit admission that he didn't think this team was anything more than a fringe contender and therefore not worth the $, he probably won't (or should have last year).

But if they really want to make run over the next three years, they either gotta find a creative way to shed payroll or go into the tax. One year before the new CBA won't kill them. By 2023 maybe they don't have to pay it, maybe they do, or maybe they're trading Nola and JT that season anyway.

[andyb]

This is the conundrum of a team that makes short term moves designed to compete immediately (Segura, Realmuto) and they don't compete in that time period. After that you simply don't have the young cost-controlled starters that can contribute to a team in the future.

We made a bet that Eflin, Velasquez, Pivetta, Neris, and Hoskins were going to be important contributors at a low cost to a playoff team. At the same time we bet that Crawford, Alfaro, Nick Williams, and others were not going to be future contributors. The guys we bet on are arguably worse than the group we did not bet on. Even Hoskins is not a great bet if his defense gives back some of his offensive benefit (which could be an issue if Bohm is a 4 oWAR player and a -2 dWAR player. The result is not much better than Brad Miller.

The only way to extend this current moment is with money if they can find a way to do it that does not affect future talent (i.e. we should not lose any more draft picks). I think the answer to the question in bold above is that this team was designed to advance deep into the playoffs and came up far short. Part of the reason why is bad trades and talent evaluation. Only a tiny bit was spending as a couple of relievers this season would only have made us marginally better. We just need to be better at player evaluation and development than we have in the last few years.

[flyers19rw]

Neris isn't worth half of $7M. Him being the "best reliever" on this team is akin to being the tallest midget in the circus. Actually I wouldn't give Neris that award. Others have performed better. Arietta is getting $20M salty and a $25M cap hit. That's off of the books. The problem with Robertson is the problem with relievers being paid $10M per- its too risky and too expensive. The VV experiment should be over and write off as a failure. Between Arietta, Robertson, Neris, VV and what the club is paying towards Jay Bruce, you're getting in the area of $45-50M. If Klentak can't resign JT and find two middle of the rotation starters and a couple of RPs, he ought to be fired.

[andyb]

No judgement yet on whether Hoskins will need TJ surgery. Gregorius was out about 7 months total with his. If that happened with Hoskins he is probably missing April of next year but that is it. Maybe a bit less if there still is a DH in the National League. Non-throwing arm at least.

Also in the news, Quinn is back today. No word on the corresponding move (Garlick or Torreyes?).

[Philsmania]

Neris isn't worth half of $7M. Him being the "best reliever" on this team is akin to being the tallest midget in the circus. Actually I wouldn't give Neris that award. Others have performed better. Arietta is getting $20M salty and a $25M cap hit. That's off of the books. The problem with Robertson is the problem with relievers being paid $10M per- its too risky and too expensive. The VV experiment should be over and write off as a failure. Between Arietta, Robertson, Neris, VV and what the club is paying towards Jay Bruce, you're getting in the area of $45-50M. If Klentak can't resign JT and find two middle of the rotation starters and a couple of RPs, he ought to be fired.

I would not pick up Robertson's option but I might try to bring him back on a lesser contract since he might be a good bounceback candidate.

According to Cots, Neris is a club option with no buyout. Does that mean that they can simply decline it and let him go?

I would nontender Velasquez. At this point, I think he is what he is and I would not worry about someone else unlocking his potential.

[andyb]

If they decline Neris' option he would still be eligible for arbitration for 1 more year unless they non-tendered him. His arbitration award might be a bit less than $7 million off this year, but probably not much less since he would be due a raise from the $4.6 million. If they non-tender him, they need to figure out if they can get someone better for that same $6-$7 million.

[andyb]

I would nontender Velasquez. At this point, I think he is what he is and I would not worry about someone else unlocking his potential.

Velasquez almost certainly would be non-tendered. It would still be possible for him to come back on a lesser deal. If he was still happy here and wanted to take a $2-$3 million contract with incentives it is possible the Phillies might say yes.

[fish]

If he was still happy here and wanted to take a $2-$3 million contract with incentives it is possible the Phillies might say yes.

If he does it’s because the same GM is here. The way he plods through games is a morale killer, to the point he can’t even be considered a viable bullpen option.

[andyb]

If we want him to be in the bullpen then we need to develop him for that role.

Main point is we have no good options. Velasquez is Drew Smyly now. You give him a cheap contract on the hope he might succeed. But you give 3 other pitchers similar cheap contracts because most of them won't and you will need to cut loose the extra arms. Eflin has given us 5 years at a 4.75 ERA so he is really not that much better. Howard is hurt. Cole Irvin and Ramon Rosso are not good enough. I kind of like Jojo Romero in the short relief role and wonder if he is better suited to that than start.

We have 2 starters. That is a problem that money alone can't solve. We need multiple options and need to choose well.

[zambonir]

Neris isn't worth half of $7M. Him being the "best reliever" on this team is akin to being the tallest midget in the circus. Actually I wouldn't give Neris that award.

I think you are misreading what players are actually worth, more than misreading Neris's performance/value. $7 million is a middle reliever's salary. Neris isn't having a great year but it's not even a real year, and he was all-star caliber last season. You cut him loose and you just wind up signing some other guy who is the equivalent of Neris or 2017 Hunter, except we haven't watched him before.

We also need $ for a shortstop, potentially (and more than we are paying Didi now if we want him back, or want someone else good). Just going with Kingery and Segura as the middle infield won't be a contending team, even with Bohm, a new pitcher and JT coming back.

Robertson is expected to take a minor league deal, a la Brandon Morrow. I think it will probably be with us.