2020 MLB Trade Deadline News & Speculation

[zambonir]

Less than three weeks away now. Last year we started on June 30.

I'd say this changes everything, even though it's still going to be hard to scout guys.

Two weeks ago, [Baltimore GM Mike Elias] dealt veteran lefty Richard Bleier to the Marlins for a player to be named, which means only that the player the Orioles will receive is a minor leaguer who wasn’t part of Miami’s training-camp pool.

Meet the Orioles reliever who could provide significant help to the Phillies’...

One thing we know: Givens has been on the Phillies’ radar before, as recently as last summer. Klentak has a history with him, too. He was the Orioles’ director of baseball operations when Baltimore drafted Givens as a shortstop in 2009.

[andyb]

But the Orioles would actually be IN the playoffs if they started today.

At least it is good news that they are allowing all sorts of PTBNL trades for players off of the 60-man list. Might make things confusing of course if there are major trades where the big pieces can't be announced. Guessing they will leak of course.

[Austinfan]

Question is whether the Phillies will be buyers or sellers.

[andyb]

Just not sure we want Klentak to do the dealing here given his mixed record.

It is hard to imagine the Phillies adding more than a few minor arms in the bullpen and there is probably a way to do that without hitting the salary cap if they can offload a salary to somebody (which would cost us an extra prospect too).

The bigger question is if we are sellers. Remember that JT has a very reasonable salary this year. Potentially he is worth a great deal in the trade market. A bold GM might deal him for a couple of high end prospects and then still try to re-sign him in free agency. That would be a Yankees type move. Didn't they do that with Chapman a few years ago?

[Philsmania]

Just not sure we want Klentak to do the dealing here given his mixed record.

It is hard to imagine the Phillies adding more than a few minor arms in the bullpen and there is probably a way to do that without hitting the salary cap if they can offload a salary to somebody (which would cost us an extra prospect too).

The bigger question is if we are sellers. Remember that JT has a very reasonable salary this year. Potentially he is worth a great deal in the trade market. A bold GM might deal him for a couple of high end prospects and then still try to re-sign him in free agency. That would be a Yankees type move. Didn't they do that with Chapman a few years ago?

I was thinking the same thing. However, much depends upon whether or not Klentak and, perhaps, MacPhail are lame ducks at that point. Amaro was a lame duck when he swung the Hamels deal but many think GIllick actually orchestrated that one.

If they are not going to try to resign Realmuto until the offseason, yeah, I wonder if they would deal him and hope to get him back as a FA this winter (probably fat chance).

[zambonir]

There's no chance Klentak and MacPhail are going to be lame ducks in 14 days, and probably not in two months either. Amaro was already actually reporting to Gillick (rather than Monty) when they made the Hamels deal. But given the pandemic I think these guys will finish their contracts. The weird season gives Middleton cover.

And firing them gives Middleton no cover, i.e., it's not going to be, "thank God our owner did what had to be done" the way it was last year with the manager. More like, "we have a terrible owner who let these two people fail for five years."

And yes the Orioles are a playoff team right now, as are the Marlins, so we can't even say the Phillies can't beat the bad teams. But there's no way Mike Elias is going to take his eyes off the long-term rebuilding plan. And at this time last year (standings-wise) the Mariners were also a playoff team (and the Nats were not).

It's really rare to do the deadline trade/bring a player back thing, but yes, the Yankees did do it. Our GM is not that bold - plus he'd be crucified by most fans. The return probably won't be that much bigger than a QO compensation pick, especially when you consider the added value of A) having him in the line-up the rest of the year and B) keeping exclusive rights to re-sign him for a while. It's also not impossible he wouldn't take the QO, if the market starts to look shaky (even if the Betts signing gives him hope).

There's also just no way the Phillies will be far enough out of it to be full-on sellers. The team is not that bad. They are 5-8 now, would 10-16 even be enough to tank the season?

[andyb]

The most likely situation has always been that they do very little. That includes firing Klentak as well as any major trades.

That is a very different question than what they SHOULD do. If they could get 2 top 100 prospects for JT and they are 10-16 that might be a deal they should do. This team is probably not good enough to do much in the playoffs even if they back in with a .500 record.

Now if the potential return for JT is low (because other teams might think it is 50-50 we even have a World Series this year) then you don't do it. I consider all options though if I were GM. The evaluation of Klentak also should happen regardless. It is probably a record of mediocre drafting and an uneven but necessary implementation of advanced analytics. As for trades, the Crawford-Segura trade was horrifically bad. We also seem to find ways to sell low on some of our extra pieces (like the upcoming Nick Williams trade). The Realmuto trade was better, but if they don't make the playoffs in the 2 years they have him then it too was a mistake.

[Philsmania]

And firing them gives Middleton no cover, i.e., it's not going to be, "thank God our owner did what had to be done" the way it was last year with the manager. More like, "we have a terrible owner who let these two people fail for five years."

Better for Middleton to admit the mistake and correct the problem than for him to let it fester in the hope that he saves face. One of leadership's finest qualities is to accept responsibility for mistakes and to rectify them.

It is probably a record of mediocre drafting and an uneven but necessary implementation of advanced analytics. As for trades, the Crawford-Segura trade was horrifically bad.

One bad move--the Santana signing--begat another--the Crawford-Segura trade.

Some friends and I discussed this over emails earlier today. It's hard to judge Klentak as anything other than a failure at this point. He's the worst GM we've had since Giles acted as his own GM.

[andyb]

One bad move--the Santana signing--begat another--the Crawford-Segura trade.

In hindsight we should have traded Hoskins when we signed Santana. He had pretty significant value then and probably would have brought a comparable young player at a different position or several good prospects (we were clearly rebuilding then pre-Harper).

They essentially traded Santana away for nothing. Even less than nothing as we had to take on salary (Segura AND $9.25 million for Juan Nicasio). So we took on short term and long term dollars when we should have just played Crawford and then used the money saved on something else (the Didi money too would have been spent on something else like the bullpen this year).

[zambonir]

But much as many of Amaro's mistakes were actually things Monty signed off on or actively pushed for, so it is with our current troika. In some cases Klentak barely even got a say. I doubt Middleton is sitting around lamenting the loss of Crawford.

I don't think Williams value is any lower than it was last off-season, other than the circumstantial part. If a team really wanted to pluck him out of AAA last year they could have. Surely Boras would have made it happen if he thought Williams still had value (to him, as someone who might play well and make money in the future). As much as I think it's unfair, the guy obviously has a malcontent's reputation. He had it in AAA the first time, and he had it last year when he briefly refused to report. GMs are a conservative and clubby sort, so we'll see which one might not care about that, or think the Phillies failed him rather than vice-versa.

The funny thing is we'd still might have been better with Santana, and Hoskins has turned into the worst version of what everyone hated about Santana that first year. Right now they are almost the same player, ironically.

[andyb]

I doubt Middleton is sitting around lamenting the loss of Crawford.

He should be. Crawford looks like he could be a 4 WAR SS for the next 5 years. Been on base every game this year I think. I think he has gotten better at the plate because he has stopped trying to hit for power as much.

Williams is just one example. Pivetta. Velasquez. Neris potentially. Eickhoff. Waiting till after the DFA is never a good strategy on prospect trades, especially if you do not think they have a future with you. Williams did have value before last season. Not quite as much as when he was called up, but he probably brings back a prospect that would have ranked in the back end of our top 10. Not a top 100 prospect, but our 5-10 prospects are not that great either. The second we signed Harper we should have had a deal in place for Williams.

[Philsmania]

Jeffrey Lurie needs to take John Middleton on a retreat somewhere and impress upon him how to be an owner. Lord knows, Lurie, now the gold standard for owners in this town, made some whopper mistakes his first few years.

Lurie needs to say to him, "First and foremost, hire good people. Second, stay out of the [expletive deleted] way and let them do their jobs. Third, if the people you hired turn out to be not good people, replace them ASAP like I did with Ray Rhodes and Chip Kelly."

[zambonir]

I agree, and Klentak did not seem terribly enamored of Crawford either. Though I still think all of it is tied up in the long-standing plan to sign Machado (they also probably didn't expect Harper to be available, back when those plans were being made). And it's also tied up in the fact that, starting on the day Middleton went to pick up Arrieta, Klentak was no longer executing his own rebuild plan.

The problem is by the time they signed Harper there weren't many teams left looking for a player, and he's still not that great of one. And they thought his value to the team as a lefty off the bench was greater than his trade value. But then both his usage and his performance rendered that moot. The question is should they have even signed McCutchen? (Would have been an all-lefty OF though.)

We're likely looking at three .500 seasons that could have been achieved just as easily with Crawford, Alfaro and Williams. Though I have not given up hope on this year yet.

Unlike Jeffrey Lurie, Middleton has owned a team for several decades. He may not have been The Guy until recently, but he was still powerful enough to force out Bill Giles. He forced out Monty too, but he was probably on board with the entire Monty era. His choice of MacPhail says a lot more about him than his supposed commitment to analytics and shaking things up.

[Philsmania]

I agree, and Klentak did not seem terribly enamored of Crawford either. Though I still think all of it is tied up in the long-standing plan to sign Machado (they also probably didn't expect Harper to be available, back when those plans were being made). And it's also tied up in the fact that, starting on the day Middleton went to pick up Arrieta, Klentak was no longer executing his own rebuild plan.

Kapler seemed to sour on Crawford too and he LOVED Kingery and really went to bat for him and stuck with him through Heck and high water during that rookie year.

Like I said, though, Middleton being a meddlesome owner appears to be a big part of the problem. He needs to let his baseball people do their jobs. I don't think Monty every forced Amaro to do anything. They were probably on the same page about keeping the old band together and shared their blind faith that the old band would get its magic back. The only case I can think of where Monty may have been meddlesome is when he red-lighted having both Halladay and Lee in 2010.

[andyb]

I think you are putting way too much stock in Middleton's influence. Clearly there was a directive to spend money up to the competitive balance threshold and a decision that it was time to compete. I just think your logic absolves Klentak of too much. Clearly Klentak recommended free agent signings. None of our big free agent signings have been terrible if you take injury luck out of the equation:

Santana - slight overpay but a good player who added discipline to the lineup. Traded too soon off a year where he had good exit velocity and bad luck.
Arrieta - Discounted number of years. He has been worth the dollars though assuming this year is kind of like his first.
Harper - looks good now. Who knows in 10 years but we are a big market team.
Wheeler - too early to say but initial returns are decent
Robertson - disaster largely because of injury. Dollars were not awful.
Neshek - Second time we went to the well it did not work. First time was good though.
McCutchen - Again a slight overpay but he was worth it last year till he got hurt.
Didi - 1 year deal seems a good move now. Just a necessary move after Segura and Kingery were not good defensively at SS.

Keeping Santana and Crawford while trading Hoskins would have taken guts, but it would have saved us from making a bunch of other moves that it turns out have not helped us in the long run. Kingery is now a question mark, but we might have been looking at three quarters of a dirt cheap but productive infield (Bohm, Crawford, Kingery). Championships are made with clusters of inexpensive quality performers (adding Nola to that mix also).

[allentown]

The problem has been identifying the right amateur talent to acquire and then developing those talented youths to their full potential. We have done horribly in that regard. We got Nola and the top picks in most recent drafts seem at least ok, but international has been dreadful and we are still hurting from a lot of very subpar earlier drafts. We were late to the Analytics party. Both MacPhail and Klentak were slow to revamp the system. But, in the end, if you can't develop at least your share of cheap, young, home-grown, positive contributors, then it is very hard for FA signings and trades to get you where you want to be. They both can help quite a lot, but they won't create a WS team. Look at all the topnotch international players in baseball. How many of them did we sign and develop since Ruiz? That has been the killer.

It is a self-perpetuating cycle. The MLB team lacks adequate talent, because amateur acquisition/development is subpar, so FAs are signed to try to at least get the MLB team above .500, but that costs second and third round draft picks and significant international talent, which makes the fundamental problem even worse. I can well understand why Middleton pushed for FAs. Given our success with draft picks and international spending, they start to seem to have very little value if kept.

There seems a lot which still needs fixing among our nonplayer, baseball-side staff.

[Philsmania]

The previous regime (Amaro and Wolever) drafted Nola. Ironically, Wolever's last draft--Nola and Hoskins--when he was probably a lame duck due Wetzler-Monda scandal provided what turned out to be his finest hour. And Almaraz's first two drafts in 2015 and 2016 were staggeringly bad (only Kingery to show for both years combined so far). By contrast, Wolever's last two years produced Crawford, Knapp, Leiter, Jr., Nola and Hoskins who all became MLers (as well as Davis, to an extent). So yes, at the very least, Almaraz's first two years--when the Phillies had great drafting position--were worse than Wolever's last two.

But yes, our scouting is a big problem. With so many organizations downsizing their scouting departments, I got to imagine there are plenty of good scouts out there to be hired to replace the inadequate ones we have.

And, whenever the Nats' or Braves' international scouting director's contract runs out, send him a contract with a blank salary and tell him to fill it in.

[zambonir]

I just don't think Klentak thought it was time to compete at the same level Middleton did. Santana, Hunter, Neshek and Arrieta were supposed to be stabilizing influences for a .500 team. Hunter and Neshek were meant to be flipped but then the team was actually winning, and they didn't stay healthy anyway. I think even last year, left to his own devices, Klentak would have been content to just sign Harper and Robertson, try to get the wild card, and have way more payroll flexibility this year. But he was told to go shopping (and to be fair, he'd been patient with a lot of inherited prospects that didn't work out, so it's understandable he didn't want to do the same with Williams and Crawford). And the market came to him with JT, obviously that was a good move. But it has also locked us into this current boom or bust, with no booms to show for it yet.

At the same time, the argument with last year's team was that with a healthy Cutch and Robertson (among others), they win the NL East. It might even be true. If they had, and came into this season competing for it again, the loss of Crawford (and Alfaro/Sanchez) doesn't sting so much.

[andyb]

I think that is reading way too much into Klentak. Would any GM love having zero pressure to win and 10 years to pull off a rebuild? Sure. But Klentak knew he was going to a big market club that wanted to compete within 5 years. That is also not an unreasonable time frame. And he had a top tier farm system to the outside world as trade chits. It actually does not matter too much that many of the prospects failed in the long run, because then one should say his new team should have evaluated them correctly when he took over.

I don't think making the club a playoff contender in the 2019 and 2020 timeframe was an unreasonable request from Middleton. We just got C level execution and luck on that strategy.

[zambonir]

I mean I'm not trying to make too much of it, and when you take the power to fire and hire a manager out of the GM's hands, that's hardly a good sign. But that move - and firing the hitting and pitching coaches - also said that Middleton believed in the roster. There's nothing Klentak should be fired for this year that he couldn't have been fired for last year.

I do think his seat would be pretty hot in a normal year, but between the 60 games and the tens of millions of dollars lost (which will likely continue next season with only partial attendance) a move is probably not advised. Plus you'd be bringing in new people who couldn't even spend the normal amount of in-person time with their staff.