2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[fish]

PHILLIES - PATRICK BAILEY, C, NCSTATE

Solid (switch) hitter with pop and a solid catcher, he'd be a fine get at #15, though they do need to continue last year's trend of hunting power arms too.

[Squire]

RHP JT Ginn had elbow surgery and is out for the year.

[zambonir]

Well, don't have to worry about college players having CWS fatigue.

[Philsmania]

Well, don't have to worry about college players having CWS fatigue.

No opportunity to scout them though. To some extent, teams will be flying blind with college players this year.

[zambonir]

I assume it will change the math for some senior draftees (both this year and next).

[allentown]

I think you're focusing in the wrong place. College seniors have been scouted extensively already. So have other than the late-blooming juniors. I don't think there will be much incentive for college kids to postpone entry into draft or much more uncertainty on part of MLB teams. No CWS is a big plus, IMHO, to an MLB team considering expending a high draft pick on a collegiate pitcher, since as mentioned above, you avoid the late CWS injury/over-use. What could increase a whole lot more uncertainty for MLB teams is if the H.S. spring baseball season and subsequent H.S. showcases are canceled. There just isn't as much data on a H.S. junior as on a college junior or senior and one extra year of physical development, instruction, and practice means so much more than for a college kid.

[bkeich]

This will also have an interesting issue with the always annoying "havent had our graduation yet" problem with College Players. I am guessing that College Graduations will be delayed this year (maybe).

[andyb]

The college players getting an extra year of eligibility should not be a problem for the draft. Those juniors will go pro anyway and will be allowed to. As for HS seniors - yes the graduation could be delayed a bit.

They always wanted a later draft anyway so I could see them pushing it back a month. Depends on what they wanted to do with short season leagues.

[zambonir]

I would think the extra year will have at least some impact on the draft. It's more leverage for the players. Anyone who's not a sure first-rounder is probably better off going back to school than being one of those high-paid 11th rounders. How many sophomores typically do it? Because they are de facto sophomores now if the NCAA goes through it.

Would be crazy for any kid to stay in school if he has the right opportunity but some kids may still want the experience they didn't get, especially if they haven't been in the CWS.

Would have a huge impact on rosters/scholarships too though.

[andyb]

Some thoughts on the draft from Keith Law. Pushing it back. Shortening it perhaps. Showcases for players. I do worry somewhat the MLB will try to "experiment" with some of the changes they want to make to the draft unilaterally this year.

Law: How do you prepare for the draft when there are no...

[Squire]

BA Updated its Top 300 Prospects. I'll list out the Top 20

1. Austin Martin, SS, Vanderbilt
2. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
3. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
4. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
5. Nick Gonzalez, 2B, New Mexico State
6. Garrett Mitchell, OF, UCLA
7. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
8. Zac Veen, OF, HS (Florida)
9. Austin Hendrick, OF, HS (Pennsylvania)
10. Max Meyer, RHP, UMinnesota - up from previous rank of 30
11. Jarred Kelley, RHP, HS (Texas)
12. Mick Abel, RHP, HS (Oregon)
13. Garrett Crochet, LHP, UTennessee
14. Patrick Bailey, C, NCState
15. Heston Kjerstad, OF, UArkansas
16. Robert Hassell, OF, HS (Tennessee)
17. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, HS (California)
18. Tanner Burns, RHP, UArkansas
19. Nick Bitsko, RHP, HS (Pennsylvania)
20. Austin Wells, C, UArizona

[Philsmania]

High school position players--outfielders, no less--right about where the Phillies will draft. Gulp.

[andyb]

And HS players drafted without seeing their senior year. I would really want to go college in the first round, though after that there might be some 1st and 2nd round talents that slip down because of limited scouting.

[fish]

Robert Hassell- yes please! smooth with thunder. Vandy commit. To me he compares to Kyle Tucker.

[Squire]

I really thought this would be the year we'd grab a College Pitcher but JT Ginn had TJ surgery, Garret Crochet never even pitched and Lacy and Detmers looked so good they climbed out of our range.\

Under my "just don't get nothing out of the first round" theory....If Heston Kjerstad got to us, I'd take him

[andyb]

Assuming they have 5 or 10 rounds with similar slots compared to last time, would a good strategy be to take a under slot player in the first round (like 30%-50% under slot) and then have more for later. This would be the strategy to essentially not have a first round pick. Take a safe late 1st/early 2nd type in the first round, save a million dollars, and then try to take 3 or 4 more second round talents or toolsy flyers in the middle round.

The key thing will be how many players want to be drafted. Some will stay in school, but HS players might have to wait for scholorships or playing time if there are better college seniors around.

Teams with the best scouts probably do well in this draft. Teams with the best analytics might find many of their models don't apply as well to the new environment with less data on each player. Of course that does not make me super confident.

[Philsmania]

This might be the year to draft a guy who had TJ surgery since there may not be much of a minor league season anyway.

[allentown]

No! The greatest chance of hitting is in first round and the greatest chance of accumulating a pile of cash is with a high first rounder. We did the save money and spread it out approach when we had the 1.1 and we know how well that worked -- although the focus was on H.S. in the early rounds of that draft.

[andyb]

This year is different with more uncertainty. That makes the strategy more viable and theoretically we have someone new in charge of the draft. I just hate spending $4 million on a first round player that hasn't been seen in action all year.

[Squire]

Draft may be as short as 5 rounds.