2020 MLB Draft Speculation

[Squire]

That is some nice looking video.

[fish]

That is some nice looking video.

What is hard to make out without a larger sample size is figuring out what makes his fastball hitable. He seems to be around the zone a lot so that could be the biggest factor, but in that video you can see fastballs with a riding 4-seem movement, cutting action, and sinking. Either he's trying to make it do that, or he's got an inconsistent release point. So whether the problem is sequencing or release point, either can be corrected pretty readily.

[Squire]

New BA Mock Up (6/8 - Afternoon)

1. Tigers - Torkelson
2. Orioles - Martin
3. Marlins - Lacy
4. Royals - Veen
5. Blue Jays - Meyer
6. Mariners - Gonzalez
7. Pirates - Hancock
8. Padres - Hassell
9. Rockies - Kerstad
10. Angels - Detmers
11. White Sox - Abel
12. Reds - Hendrick
13. Giants -Cavalli
14. Rangers - Aaron Sabato, listed his full name since I have never heard of him
15. PHILLIES - Patrick Bailey, C, NCSTATE
    Comment: This would seem like the lower range for the North Carolina State catcher, who is routinely mentioned as a top-15 player because of his consistency in the ACC, his defensive chops and the fact that teams love proven college catchers.

Going to be a wild Wednesday

[fish]

I guess I get the interest in Patrick Bailey in theory, but he seems way overrated in the mocks. The guy hit .288 last year and .296 this year. I'm of the opinion that a first round pick should be one of the better performers in their respective talent pool. Those two batting averages don't even rank in the top 50...in the ACC.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I would prefer we go the route of SP or OF.

[andyb]

I also think we have pretty good depth in low minors catching. Pretty much every year we sign a catcher or two among our top Latin American prospects including this year. The pipeline in the upper/middle minors of Grullon, Marchan, O'Hoppe, and Duran are not awful. Bailey might be better, but he also looks more like a 700 OPS bat so it is hard to see how much better he would be.

I just think we have bigger organizational priorities. With so few picks we should go high ceiling (or happily take the pick in next year's draft).

[Squire]

Lauber article at philly.com indicates that they are looking at 10-12 players at the 15th pick. Makes sense with greater uncertainty this year. I liked that number.

[gmwannabe]

I saw in an article that the cardinals get 7 picks in the draft. tell me why again, they get extra picks. 3 million a year in fans
gm

[Squire]

Cardinals do have 7 picks. They have their own pick in each round. They got a compensation pick for losing Marcell Ozuna OF to the Braves. I don't like it either but they do get that Competitive Balance pick each year. This year they traded their Competitive Balance pick in Round A to the Rays but got the Rays Competitive Balance pick in Round B back in the deal.

Giants also have 7 picks (13, 49, 67, 68, 85, 114, 144).

In the Division
Braves (25, 97, 126, 156)
Mets (19, 52, 69, 91, 120, 150)
Marlins (3, 40, 61, 75, 104, 134)
Nationals (22, 55, 71, 94, 123, 153)
PHILLIES (15, 87, 116, 146)

[gmwannabe]

competitive balance, yes. they have more fans then the phils. they probably take in more money during the season. Seems fake to me (at least in the Cardinals situation).
gm

[allentown]

I have no doubt that the Commissioner would tilt the formula to favor an owner and buy their support. The Commissioner is nothing if not political and seemed to have favored owners. This is a Selig relic that needs to go. Not only do the Cards always come close to leading the league in attendance, they also are seldom noncompetitive on the field, as opposed to teams like the Phillies. It's especially galling this year, since we are going with a ridiculously short draft and bonus deferment, in order to save the poor owners $, yet the 'poorer' owners get an extra pick so they can outspend the big spending owners. If the Midwest is so impoverished, why does MLB keep so many teams there? Why was a CA team allowed to relocate? Why not Milwaukee or Kansas City instead?

[andyb]

They should just increase revenue sharing and dispense with these compensatory picks that are kind or arbitrary. These picks are there because of the disparity in revenue anyway.

[bigegypt0417]

https://twitter.com/jeffMLBdraft/status/1270383912099942400?s=19

[andyb]

Not surprising some teams will do this. Next year's JC class will be the best in a long time.

[Squire]

Crazy stuff. If i had to guess, maybe San Diego?

[bigegypt0417]

So would this mean some players will slip lower than expected?

Could a top 10 guy slip due to this possibility?

[bigegypt0417]

If you're barely going to play a season it would make sense you try for two high picks and multiple teams could do it.

[andyb]

I guess it could. I don't expect more than a handful of teams to actually do it but it is not irrational (and it really does not save any money).

I think more of this happens in the 2nd and 3rd round. There is always more certainty at the top of the draft than in the 2nd and 3rd round. If you are a HS player guaranteed to make a $3 million bonus you stay in the draft and sign. If you are a guy who really needed a good senior season to become a top pick you might wait. Guys ranked in the 25-75 range who think they are better than that.

Next year's draft should be better, but it might be better in depth than at the top.

[Squire]

Hearing that the rumored punt team is the Angels at 10. Also hearing that the Phillies like Pete Crow-Armstong.

[bigegypt0417]

kind of a fluff piece on PC-A

Pete Crow-Armstrong: Future D-back?