2019 Win total poll

[tom81]

Let's see what we think what we are in for this year.

• >100
• 96-100
• 91-95
• 86-90
• 81-85
• 76-80
• 71-75
• 66-70
• 61-65
• <61

Show results

[tom81]

I think the starting pitching is going to surprise on the upside and we will have a lot of fun watching this team I'm thinking north of 95 and a playoff run. I think they spent wisely this off-season and will have the means to add at the trade deadline if they see an area that needs improvement.

[phillychuck]

tom, you're right, the pitching is the key. I thought the bullpen was going to be awesome, but there are a couple of apparently broken relievers among the young guys, so Neris, Robertson, Seranthony, and Neshek are going to be thrown into a lot of close games. Hunter needs to get healthy...I don't have confidence in Nicasio, Alvarez, Ramos, or Rios. Morgan I think might have a solid year... Would be nice to add a starter who can eat innings effectively, but I guess Keuchel is not in the cards for anyone, so maybe teams have seen some significant, irrecoverable drop-off.

[zambonir]

I'm not too worried about the bullpen. I think Arano will come around. It's also the easiest thing to address mid-season, whether it's call-ups or trade.

I just think the division is tougher this year. Last year we and Atlanta enjoyed a divison with no Mets and no Nationals, essentially. While things could easily go wrong for those teams (or the Braves themselves) so it is for us as well. I was torn between picking 86-90 or 91-95 but even with all the big line-up changes the latter requires best-case scenarios for too many people (be it Nola or Herrera or the rest of the rotation).

[harrisburghusker]

I'm at 87 wins. I still think the rotation is a weakness

[el-pietro]

I think somewhere between 88 and 92 wins. I've leaned to the cautious side here. I think we will potentially spend the year looking up at a very good Washington team and over our shoulders at New York and Atlanta who finish in the low to mid 80s. I think we will be in the running for a wild card spot, which I think I'm right in saying the Phillies have never won before?

[bkeich]

Went with 86-90, want to say more but I think there will be an adjustment period to get all of these new "key" players working together. I am also not convinced we have a winning manager yet, he hasnt really proven that he can win, smart guy but he did make some poor decisions at times last year.

Since I predicted the lowest win total of anyone each of the last 2 years I guess this is an improvement

[allentown]

I voted 86-90. Lineup better than last year, by plenty. I'm not sure rotation will do as well as last season, especially since Nola can't be expected to deliver another +10 bWAR. Pivetta may be better, however. I'll say 89 wins on the year.

[schooldoc]

I'm in the 91-95 group, but would be on the low end of it to be precise. I feel the starting pitching is the club's greatest question mark, too. But based on what I saw this offseason, I do now believe that the front office will make a deadline deal, if necessary, to make what today might be an 88-win club into that 91-win (and playoff!) club I want to see.

[schooldoc]

FWIW the folks in the know in Vegas have their number at 88.5 or 89 depending on where you shop.

[zambonir]

Wish I could have gotten a bet in months ago

[HopeSpringsEternal]

NL East teams will beat each other up; that leads me to believe 90 wins will be difficult to achieve. I think Vegas is right.

[VoteForKalas]

I went 86-90 wins as well, unsure about the rotation and health after Nola. I think they will need to fortify that at the deadline if things are going well otherwise.

I also am still up in the air about Kapler as a manager

[andyb]

I went 86-90 which is where most of the analytics projections ended up. Interestingly Keith Law is on the high end predicting 90 wins:

Law: Predicting 2019 win-loss record for every MLB team

Law has them winning the Wild Card game (Nats win the division) but losing the divisional series. He has Nola for Cy Young also.

[zambonir]

SI poll today had Phillies as one of the two wild cards (and getting the most votes of any wild card NL team). Dodgers-Astros WS. Nats win the East.

If you think it's an 86 win team it could just as easily be a 90-win team as an 82-win team. And last year they were only a 75-win Pythagorean team, so 88-89 still represents a hefty jump.