2019 Phillies Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

Game's on MLB.TV today.

[el-pietro]

Nola making his spring debut today with what looks suspiciously close to a major league lineup behind him. Arrieta pitched three solid innings over the weekend. Hopefully we see similar from Nola today.

Jim Salisbury (JSalisburyNBCS)

Incidentally I heard a short interview with Nola yesterday reacting to the Harper news. I don't think I'd ever heard him speak before, I was completely caught off guard by his Louisiana accent.

[andyb]

I think the Phillies had the entire first turn of their projected rotation done at minor league camp under controlled circumstances. This is probably the second outing for Nola after a simulated first outing. Maybe the team did not want their best pitches in games under pretty strict 25-30 pitch limits. Let the AAA guys get a reward for a start in front of the crowds.

Bad for the paying fans of course.

Probably an important week or two for Altherr with the other CFs hurt. He has a real shot at a roster spot and maybe even forcing a trade down the road of Williams.

[donaldorc]

with what looks suspiciously close to a major league lineup behind him

Yay! Most except for Harper! Bring him on! (I know, he's scheduled to start on Saturday)

[EastFallowfield]

Some guy with #69 with a walkoff hit for the Phightin' Phils today.

[andyb]

Malquin Canelo I think.

They sure are using many more low level minor leaguers in these games than in past years. More than the ones that get a formal Spring Training invite. Andrew Brown pitched yesterday. Nice velocity. Not a whole lot of command at this point.

[schooldoc]

I don't think we've seen either Robertson or Neshek in game action yet. I wonder what the plan is for them. Probably only need somewhere between 5-7 appearances to be ready, and it's early yet. But I would think we'd see those guys within the next 2-3 days assuming they're healthy.

[bigegypt0417]

Moniak getting extra time around the big league camp could be good.

Bryce Harper spends first day in Phillies dugout giving advice to Mickey Moniak

[David_Criss]

I know it was his first game out there and it was a little cold, but was Velasquez that bad? One inning and two walks and a homer? If they do sign Keuchel and move VV to the pen.......

[el-pietro]

Its probably too early to write VV off. Lets give him a couple more outings before deciding he should go to the pen?

[zambonir]

I seriously doubt that's what would happen anyway. If they sign Keuchel they will either trade someone or demote someone, and Velasquez is probably still ahead of Eflin. Pen is crowded!

[gmwannabe]

Drew Anderson really looking good today. he has been one of my sleepers for years, going back to the minors. hopefully he can pay out and be in the competition for a SP.
gm

[xogfog]

Cozens is having a nice spring, With Quinn, Williams and Altherr, its hard to imagine he makes the team, but hopefully, they can make a trade to open up a spot for him. Would like another power bat on the bench and a DH for interleague. I like Williams, but think he could fetch the best return in a trade.

[julio]

Cozens is having a nice spring, With Quinn, Williams and Altherr, its hard to imagine he makes the team, but hopefully, they can make a trade to open up a spot for him. Would like another power bat on the bench and a DH for interleague. I like Williams, but think he could fetch the best return in a trade.

If Williams is more valuable than Altherr (or Quinn?) as a trade chip, doesn't that imply he would be more valuable on the Phils bench, as well? Do we want to trade the best of our potential fourth outfielders, because that player would get the best return in trade? What do we do if we do that, and then somebody gets injured? Suddenly we have an unproductive hole in the outfield.

Watching spring games, it's not obvious to me that Aaron Altherr, at this point in time, is a better bench outfield option than Lane Adams (non-roster invitee). But regardless of that...do we want to trade a better player to keep our weakest reserve outfielder on the bench?

[xogfog]

Well, it also makes sense to trade Williams if he is unhappy being a bench player, which he might be. I'd rather trade Herrera than Williams, but I don't think Williams can play CF and you can't count on Quinn.

[julio]

you can't count on Quinn.

Yeah.

What's going on with Quinn isn't just bad luck, IMHO. I don't know what it is - diet? Medications/supplements? Exercise/stretching regimens? Genes?

I would think, though, that it should be possible to analyze what's going on there - If he's particularly susceptible to muscle injury... why? What is different? How can that difference be addressed?

This organization is supposedly now committed to analytics. That's good - but analytics isn't just crunching on-field statistics. It involves diet, metabolism, bio-mechanics, etc. The whole package. Get crackin' here, guys. Quinn can be a valuable property - but you need to know what's going on in his body.

[zambonir]

Seems like Quinn has had lots of different kinds of injuries, hard to pin it down. I'd go with genes. And to some extent, his style of play is hard on his body. Training and technique (for sliding or even proper form when running/fielding) could help, but only so much. The team is definitely focusing on all the things you mention, though it's probably newer (i.e. post-Kapler) than the between-the-lines stuff. If he could not be hurt by just doing yoga or Pilates or hydrating better or whatever I think they probably would have thought of that already.

[phillychuck]

Watching spring games, it's not obvious to me that Aaron Altherr, at this point in time, is a better bench outfield option than Lane Adams (non-roster invitee).

Lane Adams is an interesting story. He spent 2009- 2017 (mid-year) in the minors with a cup of coffee (4 games) in the majors with the royals in 2014. He routinely put up 120-ish OPS+'s in the minors with a couple of half-seasons where he was just average. In 2015 and 2016 he hammered AA pitching and held his own in about 2/3 of a AAA season. In 2017 the Braves got him, he put up about a 120 OPS+ in AAA and they called him up. In 2017 and 2018 in the majors he was a 1+ WAR player in about 150 ABs with an outstanding OBP of about .350 and an OPS of .820. To be fair, he played awful in AAA last year for two teams, maybe suffering from the frustration of thinking his chance at a big-league career was slipping away. He has, twice, been a really good part-time MLB player.

He's patient hitter with power (career pro ISO over .160, career pro OBP of over .360, and he's been consistent). He plays all three OF positions, and spends a decent percentage of his time in CF. He stole 31 bases a few years ago in AA which means he ain't slow--fangraphs' scouting report for him in 2015 called him a 70 runner, which is blazing fast.. He has an abnormally high LD% which means he squares up a lot of balls. There is a decent argument to be made that he's the best 4th OF on the roster.

[andyb]

I am not so sure about Adams as compared to Altherr. Adams has been pretty mediocre in AAA. Career 640 OPS, all of which took place at age 25 or higher. He had some decent years in his early 20s but never got out of AA until he was 25 and at that point I start discounting those age 24 and 25 stats.

He was decent in his 2017 cup of coffee in the majors but that was really the first time around the league and mostly against weakened late season rosters in meaningless games. I am decidedly NOT impressed by a 120 OPS+ as a 27-year-old outfielder in AAA in 2017. Then remember he was truly awful in 2018 in AAA (480 OPS).

This is kind of like the backup quarterback argument. Adams does a little bit of everything against mediocre competition and hangs around being average in the minors against younger kids. But there is nothing to suggest he would be a good major leaguer.

Altherr was bad last year, but even his bad is a 628 major league OPS. But he is one year away from an 856 OPS in 400+ plate appearances (so not merely late season). Lane Adams is nowhere near as good as Altherr.

"He has, twice, been a really good part-time MLB player." - That is just a huge overstatement. He has got 154 plate appearances total. So if you think 29 plate appearances is significant last year after he was awful in AAA, well I've got a bridge to sell you....

The issue with Altherr will be losing him if we don't trade Williams and Quinn is healthy. He is our 6th OF and without options will probably be lost if sent down. I doubt Adams would be lost, which tells you a bit about their relative value.

[zambonir]

Well, Adams can't be lost, so that makes it easy. They may yet want to release or trade Altherr and they may yet have to, but it won't be because a non-roster invitee beats him out. A good spring training performance by someone like that gets you noticed and makes you an option for a call-up when needed. If Quinn and Herrera were to both start the season on the DL, could happen.

Nice problem to have, in 2015 he would have been the starting RF!